lorinda
11-09-2004, 08:53 AM
Yes, yes, I know, ROI is far more important.
Anyway, I've given links to this (http://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/binomialX.html) site a couple of times recently and it's gone down like a lead balloon.
It occured to me that people see all the math formula and turn off, so I figured I'd give a quick guide as to how to use it.
(I have no idea who's site it is, it's probably just some student's project or something, and it's not a gambling site)
It basically tells you the chances of certain yes/no events happening, but you can use it both ways.
Scroll through all the math (Unless it interests you) and go straight to the calculator.
The only data it requires are:
n= (number of events) = number of sit n goes played.
k= (the number of stipulated yes results) = number in the money
p= (the probability of k )= probability of getting in the money
Well it wants p, but p is what we want to know... soooo.
Put in your number of games, we'll use 100 as an example.
Let's say you cashed in 45 of these and want to know your true probability of getting in the money.
put 100 in for n and 45 for k.
You say you feel like you've been unlucky and that you should ITM 51% of the time, so put in p=.51 and let's find out how unlucky you needed to be.
Click calculate.
Now read down to the 45 or fewer section.
You are now reading what odds you are of having won 45 or less from 100 given that your guess of 51% is correct.
You will now see that if you really do ITM 51% of the time, you will win 45 or less from 100 0.1356, or 13.56% of the time.
Now let's do it again with a smaller sample size.
Let's say we played 12 sng's and believe we are a winning player.
We cashed in NINE of those 12, surely we are amazing.
We must get ITM 45% of the time in the long run surely.
So:
n=12
k=9
p=.45
So, we'll get ITM 9 or more times from 12 3.557% of the time, even if our % is 45.
Now 3% might seem small, but 3% shots happen all the time, so you could EASILY be below 45% despite cashing 9 in 12.
Sorry for the convoluted post, but this is a nice little tool for estimating your ITM rate, and also for showing how important sample size is.
Have a little play around, find out your .999 range and your .001 range, you may be surprised.
Lori
Anyway, I've given links to this (http://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/binomialX.html) site a couple of times recently and it's gone down like a lead balloon.
It occured to me that people see all the math formula and turn off, so I figured I'd give a quick guide as to how to use it.
(I have no idea who's site it is, it's probably just some student's project or something, and it's not a gambling site)
It basically tells you the chances of certain yes/no events happening, but you can use it both ways.
Scroll through all the math (Unless it interests you) and go straight to the calculator.
The only data it requires are:
n= (number of events) = number of sit n goes played.
k= (the number of stipulated yes results) = number in the money
p= (the probability of k )= probability of getting in the money
Well it wants p, but p is what we want to know... soooo.
Put in your number of games, we'll use 100 as an example.
Let's say you cashed in 45 of these and want to know your true probability of getting in the money.
put 100 in for n and 45 for k.
You say you feel like you've been unlucky and that you should ITM 51% of the time, so put in p=.51 and let's find out how unlucky you needed to be.
Click calculate.
Now read down to the 45 or fewer section.
You are now reading what odds you are of having won 45 or less from 100 given that your guess of 51% is correct.
You will now see that if you really do ITM 51% of the time, you will win 45 or less from 100 0.1356, or 13.56% of the time.
Now let's do it again with a smaller sample size.
Let's say we played 12 sng's and believe we are a winning player.
We cashed in NINE of those 12, surely we are amazing.
We must get ITM 45% of the time in the long run surely.
So:
n=12
k=9
p=.45
So, we'll get ITM 9 or more times from 12 3.557% of the time, even if our % is 45.
Now 3% might seem small, but 3% shots happen all the time, so you could EASILY be below 45% despite cashing 9 in 12.
Sorry for the convoluted post, but this is a nice little tool for estimating your ITM rate, and also for showing how important sample size is.
Have a little play around, find out your .999 range and your .001 range, you may be surprised.
Lori