Unusual semi bluff, good or bad

[BobboFitos]

PStars .5/1. I'm in the big blind with ~110, MP has 70, SB just sat and bought in the max. (But he's not important)

I get dealt 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Folded to MP, who raises to 4$. SB calls, I call. Pot 12$ minus rake.

I've never played with SB, MP is aggressive who likes to open raise when folded to him with a wide array of hands, but he's a good player.

Flop comes A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/club.gif
SB checks, I check, MP bets 12, SB quickly folds. I push.

Comments appreciated...

[willie24]

i really like it.

of course its a huge gamble, but i think its a good spot for it. hes going to be hard pressed to call you with anything less than 2 pair. you have to know that he's capable of folding AK though to try this.

if he calls with a high ace you have 6 outs which isn't that bad. if you lose, this is decent advertising.

[BobboFitos]

Well... Maybe I was the only one who felt this was a semi interesting hand. Perhaps my results will induce a little bit more discussion, as people here do better with results oriented thoughts.

He called after using a tiny bit of time bank, I hit my 4 on the river.
He had AQo...


As for the semibluff, even though I got lucky and won, I dont know if this was a good move or not. I liked it even though I got lucky, but he ranted at me for a tiny bit of time. (Saying he "knew" I had a set but thought I could've had a weaker ace, too... He really didn't expect to see 4s I think) I feel my all in here folds a bunch of hands of which he'd raise with, (such as 9s to Ks) and maybe fold a weaker Ace. (He would open raise with AJ, but if he called with AQ, I think he calls with AJ, too; I didn't expect him to fold an ace in this spot, but I also wasn't TOO far behind an ace) He also would've open raised with something like KQ, first to enter, and fire at the pot as the PFR, so I expected he would fold that, too.

Hopefully this sparks like one or two more posts.

[cornell2005]

no, really bad.

you know mp very likely has a high ace. the last thing you want to be doing in lower nl games is trying to make bad players fold top pair hands. i wouldnt even make this move if the game was 3/6 and knew the player is capable of folding hands. the risk/reward is way out of whack here. also consider that many players wont fold any ace hand here. last, this is pretty much a pure bluff, not a semi bluff.

[willie24]

against a high ace he is 25% to win at showdown. id say that qualifies this as a semi-bluff

[Cornboy]

I think that this is a great play under certain circumstances. Against an unknown player, obviously it's not ideal. But against the type of agressive player who may well be raising with a wide variety of hands both pre and post-flop, it's a good agressive play. I'd also second the comment that you need to know that you're playing a guy capable of laying down an ace with a high kicker.

To sum up, in the situation you describe, I like the play.

[Bob Moss]

I can't believe anyone agrees with you on this play. Sure, you would probably bluff a pocket pair here, but there's no way an Ace is folding here. And furthermore, there's no reason to push. Why risk your whole stack on the hope that he doesn't have AK AQ AJ whatever?

Bob

[Stork]

You really think theres no way a high ace would fold this? I wouldn't believe that...

[Tilt]

I agree with BK. Its low EV. You are throwing in $66 to win $24 if he folds. Bad odds, even with a few outs. He could already have a set and then you have only 4 outs.

[Wayfare]

Terrible, dont ever do that again.

You are semi bluffing with like 6 outs at best. You are essentially bluffing.

[Kaz The Original]

I'd like it better if there weren't two diamonds.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
And furthermore, there's no reason to push. Why risk your whole stack on the hope that he doesn't have AK AQ AJ whatever?

[/ QUOTE ]

"your whole stack" is only 66 dollars. if he folds you win $24 right now. if he calls you without a set, you will have $156 1/4 of the time, and zero 3/4 of the time. that works out to $39 on average, which is $27 less than you have right now. so you are risking $27 to win $24, which means he would need to fold 53% of the time for this to work. add in the possibility that he has a set, and i would guess that 60% is conservatively fair. so...did you think there was a 60% chance he would fold? if you did, then i think it was a good play.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like it better if there weren't two diamonds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats interesting;
makes it seem like I'm not semibluffing with the flush draw. But - the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif was out, so I'm not semibluffing with the Axs hand, and I think my opponent in this spot is observant to know I'm not calling any raises with Kx suited.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
no, really bad.

you know mp very likely has a high ace. the last thing you want to be doing in lower nl games is trying to make bad players fold top pair hands. i wouldnt even make this move if the game was 3/6 and knew the player is capable of folding hands. the risk/reward is way out of whack here. also consider that many players wont fold any ace hand here. last, this is pretty much a pure bluff, not a semi bluff.

