To: Mr. Peterson, Buzz and Chaos

This game is not called 2 card manila, i am aware of that game and i know that this game is completely different.


0) everyone ante's $2 and the blinds are $2 - $2

1) each player receives two hole cards

2) a community card is dealt (there is no preflop betting round)

3) Action goes as in holdem the person left of the BB acts etc....

4) There is a no limit betting round on the first community card.

5) the remaining players who have called all bets see the 2nd community card. ANotehr round of no limit betting occurs.

6) then the last community card is dealt. Another round of betting (no limit)....then a showdown for the best five card poker hand. Two hold cards and three up community cards.


In this game you can easily protect your hand. How???

Well many people in this game dont understand outs and odds etc. So when someone bets the pot and they have A9 on the first community card of 9 they will call not understanding that if someone has an overpair they are dead to 5 outs and the odds dont justify chasing etc.


Another reason that this gams is good -

if you have say KK and raise ($25) on the first community card most people drop. Except one and at maximum two opponents. So, if you have KK and the first up card is a 10. and you raise it to $25 and only one player calls. its pretty obvious that he has a 10 7, 10 8, 10 9, 10 10, 10 J, 10 Q

10 K, 10 A or JJ, QQ, AA.

He doesn't not have anything else because he would fold. There are several fishes in this game that would certainly call with 10 9 in the hope of catching their cards because they believe its correct and many people consider them pros.

Where was I? Oh yes, so if he calls then the next community card is dealt J. Now he checks, well its pretty clear that you should go ahead and bet the pot again or even half the pot if you want some action.


Thats the rules of the game. Why i asked about the probabilities of being dealt aces and trips etc. Because i want to know what the chance of someone having trips on the first community card when i have aces? or what is the chance someone has a pair greater than mine example i have QQ first up card is a J what is the probability that someone out of the remaining 12 opponents will hold KK or AA? etc...


Finally i just want to say, thining the field is very easy all you have to do is make a pot sized bet and usually the only opponents that will play are the ones who have a pair (ie hold 10J first card is a J)with either a weak, medium or strong kicker or a person who has an underpair. They dont slowplay in this game especially Aces and other strong hand only trips, so you can tell very easily if your behind or not.


-MJ

Well that game certainly sounds like fun, terrifying fun, but fun anyway.


Having only 3 community cards leads to one pair, or 2 pair holding up much more often. If you can get in cheap it might be worth taking a card for a straight flush draw. Catching a straight or flush should be a big pot winner, especially if you can catch someone slowplaying trips.


With only 3 community cards used and a short deck a flush should beat quads. It would also be a very fine linr between a straight and full.

"A flush should beat quads ...."

haha very funny, if we have a total of 5 cards (two hole cards and three community cards) its impossible for someone to have quads and another person having a flush lol.


It is a very good game, that if you play correctly can lead to big wins. My first time i won $800 and everything i did was clear cut and simple with no tough decisions that you usually face in holdem.


-MJ

MJ - You have provided enough information about the game for me to be able to answer some of your questions.


1. You asked, "What is the probability of a player being dealt a pair of Aces." "(there is no preflop betting round)"


29*28/2 represents the number of possible two card hands your opponents could hold when you see your own hand and the flop card. You know the whereabouts of three of the 32 cards and don’t know where the other 29 are. There are thus 406 possible hands your opponents could have.


When you have been dealt a pair of kings, and when the first community card is a queen,


6 of these hands involve a pair of aces. (They are AsAh, AsAd, AsAc, AhAd, AhAc, AdAc).


The probability of any one of your opponents being dealt a pair of aces is thus 6/406.


If you have eleven opponents, the chance of one or more of the eleven holding a pair of a aces is approximately 0.16. Roughly one sixth of the time, when you hold a pair of kings, one or more of your opponents will hold a pair of aces. You have the highest pair in the hole the other five hands out of six, when you hold a pair of kings.


(It's not much different for twelve opponents, about 0.17 and a bit more than a sixth of the time).


