Figuring Odds to Hit a Hand Tell me if this is wrong

[ofcrtville]

I have Read many posts and read many articles and have concluded that i am a math flunky. Please tell me if this is right or wrong, if i converted my percentage to x to 1 odds correctly. And remember that i am about 7000 steps below Mike Caro in the math dept so use simple man terms. Ok this is how i was taught to figure your odds to hit a hand. We will say dealt As Kh in a ten handed game, Flop comes Ad 6c 4s.

Deck of cards 52
Ten players -20
Flop - 3
Total Cards left 29 / 11 outs to make either 3 kind or two pair for 2.63 % or 1.63 to 1 that i would hit a hand on the turn. or to hit trips my odd would be 29/2 for 14.5 or 13.5 to 1.

Thanks very much in advance, Also if you know any sites that i can go to or other posts please include them for me. i have read so much that sifting throught 1000 post to find what i need gets tiresome

[Dave H.]

You're missing something very basic here; otherwise, I think you have it down. Here's what you're missing: it doesn't matter how many players there are. All that matters is how many cards you have seen! After the flop, you have seen your 2 hole cards and the 3 flop cards. So, where you use 29 in your example, you should be using 47 (52 minus the 5 cards seen). Other than that, you're fine.

[BruceZ]

Also, if you really did have 11 outs out of 29 cards, that isn't 2.63%, it's "1 in 2.63" which is the same as "odds of 1.63-to-1". If you want percent, divide outs by total cards and multiply by 100. 11/29 = .379 = 37.9%. Of course you really have 11 outs out of 47 unseen cards, not 29, as someone else pointed out.