Can a lay down a flopped nut straight to the worst possible turn card?

[phillydilly]

Is this a lay down or a call down on the turn?
Also, is the turn raise a good play to charge single diamonds, or am i just throwing away money at this point?


Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (18.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">BB caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (20.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (30.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Final Pot: 35.25 BB

[jrz1972]

I don't like the turn raise for a couple of reasons. First, there's a pretty good chance you're already beat, so you're just building a pot for BB. Second, a raise doesn't increase the chances of your winnning the hand since nobody with a big diamond is going to fold for 2 bets in a pot this big. So basically the raise doesn't accomplish much for you.

You have to call this one down, but I think you want to call it down cheaply once the T /images/graemlins/diamond.gif comes off.

And be sure to add CO and Button to your buddy list. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[mack848]

I think that a medium or big single diamond is calling any raise on the turn. Your raise does work though, in that that when BB doesn't re-raise, you learn that he may well not have the flush (yet).

Mind you, I'm calling this down at the very least regardless - it's a huge pot. I don't know whether you should raise the river - I think my river play is too passive. You should certainly call.

[jason1990]

[ QUOTE ]
First, there's a pretty good chance you're already beat

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I think he's behind on the turn in this situation less than 35% of the time. But let's be pessimistic and say that he's behind 50% of the time. When he's ahead on the turn, he'll lose to a bad river card maybe 20% of the time. This still gives him 40% pot equity, so raising the turn is correct.

Unless there's some reason to think BB is a tricky player, I would also raise the river.

[phillydilly]

Slight correction to the title, a friend of mine pointed out a joker would have been a worse card

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
First, there's a pretty good chance you're already beat

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. I think he's behind on the turn in this situation less than 35% of the time. But let's be pessimistic and say that he's behind 50% of the time. When he's ahead on the turn, he'll lose to a bad river card maybe 20% of the time. This still gives him 40% pot equity, so raising the turn is correct.

Unless there's some reason to think BB is a tricky player, I would also raise the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Let's forget a moment about whether Hero is ahead on the turn. What cards could come on the river that beat him?

Answer: Any diamond (9 cards), any T (2 cards), any J (3 cards) or any K (3 cards). Each of these cards figures to give somebody either a flush or a boat, and there's about a 37% chance of one of those cards hitting on the river, so you're 20% estimate is too optimistic.

Also, he could end up with a chop when a non-diamond A or Q hits (6 cards). That's another 15% chance of something not good occuring on the river.

Even if Hero's hand is leading on the turn (and it's not a case of seeing monsters under the bed to recognize that there are both flush and boat possibilities out there and that one of these hands would be quite consistent with the pre-flop and flop action), he's scooping this pot less than 50% of time after the river. Granted, if you're really confident that you're ahead on the turn, and you know everybody is coming along anyway, then a pot-equity raise makes sense. But you need to work on your math if you think he's winning this hand as frequently as your estimates suggest.

[DMBFan23]

I would never fold this in this size pot for one bet.

[meep_42]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's forget a moment about whether Hero is ahead on the turn. What cards could come on the river that beat him?

Answer: Any diamond (9 cards), any T (2 cards), any J (3 cards) or any K (3 cards). Each of these cards figures to give somebody either a flush or a boat, and there's about a 37% chance of one of those cards hitting on the river, so you're 20% estimate is too optimistic.

Also, he could end up with a chop when a non-diamond A or Q hits (6 cards). That's another 15% chance of something not good occuring on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're double counting bad cards -- for any diamond to beat him, there can be at most 8 diamonds out, same with all the others (for a K to beat him, a K or T needs to be out, etc). So, a better estimate would be - 8+1.5+2.5+2.5 and +3 for a split card (halved because you get half the pot and won't fold on them) = 17.5 of 46 or 38% you get a bad card on the river, rather than the over 50%. He's got plenty of equity to raise here, I think.

-d

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's forget a moment about whether Hero is ahead on the turn. What cards could come on the river that beat him?

