AJo in MP - How weak am I?

[meep_42]

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (6 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, <font color="666666">2 folds</font>, BB calls, <font color="CC3333">UTG 3-bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Flop: (12.50 SB) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero calls, CO calls, BB calls.

Turn: (8.25 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, Hero calls, CO folds, BB calls.

River: (14.25 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks.

Final Pot: 14.25 BB

-d

[JerseyTom]

Hmmm, dunno.

On the flop, you're ahead of exactly 0 limp-reraising hands (I've never seen anyone limp re-raise with KQs). Without a more substantial read, I might fold this flop. Once you hit your A on the turn, though, you're in this for the long haul.

Prediction: BB takes it down with A6o?


Tom

[jay1313]

Weird hand, I guess with A /images/graemlins/heart.gif that the BB picked up the small flush, UTG either has AA or AK and feared the flush. I think probably fold the turn to save your bets, I am guessing you are in third.

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, dunno.

On the flop, you're ahead of exactly 0 limp-reraising hands (I've never seen anyone limp re-raise with KQs). Without a more substantial read, I might fold this flop. Once you hit your A on the turn, though, you're in this for the long haul.

Prediction: BB takes it down with A6o?


Tom

[/ QUOTE ]
On the flop, he's ahead of a LOT of limp-reraising hands. Don't make the mistake of thinking that fish who LRR necessarily have a good hand.

I've been LRR'd be J5s, 65o, 35o, 35s, as well as AA-QQ. The proportion of crap to good hands I'm LRR'd with is about 50/50.

As far as the hand goes, I bet the river more often than not, but it's the slimmest of really really slim value bets.

Rob

[meep_42]

What about the turn? A cold call feels really wrong.

-d

[jay1313]

I don't disagree with you, I have shaken my head at a few LRR, but mostly they are following the Ken Warren Screws You up....I mean, Teaches Hold'em advice of LRR with big pairs. I would probably fold in this position, simply because of the high probability of at least a little two pair from the BB and the probability of the overpair from the UTG. But if you were going to play, I guess the raise would be the way to go, but I have a hard time seeing both players folding on the river to a bet. But then again, I have gotten my TPTK killed by so many times lately by sets that I am begining to see pairs in my sleep /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[Entity]

[ QUOTE ]
What about the turn? A cold call feels really wrong.

-d

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a good hand to post, because I think it's pretty tough. If UTG is reasonable, there is enough possibility that he has something like K/images/graemlins/club.gifK/images/graemlins/heart.gif, and is raising to try to get the pot HU against one person he thinks he can beat. If he isn't reasonable, though, he could simply be working to try to steal the pot. With no reads and generally passive players, I think calling the flop is OK -- I only fold here with this pot size when it's two cold to me.

I've seen a fair amount of LRR with weaker offsuit aces from guys who just get tired of me raising (yeah, 3-betting me with a worse hand will really help), and calling them down has been very +EV. The only LRR hand you're behind on this turn is AA (slim possibility of AK), but I think 3-betting here is wrong, and I'd like to get to a showdown as cheaply as possible.

Then the river comes, and I don't have a clue what they could have. I've got a range, however, and I think you're ahead of that range 2/3 of the time. I've become the sort of player that likes to make very slim value bets, but I acknowledge that they're only slightly +EV, and I'd also really hate to get raised here. I definitely don't hate checking the river, but I (personally) would probably bet it.

Rob

[jay1313]

How did this come out? I am interested in knowing. My showdown percentage is hovering right at 50%, which is not horrible but I am interested in improving it and hand reading is something I am really working on.

[meep_42]

UTG had KK or JJ
BB had a weak A
MHIG.

-d