Fold JJ here?

[rjb03]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (6 handed)

CO (t1610)
Button (t1235)
SB (t3125)
Hero (t4170)
UTG (t2260)
MP (t1100)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Button raises to t1235</font>, SB calls t1160, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t2620

Unfortunately, no real reads here (multi-tabling with 2 tables on the bubble, 1 ITM).

[rjb03]

$10+$1, btw.

[adanthar]

With no reads, I'd call and see what the flop brought but I can't fault a fold either.

Pushing is probably bad considering you're getting called no matter what and he has a good chance of having you beat. I might push as a smaller stack but there's no particular reason to gamble as a huge stack.

[Moovyz]

I think a fold here is a pretty weak/tight play. The raise is typical of these types of SNG, way too big in relation to the blinds. It smells of a small pair or A,9... simply not wanting a call. I doubt you could possibly have been behind at this point.

I would have raised all-in to freeze out the 3rd player and taken my chances. The 3rd player is not quite "pot-commited" and should only call with a premium hand. JMHO

[rjb03]

The pusher wasn't what had me thinking. Obviously an easy call if it came to me without any others sticking around.

[Phill S]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a fold here is a pretty weak/tight play. The raise is typical of these types of SNG, way too big in relation to the blinds. It smells of a small pair or A,9... simply not wanting a call. I doubt you could possibly have been behind at this point.

I would have raised all-in to freeze out the 3rd player and taken my chances. The 3rd player is not quite "pot-commited" and should only call with a premium hand. JMHO

[/ QUOTE ]

ok. firstly the raise is less than 10BBs. if i were button id raise here with AA-22.Ak-A2. KQ and so on. i dont think you can possible put him on anything more than two cards...

you would call BUT SB has flat called a third or more of his stack. (apologies, dont have the thread to hand, im going off memory)

he has 3K, hero has 4K and change. the only significant stack on the table in heros point of view just flat called a huge proportional bet.

id like to know if hero has any real reads. but if he doesnt or if the spidey sense doesnt feel right then im folding no question.

if i remember my math its about 25% likelyhood an over card will flop. and what if he bets?

and what if he doesnt and he has us already.

and what if he doesnt but he bluffs his AK all in and hits on the turn or river.

i dont like playing AA three way, so im not playing JJ here. fold. if he knocks the guy out great, if not what can you do, its not a significant point in the game yet that you need to take such risks with your stack.

Phill
ps, one thing thats worth a mention is you may have seen the big stack check down an all in in the past. if so im leaning to a call because its 7:1 you spike trips on flop, around 5:1 you spike by the river and a chance he'll just check it down with you. but even with this thought im still not calling

[rjb03]

[ QUOTE ]
ps, one thing thats worth a mention is you may have seen the big stack check down an all in in the past. if so im leaning to a call because its 7:1 you spike trips on flop, around 5:1 you spike by the river and a chance he'll just check it down with you. but even with this thought im still not calling

[/ QUOTE ]

Good point. I was thinking just that. If I call will he check it down? I didn't know so I just decided to play it safe and fold.

[rjb03]

Just combed through the tourney HH and found this hand which is the only hand shown down that shows how he got his stack. Would this help anyone make a decision even though it doesn't give much insight into his preflop play? He is the button by the way, NOT MP.

$10+$1
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (6 handed)

MP (t1365)
CO (t1210)
Button (t1900)
Hero (t3995)
BB (t3055)
UTG (t1975)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG folds, MP calls t100, CO folds, Button calls t100, Hero folds, BB checks.

Flop: (t350) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">MP bets t200</font>, Button calls t200, BB folds.

Turn: (t750) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP bets t300</font>, Button calls t300.

River: (t1350) 3/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">MP bets t400</font>, Button calls t400.

Final Pot: t2150

Results in white below: <font color="white">
MP has Th Td (two pair, tens and threes).
Button has 8h 8c (full house, eights full of threes).
Outcome: Button wins t2150. </font>

[lastchance]

Shows a bit of looseness, calling off the stack.

Eh... It's a $10+$1... Really hard decision here when he could have a lot of hands (well, not really, but enough to make moving-in correct).

[rjb03]

He was the button. What struck me was that he didn't raise the turn with the set or especially the river with the full house. What the hell was he afraid of?

[lastchance]

Yeah, not raising the river sucked.

[captZEEbo1]

yeah who knows what he was thinking with that 8's full, he probably didn't even realize he had a full house.

I think there is a pretty good chance sb will lay down his hand here. If he has a hand like AQ, he'll probably call your reraise allin, just b/c it's a $10 sng. This fold is okay, just b/c JJ isn't that strong. You're in really good shape for the money, and this isn't the BEST time to gamble it. But it's not a horrible time either. It's allin or fold for you. It's definitly a pretty decent allin though. You're likely to be ahead of button, as he will probably have Ax or a pocket pair (not QQ+). It'd be very very unlikely that sb has you beat either. He can have anything from KQ to Ax to any pocket pair.