2. You asked, "What about being dealt trips (such as QQ and the first upcard being a Queen)."


When you have been dealt a pair of kings, and when the first community card is the queen of spades, there are three ways an opponent could have flopped a set of queens. (QhQd, QhQc, QdQc). Similar reasoning would hold for any other queen (Qh, Qd, or Qc). When the first community card is a queen, there are 3 hands an opponent could have been dealt with a pair of queens.


Thus 3/406 is the probability any one of your opponents being dealt a pair of queens.


If you have eleven opponents, the chance of one or more of them holding a pair of a queens is approximately 0.08. Roughly one twelfth of the time, when you hold a pair of kings, and when the flop is a queen, one or more of your opponents will hold a pair of queens.


This is in addition to the possible ways an opponent might have a pair of aces. Thus, all in all, the probability that an opponent has your pair of kings beaten when the first community card is a queen (or anything other than an ace or king) is approximately 0.24. Roughly one hand out of four, when you hold a pair of kings, one of your opponents will have you beaten. You rule (at least temporarily) the other three times out of four.


3. You asked, "Suppose I hold JJ and the first community card is a 7. What is the probability that someone holds QQ, KK, or AA and how do calculate these probabilities in different situations???"


Remember from above the probability of an opponent originally being dealt a pair of aces in the hole? The probability that an opponent has been dealt a pair of kings or queens, when you have a pair of jacks, is exactly the same.


With a pair of jacks, four possible holdings are ahead of you when the first community card is a seven. They are 77, AA, KK, QQ - and their respective probabilities when you have eleven opponents are approximately 0.08, 0.16, 0.16, and 0.16. The total is approximately 0.56. Since the probability is greater than one half, one of your eleven opponents probably has you beaten when you hold a pair of jacks.


4. You asked, "Suppose you hold J9 and the first community card is a 9. What is the probability of catching a Jack to make two pair. I know you have 3 outs so how do you calculate this."


The whereabouts of 3 jacks and 26 other cards are unknown. Any of these, from your perspective, could appear as one of the next two community cards on the board.


The probability of the second community card *not* being a jack is thus 26/29. Then, once the second community card has been turned and it is not a jack, there are still 28 cards the whereabouts of which are unknown, and 25 of them are *not* jacks. Thus the probability of the second community card *not* being a jack is 25/28.


This time the individual probabilities are multiplied together to get the combined probability of the second and third community cards *not* being a jack. (26/29)(25/28) = 0.800. This, added together with the probability either the second or third community card *is* a jack, must equal 1.000. Thus the probability of catching a jack on the second or third community card to make two pair is 0.200. One time out of five you will make two pair with your jacks in the hole.


Let me hasten to mention that there are better hands for you than two pair, jacks over nines, jacks full, for example. (You did not ask about these hands, but I'll tell you anyway, since it is really what you should want to know here).


The other possibilities of improvement are JJ, J9, 99, 9X in addition to JX. The possibility of *not* catching any of your 5 key cards (nines and jacks) on the next two community cards would be (24/29)(23/28) = 0.6798. Thus the possibility of improving your jacks in the next two community cards, a number you should be much more interested in than making two pair, is 1-0.6798 = 0.3202. Roughly one time out of three your jacks will improve while the other two times out of three they won’t.


All things considered, a pair of jacks in the hole seems a very weak and tenuous holding in this 32-card-deck game when the flop card is not a jack. Any lower pair in the hole would be worse when you don't flop a set. You can, based on what I have calculated and written above, probably make your own assessment of the playability of queens and various other hands.


Hope I finally have the game straight. Seems like it might be interesting. By the way, what do you call it?


Buzz

Hi Buzz, Thanks for your analysis i greatly appreciate it. I think your calculations seem very accurate and i now understand that i shouldn't be raising with pairs of atleast QQ, KK or AA in the holes. I know that it is also possible to be raising with JJ when i am in late position on when several players have only limped in (this rarely ever means they are slowplaying Aces and KK). I only know of two people who try for a limp reraise with AA and KK other players mostly play straight. I understand that i should be folding Jacks to a raise from a solid player and probably play them against loose players, What do you think? I think position is extremely important in this game and by the way there is also another major important rule here in this game:


YOU CANT THINK, thats right when its your turn you must act within 1-2 seconds if you even think about your action then your hand is declared dead no matter if you have trips or whatever. The ONLY time you can think is if someone moves all in. So, the game is very fast and money flies in so fast you wont believe it. At first minimum pot is probably about $100 and then as the night goes on it becomes more like $500 - $1000.