[/ QUOTE ]


Thanks BK - I knew he wasn't folding a high ace, but I felt he could very well have a higher PP or even KQ type hand; he was going to follow up his bet regardless.

I really couldn't decide if this is something I should do more often, I guess it was frustration kicking in about not setting, and thinking this was an ample spot to still win the pot.

Although I wouldn't play an ace here like this, I still think my opponent with something like JJ would give me credit for being behind, so I had folding equity there... Thanks though

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
You really think theres no way a high ace would fold this? I wouldn't believe that...

[/ QUOTE ]

Even when I pushed I really didn't expect him to fold a high ace, either... But he would fold a bunch of other hands that he would've raised with. (Some I was beating anyways, like KQ, but some I'm losing to like TT I think)

And I do think there's a good chance he'd fold AJ, he did take some time with AQ too.

[DBowling]

I dont like it really. Im not sure of the quality of players at pstars, but if this is party poker, i know youre getting called by a high ace. Maybe even a low ace; definatly A2, A4.
So pretty much i think you have 0 fold equity vs an ace. He'll likely fold any non-ace hand though, if thats what you were going for. If, however, you think he'll fold a big ace, this could be a profitable play.

[schwah]

very bad play

he will likely call with a decent ace and you are drawing to 6 outs

if you put him on a lower pp then raise to $30 or so... at least you don't get stacked if you're wrong..

but i don't think you should be doing that either.. just fold it

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
if you put him on a lower pp then raise to $30 or so... at least you don't get stacked if you're wrong..

[/ QUOTE ]

if you do this you will still probably get stacked if you are wrong. if you raise to 30, and he reraises allin- you have odds to call assuming he doesn't have a set. why give him the chance to do that? just raise allin if that will even slightly increase the chance that he folds.

[amoeba]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you put him on a lower pp then raise to $30 or so... at least you don't get stacked if you're wrong..

[/ QUOTE ]

if you do this you will still probably get stacked if you are wrong. if you raise to 30, and he reraises allin- you have odds to call assuming he doesn't have a set. why give him the chance to do that? just raise allin if that will even slightly increase the chance that he folds.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think villain will raise all in with a mid pocket pair with that ace showing.

if villain comes over the top, you fold.

[Randy Burgess]

As a long-time limit hold'em player, I've only been playing NL for a month, so take my comments with a grain of salt.

Phil Hellmuth, TJ Cloutier and other top players all decry what Hellmuth calls the "slider" mentality common to inexperienced Internet players. I see a lot of it in my live baby no-limit games ($1/$2, $500 max buy-in): guys willing to bet their whole stack on a not-very-strong hand. Typically they get away with it a few times and then get taken to lunch when they run up against a real hand. Yesterday a guy slid in on me with top pair, King kicker on a small straight-gap flop. Well, in fact I had flopped the nut straight, and there went his stack. I suppose he thought he was "semi-bluffing" too - figuring even if he didn't have best hand, he could get me to fold a better hand like two pair etc.

So I would characterize your adventure here as a "slide," not as sound tactics or strategy. You got very lucky drawing out, but the hand is mostly interesting to me as an example of what not to do.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]

I don't think villain will raise all in with a mid pocket pair with that ace showing.

if villain comes over the top, you fold.



[/ QUOTE ]

Of course he won't. if he has an ace, you still have odds to call his allin, considering that you have 6 outs. actually, you are right at that point where folding and calling would be about equal. the point is, you won't be able to save yourself anything by folding to his reraise allin, so if you're going to raise, you must raise allin to begin with.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
As a long-time limit hold'em player, I've only been playing NL for a month, so take my comments with a grain of salt.

Phil Hellmuth, TJ Cloutier and other top players all decry what Hellmuth calls the "slider" mentality common to inexperienced Internet players. I see a lot of it in my live baby no-limit games ($1/$2, $500 max buy-in): guys willing to bet their whole stack on a not-very-strong hand. Typically they get away with it a few times and then get taken to lunch when they run up against a real hand. Yesterday a guy slid in on me with top pair, King kicker on a small straight-gap flop. Well, in fact I had flopped the nut straight, and there went his stack. I suppose he thought he was "semi-bluffing" too - figuring even if he didn't have best hand, he could get me to fold a better hand like two pair etc.

So I would characterize your adventure here as a "slide," not as sound tactics or strategy. You got very lucky drawing out, but the hand is mostly interesting to me as an example of what not to do.

[/ QUOTE ]

Excuse me... But TPWK has runner/runner outs vs the nut straight in your example...