Answer: Any diamond (9 cards), any T (2 cards), any J (3 cards) or any K (3 cards). Each of these cards figures to give somebody either a flush or a boat, and there's about a 37% chance of one of those cards hitting on the river, so you're 20% estimate is too optimistic.

Also, he could end up with a chop when a non-diamond A or Q hits (6 cards). That's another 15% chance of something not good occuring on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're double counting bad cards -- for any diamond to beat him, there can be at most 8 diamonds out, same with all the others (for a K to beat him, a K or T needs to be out, etc). So, a better estimate would be - 8+1.5+2.5+2.5 and +3 for a split card (halved because you get half the pot and won't fold on them) = 17.5 of 46 or 38% you get a bad card on the river, rather than the over 50%. He's got plenty of equity to raise here, I think.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, good point. I still dislike the raise because I think he's often behind here, but yeah you're right that I'm overestimating how often he gets rivered.

[jason1990]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's forget a moment about whether Hero is ahead on the turn. What cards could come on the river that beat him?

Answer: Any diamond (9 cards), any T (2 cards), any J (3 cards) or any K (3 cards). Each of these cards figures to give somebody either a flush or a boat, and there's about a 37% chance of one of those cards hitting on the river, so you're 20% estimate is too optimistic.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're right: 20% is foolish, 37% is correct.

[ QUOTE ]
Even if Hero's hand is leading on the turn (and it's not a case of seeing monsters under the bed to recognize that there are both flush and boat possibilities out there and that one of these hands would be quite consistent with the pre-flop and flop action), he's scooping this pot less than 50% of time after the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
I said he's scooping the pot after the river about 40% of the time, which is less than 50%, so I guess we're in agreement here. As for being behind on the turn, I stick by my claim that he is behind at most 35% of the time. I might be willing to bump that to 40%, but no higher than that.

I didn't think you were seeing monsters under the bed. If I did, I would put these percentages much lower. I acknowledge the consistency of flush and boat possibilities with the action so far, and that is why the percentages are as high as they are. Without any reads on the opponents, these are the percentages I would use.

[ QUOTE ]
But you need to work on your math if you think he's winning this hand as frequently as your estimates suggest.

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, my original (incorrect) estimates suggested he's winning this hand about 40% of the time. Since my 20% figure was a gross error, let's correct that.

If he's behind on the turn 35% of the time, then he loses

.35 + .37(.65) = 59.05%

of the time. If he's behind on the turn 40% of the time, then he loses

.40 + .37(.60) = 62.2%

of the time. So my original suggestion is still correct: he has a about a 40% pot equity. If you want to consider the split pot possibility, there are actually only four cards for which this matters. (We already accounted for what happens when the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif or Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif comes on the river.) One of these four cards comes up 8.7% of the time. Let's assume for simplicity that he will split the pot 50% of the time that one of these cards comes up. Then, if he is ahead on the turn 65% of the time, his pot equity is

.65(.0435)(.5) + .65(.63-.0435) = 39.5%

If he is ahead on the turn 60% of the time, his pot equity is

.60(.0435)(.5) + .60(.63-.0435) = 36.5%

So, frankly, I don't see how it's a question of mathematics here. The only reason not to raise the turn for value is if he believes the chance he's beaten on the turn is significantly higher than 40%. And without any reads on the opponents, I don't see that.

Edit: I just read about the double counting in coming up with the 37%. I hadn't thought about that. That's a very good point. Obviously, this consideration increases all of the equity estimates given above.

[prrthd]

I personally like your Turn raise and there is no way you can lay this down, the pot is huge. I would guess that BB has a made hand on the flop. He cold called 3 bets PF, if he had JJ-AA he would have capped. I would say he has KJs or AQs. The Ten on the turn pretty much gets rid of the TT option. He slows down on the turn because he is afraid of the flush, but then for some reason bets out again on the river. Like I said you have to call this down, did you end up spliting the pot or did you lose to a small flush?

