River Bet?

Let's cut to the chase: $25-50-100, home game, 08.


Flop comes A-4-7. I have a pair of aces in my hand, no low cards in MP.


It's bet to me, I decide to see one bet even though I realize I'm only playing for 1/2 the pot. 4 callers (BTW, this is a loose game)


Turn: 7, giving me nut full house, but vulnerable to quads.


Old Man bets out, passive player(who bet flop) raises, I decide to reraise. If old man had capped, I may have folded. However, old man just calls. PP calls too, indicating that he thinks he'll split low. At this point, I know I'm in the lead.


River: 7, making board A-4-7-7-7. Old man, who is capable of check raising, checks, PP checks.


I was so shocked to see the one card that I could lose to come up, that I automatically checked.


Of course, my hand was good. Old man had 44, for low set. PP had nut low.


How many of you would bet the river here?


Tim

Tim - Let's simplify. The money that's already in the pot belongs to whoever has the winning hand. A bet by you does not affect that money which is already in the pot. You are competing for half the amount bet on the last betting round. This will be $30 if you bet and one of your opponents does not have the case seven. Or it will be $60 if you bet and one of your opponents does have the case seven.


Of the $30, $10 will be yours, so you stand to win an additional $5 if you have the pot won. Of the $60, $20 will be yours, so you stand to lose an additional $20 if you don't have the pot won. Your odds on this last betting round are four to one against you. (As already stated, the money already in the pot has nothing whatsoever to do with the odds for this possible wager of yours. You either have the rest of the pot won or you don't).


The only question for you to ask yourself is, "What are the odds of either one of my opponents having the case seven?"


There are eight cards in your opponent's hands, but you "know" that two of them are the nut low cards held by PP. That leaves 6 unknown cards in the hands of your opponents. Thus you know where 10 cards are. (You see 4 cards in your hand, 4 cards on board, and know PP has 2 nut low cards). Odds of one of your active opponents holding the case seven are 36 to 6 against, or 6 to 1 against. One time in seven you lose $20. The other six times in seven you win $5 each time, a total of $30.


By all means, bet your aces full.


Buzz


(Never a guarantee my math is correct, but I always think it is when I post).

Is this a limit game with an optional $100 on the end? A 3-blind pot limit game?


In pot limit, I assume that if you make a bet on the end here, a nut low (especially a nut low with a pair) will come over the top. It might be a tough call for you.

Tim - I'm asking myself why I wrote $10 instead of $100 as the river bet. But no matter. Your expected profit is simply ten times as much by betting.


One time in seven you lose $200. The other six times in seven you win $50 each time, a total of $300.


Your net expected profit would be $100 per seven times.


As an aside, if you were not able to place the two nut low cards in PP's hand, you still would have a clear bet here. Not quite as juicy, but still a clear bet in a limit game. In that case, the odds of one of your two opponents holding the case seven would be 36 to 8 or 4.5 to 1 against. Nine times out of eleven you'd win $50, a gain of $450 for every eleven times. Two times out of eleven you'd lose twice what you bet (because you'd get raised), a loss of $400 for every eleven times. Your net expected profit still would be $50 per eleven times.


I hate it when I make careless mistakes.


Buzz


Mack, you have me completely convinced to NEVER play pot limit Omaha-8.