Floppage

[sfer]

Live 4/8. UTG limps, UTG+1 (Evan) limps, folded to me in MP3 with A /images/graemlins/spade.gif 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and I limp along, CO limps, SB completes, Evan's friend checks in the BB.

6 to the flop for 6 SBs. Flop is 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif. SB checks, BB bets--he's bet a lot of flops and subsequently checked a lot of turns--, UTG calls, Evan folds, I raise...

Routine? Meh?

[Rubeskies]

I assume this raise is because you have a "strong draw" with a gutshot and an overcard giving you around 7 outs plus a BD flush draw giving 8.5. You also might have the best hand or get a better hand behind you to fold possibly cleaning up your 5 outs.

Indeed this is a good draw and your raise can buy you outs and possibly a free card. I'm pretty sure if enough call it's also for value. I like it.

[MHarris]

Looks standard to me.

[Tosh]

I prefer calling. If BB might check the turn anyway the free card angle is less necessary. With a caller and only 2 others players left to act, I just want to take a look at the turn card.

[Chaos_ult]

You value a BD flush draw at 1.5 outs?

I'm thinking more like .5, But i still like the raise.

[Rubeskies]

You're saying the pot isn't big enough to attempt buying outs yet and would prefer to keep customers to build the pot?

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
You value a BD flush draw at 1.5 outs?

I'm thinking more like .5, But i still like the raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is addressed in SSHE.

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
You value a BD flush draw at 1.5 outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ed Miller gives strong reasoning to value a BD flush draw at 1.5 in SSHE.

[Chaos_ult]

Can someone post this reasoning here, since I don't own that book?

[Rubeskies]

The actual odds of a BD flush coming by the river is 23-1 giving it the equivalent of 1 out. When it doesn't come in on the turn you fold saving a bet. And when it does come in you have high implied odds because nobody expects you to have the flush because it came runner runner.

So the ease of playing it plus the implied odds give it a value of 1.5 outs.

[Chaos_ult]

Excellent, thank you.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
You're saying the pot isn't big enough to attempt buying outs yet and would prefer to keep customers to build the pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm saying that if the BB will often check the turn anyway its possible we don't need to try and 'buy' a free card. There not that much scope here for buying overcard outs either IMO.

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm saying that if the BB will often check the turn anyway its possible we don't need to try and 'buy' a free card. There not that much scope here for buying overcard outs either IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

We don't know he will check so there might be some value in trying to buy the free card but your point is valid.

As far as buying outs, don't you think that because we are obviously in this pot for the long run because of the draw, should we maximize our chances of winning? That includes cleaning up outs and maybe getting a better hand to fold like a low pair. Do you disagree that a raise won't accomplish this or do you think that it isn't worth the extra SB (only one since we are at least calling) to maximize our chances to win this pot?

[bunky9590]

Well.... If I continue to play there, it's sure gonna be for a raise. Most likely buys me the button as CO is gonna have a hard time cold calling two on this rag board. You have a gutter draw, 1 overcard and backdoor nut flush draw. Looks like a buy the button possible free card play on the turn if you whiff.

I sure as heck don't call there. It's a raise. But, I raise alot cause its fun.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
We don't know he will check so there might be some value in trying to buy the free card but your point is valid.

[/ QUOTE ]

No but we never know for sure if a free card play will work either.

[ QUOTE ]

As far as buying outs, don't you think that because we are obviously in this pot for the long run because of the draw, should we maximize our chances of winning? That includes cleaning up outs and maybe getting a better hand to fold like a low pair. Do you disagree that a raise won't accomplish this or do you think that it isn't worth the extra SB (only one since we are at least calling) to maximize our chances to win this pot?

[/ QUOTE ]

Any bigger ace has 2 overcards here, they're not folding.

[Tosh]

Bunky, the options are call or raise. Its not a case of if we continue to play.

[bunky9590]

[ QUOTE ]
Bunky, the options are call or raise. Its not a case of if we continue to play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. Thats kinda what I was getting at, I can't fold, I can't "just" call, so raise is my only real option.

[BottlesOf]

You need to own that book.

[Tosh]

Ok fair enough, it just sounded like you were saying you'd raise or fold.

[StellarWind]

The backdoor flush draw is worth about 1.5 outs if you are making a call/fold decision on the flop.

The backdoor flush draw is worth only 1.0 outs if you have a river-committed hand and are considering raising your draw.

[StellarWind]

This is a pretty sad draw. Maybe it should be valued at 6 outs (gutshot = 4, ace no kicker = 1, backdoor flush = 1). I don't see enough benefit to raising. Call and see what develops. You may want to let this one go on the turn if you don't improve.

[Evan]

I agree.

By the way, when did you check raise me? I think your location would be more accurate if it was, "Getting limp reraised by Josh...finally."

[blackaces13]

This draw is pretty weak and your overcard outs are dubious at best. An ace may just wind up costing you more bets if it does hit with that many people in.

If the pot had been raised pre-f then I'd raise here because there is more of a pot to fight over and the small % of times I save myself the pot with the raise or the times I buy a free card would be worth a lot more.

As it is I think I'd just call and try to peek at the turn cheaply.

[thirddan]

deleted...

[sfer]

I'm still pretty neutral between calling and raising. The pot is small and the BB might check the turn anyway.

Anyway, it was folded back to the BB who called along with UTG. The turn was a blank, checked around, the river was a blank, checked around. BB had something 3 for nothing pair, UTG had 44 and it was g00t.