zaxx19
11-07-2004, 10:45 PM
In tournament play be it MTT or STT variety pot odds are pretty much uselss imho. This as we all know is bc of the going broke effect or gap effect or whatever...So instead of pot odds I believe we should create another probabilty called tourney win odds- or cash coefficient: It would represent the differences in probability of a player winning a particular tourney or STT, or the added cash equivalent of the gains in chips to be expected by a pot won.
E.G.:
I'M @ 3200 chips blinds are 100-200 and am pretty out chipped in a MTT the odds of me winning given the present situation given 35 players left might be 2.0% if im an avg player. My cash coefficient would be 2% of the cash pool?
if now i pick up AK suited and there is an all in to mei might pass knowing im almost certainly a small dog.. but perhaps since my tourney win odds would be shifted dramatically 7.5?? that it is now considered a correct play
2.5-7.5= .050x prize pool x(.48)the chance winning the pot?..... while .025(from .025 too zero if you bust)x prize pool... i hope it is clear where im going from this even though it is messy at this stage. I really believe this is just a systematic way of thinking about marginal decisions in tournaments., But then again pot odds are just systematic ways of thinking about call decisions in poker so....
E.G.:
I'M @ 3200 chips blinds are 100-200 and am pretty out chipped in a MTT the odds of me winning given the present situation given 35 players left might be 2.0% if im an avg player. My cash coefficient would be 2% of the cash pool?
if now i pick up AK suited and there is an all in to mei might pass knowing im almost certainly a small dog.. but perhaps since my tourney win odds would be shifted dramatically 7.5?? that it is now considered a correct play
2.5-7.5= .050x prize pool x(.48)the chance winning the pot?..... while .025(from .025 too zero if you bust)x prize pool... i hope it is clear where im going from this even though it is messy at this stage. I really believe this is just a systematic way of thinking about marginal decisions in tournaments., But then again pot odds are just systematic ways of thinking about call decisions in poker so....