It was next to impossible for this player to have flopped the straight, (holding 2-4; I had 2 4s, and he raised preflop...) so I assumed all my outs were clean. Big difference between a semibluff with a 30% win rate vs a top pair weak kicker "bluff" with a 2% chance of winning.

pokenum -h ac qs - 4d 4c -- ad 3d 5c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5c Ad 3d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Ac 690 69.70 292 29.49 8 0.81 0.701
4c 4d 292 29.49 690 69.70 8 0.81 0.299

In addition, Hellmuth and Cloutier are referring largely to tournament play where sliding is often a "more correct" strategy due to small stack to blind ratios. My all in, after "calling" his 12, wasn't too much of an overbet of the pot, and probably the same way I'd play a set. (Although hoping he WOULD call me with an Ace)


As for sound tatics, this isn't a play I would normally make, which is why I posted it; for feedback. So far there has been some positive and some negative, so I really don't know what to think.

[willie24]

what he did here was not nearly as bad as leading out allin on the flop would have been had he had top pair, good kicker.

the reason of course being that he still has a 25% chance against almost all the hands that button might call with.

what he did was by definition a semi-bluff. i think his stack size relative to pot size was almost perfect for this to work.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont like it really. Im not sure of the quality of players at pstars, but if this is party poker, i know youre getting called by a high ace. Maybe even a low ace; definatly A2, A4.
So pretty much i think you have 0 fold equity vs an ace. He'll likely fold any non-ace hand though, if thats what you were going for. If, however, you think he'll fold a big ace, this could be a profitable play.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was PStars.

I'm not sure why everyone is so insistant that the real question is whether he will fold a high ace to me; I really didn't think he would, but still thought it was the right play. This is not a person who is only raising PF with AA KK AK; he would open with 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, AJ, maybe AT, KQ, maybe KJ. Given his hand ranges I felt that my fold equity was sufficient, it was just unfortunate he DID have a high ace this time.

As for a semibluff not being a real semibluff with 6 outs, where do you draw the line? If you move in with an OESD, that's only 8 outs; changes it from ~25 to 31%. Flush draw? 9 outs, typically 36%.

Given the fact I also had a backdoor flush draw, I was just under 30% to win the pot anyways... Plus this wasn't a bad play for me at the time because far too often I'll call a raise, check, and fold it; I dont know if this is necessarily weak-tight, but I need to find more places to play back, and I felt this wasn't bad.

Just to reiterate, I really understand what BK/Way/Scwa are saying, but given the fact that he would open with a bunch more hands, (and make the same bet thereabout with those hands) is the move still wrong?

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure why everyone is so insistant that the real question is whether he will fold a high ace to me

[/ QUOTE ]

this is part of the question. the real question is whether or not he will fold at least 60% of the time. if he will, you push, if he wont, you fold. obviously if he is willing to fold a high ace, he's much more likely to meet your requirement. i suppose it is possible though for him to meet it without folding high aces, but only if you are very confident that he has any one of a wide range of hands.

[DBowling]

If he has any of those other hands, you could have raised to $30 and he would have likely folded or raised. Then youd know where youre at. I dont think youd be pot commited yet either.
I also dont really like to count your backdoor flush outs, simply because you cant be sure he doesnt have a diamond in his hand, and you know if he does, its higher than yours. Count it is 1/2 out if youd like maybe

[Triumph36]

So what? Bottom pair usually has 5 outs. Are you saying it would've been a good play to go all in with K3, which has five outs? Granted if you hit one on the turn he has redraws, but that's still true even with 44 (outs to chop, granted, the point remains the same)

Going all in with an OESD or a flush draw is terrible at these levels as well, I'd never make that kind of move. If your opponent is offering you odds to hit one of those draws, call, if he's overbet your odds, fold. Very few opponents will drop a good portion of their stack into a pot and fold to a raise. And I happen to like it that way.

[thatpfunk]

[ QUOTE ]
but given the fact that he would open with a bunch more hands, (and make the same bet thereabout with those hands) is the move still wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. Very wrong. Why do you feel that you need to take a stand in this hand? You are risking a lot, to win a little, and will only be called by hands that you are behind (which is almost any reasonable hand).

There are better spots. You can't count 4d as a back door flush draw, you have no way of assuming that would be good. If you want to semi-bluff, wait until you have position on your opponent, sense some weakness, go for it. Betting on 6 outs and the hope that he didn't hit an ace seems like pure gambling to me.

Also, if you look at the players who are telling you this is bad (BK, Way, etc) you will probably find they are much more reliable posters than those who like this play.

[willie24]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if you look at the players who are telling you this is bad (BK, Way, etc) you will probably find they are much more reliable posters than those who like this play.