[phillydilly]

just for the record
Lost the hand to JT

[spamuell]

I would have probably folded pre-flop, I fold AQo to an UTG+1 raise without reads.

I think you have to raise the turn. Yeah, that's a really bad card but BB capped the flop, that hardly says flush draw and while he might have a set or two pair which just made a boat, there are lots of potential hands that one could get aggressive with on that flop. Hopefully he has Q9. The fact is, you don't know who has a diamond and perhaps no one has a high one. If the only diamond out is CO or Button, which isn't too unlikely, and they have, say, Jc7d or Ks9d or maybe even like Ac5d (these players are bad) and they fold sometimes, it increases your equity immensely. Ideally, I'd raise the turn and fold to a 3-bet but unfortunately against unknowns, due to the huge pot, I think you're committed to calling down.

I would just call the river and go for the overcalls, you really don't want to be 3-bet again.

This hand would be a lot easier to play with reads.

[prrthd]

Wow, cold called 3 bets PF with JT off. Crazy.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
Wow, cold called 3 bets PF with JT off. Crazy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is an instructive hand for exactly this reason.

When you look at the action, BB's actions look suspicious. What kind of hand could he possibly have that would call two cold out of the BB (as opposed to capping) that would then justify going nuts on the flop, slowing down on the turn, but then leading off again on the river? Maybe there's a magic hand out there that's consistent with this action, but BB is not Phil Ivey; he's presuamably a typical PP .5/1 player who is incompetent. Using deduction to put him on a hand is probably an exercise in futility.

It seems quite likely that BB has made a mistake somewhere along the line. There are two main possibilities:

1. He made a mistake calling pre-flop.

2. He's making a mistake in reading the board.

At least in my experience, mistake #1 is far more common than mistake #2. Nobody who reads these forums would call with JT out of the BB, but there is a class of players on Party who will do this routinely. We've all made a lot of money off of them, but every once in a while they do actually hit the flop.

That's why its wrong to look at the post-flop action and deduce that Hero's straight is probably good "because there are hardly any BB cold-calling hands that beat him." It's true that there are hardly any LEGITIMATE BB cold-calling hands that beat Hero, but our idea of a cold-call and BB's idea of a cold-call are probably very different. Inferring from the pre-flop action that Hero's hand is probably good on the turn is giving BB way too much credit.

[spamuell]

[ QUOTE ]
It's true that there are hardly any LEGITIMATE BB cold-calling hands that beat Hero, but our idea of a cold-call and BB's idea of a cold-call are probably very different. Inferring from the pre-flop action that Hero's hand is probably good on the turn is giving BB way too much credit.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you are prepared to accept that we can't accurately read BB's hand because he could have misplayed it pre-flop, why won't you accept the same about post-flop? People do wacky things the whole time, there's no reason to assume you don't have the best hand.

[jrz1972]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's true that there are hardly any LEGITIMATE BB cold-calling hands that beat Hero, but our idea of a cold-call and BB's idea of a cold-call are probably very different. Inferring from the pre-flop action that Hero's hand is probably good on the turn is giving BB way too much credit.


[/ QUOTE ]

If you are prepared to accept that we can't accurately read BB's hand because he could have misplayed it pre-flop, why won't you accept the same about post-flop? People do wacky things the whole time, there's no reason to assume you don't have the best hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

He might very well be screwing up post-flop. In this case, he clearly IS screwing up his post-flop play as well. (Why no 3-bet on the turn when his boat comes in?).

Again, this is just my experience, but what I see most often is players who cold-call too much and play too passively post-flop. If you had a read on BB as a maniac or LAG, then yeah I would tend to discount his post-flop action. But in the absense of any particular read, I tend to assume that when a pre-flop coldcaller gets aggressive, he probably has something that matches up well with the board regardless of whether that "something" justifies a pre-flop coldcall.