The game is called TIMO, yes its weird. I asked why they call it this and the players said because if you have a pair on the first upcard it means TIMO in another language so thats what they call it. So , if you have AK and the 1st upcard is a K then you have TIMO with an Ace.

By the way whats the probability of being dealt AK and the first up card is a K or Ace?


Thanks again your a great contributor and i appreciate all your helpful tips and comments.


-MJ

Hi again Buzz,

I went through your post again. The reason i asked what the odds of you improving to two pair is because when you improve to trips you have a weak nine kicker which you usually should dump if there is a bet (this is no limit) so you never really have good odds to justify you chasing for your nine for a full house on the last card. So improving to two pair is actually better than improving to trips when you have weak or medium kickers (7 - J), Offcourse if I had AJ and the first card was a Jack and i was in late position i probably would raise the pot and take it from there.


Thanks again,

-MJ

MJ - You wrote, " I understand that i should be folding Jacks to a raise from a solid player and probably play them against loose players, What do you think?"


Having never played this game, and knowing nothing about your opponents peculiarities, I'm not qualified to render an opinion. However, since you have asked, I don't think I'd want to be playing a pair of jacks when the flop card was not a jack against decent players in a no-limit game of timo.


There are two opposite effects, opposing tendencies involved here. (1) It's a lot easier to get a good hand when the deck has only 32 cards as opposed to 52 cards. (2) It's a lot harder to make a good hand when you only have five cards from which to choose. I'd guess, off the top of my head, that some kinds of hands, like two pair, aces over, would be a lot more likely in timo than in Texas hold 'em while other kinds of hands, like straights and flushes, would be a lot less likely in timo than in Texas hold 'em. But I haven't checked it out, so it's just a gut feeling. On the basis of that gut feeling, with a pair of jacks, I'd be very worried about someone having a higher pair - and with two pair, jacks on top, I'd be very worried about someone having a higher two pair. But that's just a gut feeling. Especially with no thinking time allowed, in a no-limit game of timo, I'd generally dump the jacks if the flop wasn't a jack, regardless of the action in front of me.


"I think position is extremely important in this game"


I would agree with you. Should be very similar to no-limit Texas hold 'em in this regard.


"and by the way there is also another major important rule here in this game:

YOU CANT THINK, thats right when its your turn you must act within 1-2 seconds if you even think about your action then your hand is declared dead"


Wild! No-limit with a no-thinking rule! I can see why you want to get matters worked out for yourself ahead of time.


"whats the probability of being dealt AK and the first up card is a K or Ace?"


When you have neither an ace nor a king, the probability at least one of your eleven opponents has been dealt exactly A-K is roughly 0.35 or 0.36, something like that - a little better than one chance out of three. But if the up-card was a king, wouldn't you also wonder about the chance of an opponent holding K-K or K-X and want that included in your estimation?


Wouldn't you be looking at the cards in your own hand and wondering what the probability of an opponent having you beaten was? And then, of course, you'd want to know something about how each of your opponents played. If the probability of something occuring is 0.35, although the odds are about two to one against it, if you take the chance, one time out of three you'll get bitten - and in no-limit, that means badly bitten.


The key here seems to be reading your opponents, and from what you have written, you seem to be on top of that.


Just my opinion.


Buzz

"improving to two pair is actually better than improving to trips when you have weak or medium kickers"


I get it. That's not immediately obvious. It might seem as though you would prefer trip nines to two pair, but if you make trip nines, so might one of your opponents.


I should have seen it. The same thing happens in Omaha-8 (my game) when you make trips with 2-3-4-5 in your hand and 2-2-9 on the board. The person with the other deuce is going to have you out kicked when neither of you makes a boat. And if you both make boats, yours is almost surely the loser.


