How many hands? (when do you really know)

[wahooriver]

I am currently having great success at Empire $1/2 (~6 BB/100) but only have 4400 hands. Currently my bankroll is building nicely and I hope to move up to $5/10 by early next year.

However, I fear that I am just on a rush, and not really quite as good as I think. So how large a sample do most experts believe is necessary to convince myself that I am ready to take the next step?

/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[fyodor]

I am now getting in 20,000 hands in less than 2 weeks. Some will do it in 1 week. That has to make it meaningless.

[naphand]

20K minimum. I think 40K is more like it before a jump to $5/$10. That said, the games I have mined and watched recently are not the aggro games I was lead to believe, they look mostly passive/average to me. Perhaps not as many passive fish, certainly more LAGs but they are not maniacs.

Be sure you can handle aggression, and especially be sure you can handle aggression running bad before you move up. Without this experience you could easily micro-tilt your roll away and find life a bit snakes & ladders.

[spydog]

I think somewhere between 30,000 and 50,000.

I just moved up to 5/10 and the swings can be a lot huger than the lower limits. My first 10k hands, I was up 360BB. The next 5k, I am down 150BB. So, after 15k hands I'm still not sure if I'm a winner. I'd like to think I am, but I think I need another 15k hands.

At the lower levels, I knew I was a winner after 5k hands or so. The play was so bad. 1 out 100 players were TAGs. At 5/10, it seems like 1 out 20, but those that are seem to play 2-4 tables. It doesn't help that I live in Europe now, and I'm generally playing at the worst time.

[spydog]

[ QUOTE ]
Be sure you can handle aggression, and especially be sure you can handle aggression running bad before you move up. Without this experience you could easily micro-tilt your roll away and find life a bit snakes & ladders.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good point. During my bad run, I have found myself playing some very bad poker (just see some of the hands I've posted), which has been exaggerated by the aggression level of some of these clowns. Sometimes it's easy to get caught up in their theatrics and get laggy yourself. The opposite can happen, as well. Getting timid and gunshy can be just as big a killer on the BB/100. Finding the balance in the more aggressive games is essential.

However, I am comforted by a 1000BB bankroll and a long range outlook, thanks to posts by seasoned veterans like El Diablo.

[wahooriver]

This post partially answers my question (and I like having the link). The problem is deciding how statistically accurate satisfies us. Guy McSucker on statistic of true win rate (http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=780339&page=&view=&sb =5&o=&vc=1)