I'm not saying to lay this hand down. I'm calling the turn and calling the river. I'm just saying that Hero is beaten a lot more often than we'd all like to think.

If the turn card had put *just* a 3-flush on the board, or if it had *just* paired the board, then yeah sure I would go ahead and raise this turn. In this case, though, the turn card provides a couple of different classes of hands that beat you.

[Yobz]

Hasn't anyone else noticed that hero is 3-betting preflop with AQo??? This is a folding hand, not a re-raising hand!!

[crockett]

Spam,

#1 I think this turn decision is a nice debate and I don't know what I would do because I think it's more of a "in the moment" decision. I guess that is why there is so much debate.

#2 I see what your saying about drawing a conclusion that if people play poorly pre-flop they will continue that poor play post-flop but I think your grossly over generalizing.

In my experience with 0.5/1 Party (20K+ hands) is that a fair number of people (35-40%) play horribly pre-flop but play "intelligently" post flop. They bet when they have a good hand, raise when they have a really good hand, call when they have a draw and fold when they have nothing.

I got in the bad habit of when I first started at Party of having this thinking of "Oh just another Party character betting and raising with nothing" and it costs me a lot of bets. For example, in this hand I pretty much forget about pre-flop and I ask myself "what would someone cap the flop with (and could a horrible pre-flop player reasonably hold these 2 cards) and would this turn card help him" and this is why I would side towards NOT raising this turn BUT I think the discussion has merit on both sides.

And totally off topic here but I think Party has earned a reputation that is not or no longer deserved. For example, so many people treat SSH as a bible (and probably deservedly so) but don't realize that 0.5/1 at Party is not a loose game by SSH standards. 6-8 to a flop is very much the exception not the norm. Maybe 0.5/1 used to be like this at one time. Loose game concepts (large pots) come up but not as often as it seems to be repeated here.

[MasterShakes]

You can't possibly lay this down. I think you played it perfectly. SSH recommends folding AQo to the UTG raise, but if you have a read on the guy as a loose raiser, then the 3-bet seems ok to me. I generally just dump AQo to that raise. Once you're to the flop, I think you played fine though.

[Reqtech]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't possibly lay this down. I think you played it perfectly. SSH recommends folding AQo to the UTG raise, but if you have a read on the guy as a loose raiser, then the 3-bet seems ok to me. I generally just dump AQo to that raise. Once you're to the flop, I think you played fine though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I could've sworn that SSH says to fold nonsuited to a cold call, except for AK and AQ, and you should raise with those.

[phillydilly]

Reposted the hand with results, take a look how this played out, amazing!!!

The full boat never bet or raised!

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (18.50 SB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(6 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 raises</font>, MP1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero 3-bets</font>, CO calls, Button calls, <font color="CC3333">BB caps</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (20.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls.

River: (30.25 BB) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, Hero calls, CO calls, Button calls.

Final Pot: 35.25 BB

Results in white below: <font color="white">
BB has Ad Jc (two pair, jacks and tens).
UTG+1 has Ks Qd (two pair, kings and tens).
Hero has As Qc (straight, ace high).
CO has Jh Th (full house, tens full of jacks).
Button has 6d 6s (two pair, tens and sixes).
Outcome: CO wins 35.25 BB. </font>

[jrz1972]

The way I handle AQo after a raise tends to depend on the situation. If the raiser was first in and nobody has coldcalled, then I almost always 3-bet to get heads-up with the raiser. If several people limped in front of the raiser, or if several people have already coldcalled, I fold. I'm not a big fan of just calling with this hand.

I would always fold AJo unless conditions were just perfect. I would always 3-bet with AKo. So I figure AQo is a judgement situation.

[jrz1972]

Button deserves a bust in the Buddy List Hall of Fame.

[phillydilly]

I agree with your raise/fold line of thought, there was one caller in between us, and i was looking to knock every one else out and have position. I think if you can buy the button, this is a positive play, although by the slimmest of margins.