Wait! With jack-nine in your hand, nine on the flop, and nine on the turn, there are 1*27 ways an opponent could have been dealt a nine. That's out of 28*27/2 = 378 possible hands your opponent could have been dealt. Considering that you have eleven opponents who would also be playing X-nine if the flop was a nine, the probability one of your original eleven opponents was dealt A-9, K-9 or Q-9 would be approximately 0.33. Only roughly one time out of three, I think, would your trip nines with a jack kicker be beaten by trip nines with a better kicker.


I don't know if improving to two pair is better than improving to trips or not (except that you state it is). Two pair is very likely in this game, but maybe not if your opponents immediately fold to a bet when they have no pair in the first three cards.


Buzz

"the probability one of your original eleven opponents was dealt A-9, K-9 or Q-9 would be approximately 0.33. Only roughly one time out of three, I think, would your trip nines with a jack kicker be beaten by trip nines with a better kicker."


Sorry. That is slightly in error. 0.35 is the probability an opponent was originally dealt A-9, K-9, or Q-9, and, assuming that opponent stayed in the hand when the flop card was a nine, has you out-kicked, not 0.33.


I must have punched the wrong button or not cleared my calculator before doing the calculation. Whatever. You want to see my latest thinking on the problem? It's below.


Never a guarantee my math is correct the second time around either.


Assuming you would properly bet your hand to protect it when you hold jack-nine and the flop is a nine, I do agree that you are better off catching a jack to make two pair than catching a nine to make trips, but I'm not sure trips is necessarily a disaster. (Trip nines with a jack kicker would definitely not be a disaster in a limit game of timo, since you are favored).


If the shoe is on the other foot, if you have A-A, K-K, or (maybe) Q-Q when the flop is a nine, I guess you bet to protect your high pair.


Thus if someone bet into you, or raised, you have to very scared about A-A, K-K, Q-Q, J-J, 9-9, A-9, K-9, or Q-9 when you hold J-9 and the flop is a nine. I'm back to not liking J-9 much when the flop is a nine, especially out of position.


Buzz


Not necessary for you to read what is below. Just my jumbled up thinking in doing the calculation.


If you can see J999, there are 28 cards left from which 22 cards have been distributed to your eleven opponents. For the moment, think of this as one hand with 22 cards. What are the chances of the case nine being included in these 22 cards?--choose 22 from 28--too big a number to deal with--try it the other way-- thinking out loud here--choose 6 from 28--more managable. O.K. 376740. There are 376740 possible combinations of the 6 cards (from the original 28 after you know the location of 4 cards) that have not been distributed to your eleven opponents. Of these 376740, 27*26*25*24*23*22/720, or 296010, do not have a nine (and therefore the remainder, 80730 do have a nine). The probability of not having the case nine included in the cards that are not distributed is: 80730/376740 = 0.21429. If the case nine is not included in the cards that are not distributed to your eleven opponents, then the case nine must have been distributed to one of your opponents. Thus the probability one of your opponents has the case nine is (1 - 0.21429), or 0.78571.


So roughly, when you see J999, 78.57% of the time one of your eleven opponents was originally dealt the case nine. 21.43% of the time, none of your opponents was originally dealt the case nine.


Of the 27 cards remaining, 12 cards are higher than your jack, 12 cards are lower than your jack, and 3 cards are the other jacks. Thus the probability of anyone who might hold the case nine having a higher card than a jack is 12/27.


O.K. we're ready to figure the percentage of possible occurances when you hold jack-nine and see nine-nine on the board after the turn.


21.43% of the time none of your opponents was dealt the case nine.

78.57%(12/27) = 34.92% of the time an opponent was dealt the case nine and, assuming that opponent is still in the hand, has you out-kicked.

78.57%(12/27) = 34.92% of the time one of your opponents was dealt the case nine but you have that opponent out-kicked, assuming that opponent is still in the hand.

78.57%(3/27) = 8.73% of the time one of your opponents also holds jack-nine, assuming that opponent is still in the hand.