[/ QUOTE ]

i suggest making this play against wayfare...I think he would fold the ace! (wink)

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
If he has any of those other hands, you could have raised to $30 and he would have likely folded or raised. Then youd know where youre at. I dont think youd be pot commited yet either.


[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't be pot committed, but he would; he had 70 to start the hand, so my stack size is irrelevant. After his PF bet + flop bet he has 56 left, so if I pop to 30, and he moves in, it's just 26 for me to call... And I think I'm committed to calling that. I like what Willie said in regards to why moving in is better than a 30$ bet.

My all in (really, putting him in) was 12 + 12 + 4x3 = 36, so the 56 I'm really betting is slightly bigger than the pot, (I guess this would've worked better if he had slightly fewer chips, but then again, he may be more inclined to call w/ more hands) but it's an ok number imo.

[ QUOTE ]
also dont really like to count your backdoor flush outs, simply because you cant be sure he doesnt have a diamond in his hand, and you know if he does, its higher than yours. Count it is 1/2 out if youd like maybe

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont like counting backdoor outs either, and when I was thinking at my computer, I didn't count them. But the fact is in this given situation I did have those outs, (and if he did have a high ace, he only has a 1 in 4 chance of having a high diamond; think about it) so it DOES bump my % of winning up a notch.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, if you look at the players who are telling you this is bad (BK, Way, etc) you will probably find they are much more reliable posters than those who like this play.


[/ QUOTE ]

You and I both know that doesn't mean that the given move was neccessarily right or wrong.

However, you do have a point...

[ QUOTE ]
Yes. Very wrong. Why do you feel that you need to take a stand in this hand? You are risking a lot, to win a little, and will only be called by hands that you are behind (which is almost any reasonable hand).

[/ QUOTE ]

The thing is... I'm risking 56 to win 24 when I'm not called... And when I am I should still count ~25% equity.

I'm not going to argue this anymore, and I normally wouldn't make this move, (I'm far more ABC, just thought this was an interesting hand) but I think it has merit. Not that I'm saying raising all in was better than folding, but once again, it has merit. I think.

[Wayfare]

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=1228174&page=&view=&s b=5&o=

Kabam.

[okayplayer]

Ok, I know there's already a bunch of replies to this, but here's my 2 cents...
I don't really like the c/r here... If you know he won't fold an Ace, then why not lead out into the pot, to see if he has an Ace? If he does, he'll probably come over the top, and if he has a lower PP (like you were hoping to get your c/r to fold), then there's a very good chance he'll fold to your bet. Plus, it's a lot cheaper.

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, I know there's already a bunch of replies to this, but here's my 2 cents...
I don't really like the c/r here... If you know he won't fold an Ace, then why not lead out into the pot, to see if he has an Ace? If he does, he'll probably come over the top, and if he has a lower PP (like you were hoping to get your c/r to fold), then there's a very good chance he'll fold to your bet. Plus, it's a lot cheaper.

[/ QUOTE ]

I like this except...
If he smooth-calls I'm in a quagmire. He "probably" has an ace, but I have no gauruntee to see the river, and he can bet the turn, ostensibly making me pay a pot to catch a 6 outer w/ 1 card.

If I dont improve, do I give up? If I improve, can I make any additional money? Thats the only problem with leading out; leaves just enough money to make the turn tough.

[willie24]

touche!

[okayplayer]

Well, if he calls, then he most likely has an ace, and I would give up unless improving on the turn. If you don't improve, I don't think there is any way you're going to win this if he has an ace. I think you will stack him however if you hit your gutshot (or set), because he can't put you on that.

Leading out accomplishes the same thing as a c/r but for much less. The only thing it doesn't let you do is see the river, but do you want to see the river putting in your whole stack as atleast a 3:1 dog?

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
Leading out accomplishes the same thing as a c/r but for much less. The only thing it doesn't let you do is see the river, but do you want to see the river putting in your whole stack as atleast a 3:1 dog?


[/ QUOTE ]

Not that this changes MUCH, but I'm putting only 70 of my 110 in as a 3:1 dog... But you are right.

I have a question though... Pretend I have a set, (lets say 3s rather than 4s) how would you play it to get all the money in? In this case I'm not really afraid of any draw he could possibly have, so perhaps I wouldn't checkraise all in, probably check/call and checkraise the turn.

[pittisit]

If you think this player will call your huge check raise on flop with AK AQ (which many people do at this level and he DID) then why not get it all in there. dont give him a chance to see a scare card on the turn and possibly think about folding.



As always correct me if iam wrong!!