Fold a set based on a hand previously played?

[Garland]

Location: Ultimate Bet
Stakes: $.50/$1 No Limit
Players: Fairly loose passive at this stage.

This is a hand that's been playing in my head over and over.

I raised UTG with KK and get one caller. The flop came A high with two hearts. I basically pot it, and get called. I figure I'm done with the hand until...

The turn brings a K, but completes the flush. I bet big again and he pushes all-in for a significant amount.

On a previous hand, he had passively played a limped set of Kings on a monotone flop very passively when I flopped the 2nd nut flush in my big blind and didn't bet when I checked to him on the river (I KNOW, I KNOW. I should have bet instead of trying to trap him).

This is the read I had on the other guy on a hand I played in the big blind:

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (10 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

CO ($30)
Button ($27)
SB ($111.25)
<font color="C00000">Garland ($94.25)</font>
UTG ($129.75)
UTG+1 ($44.50)
UTG+2 ($101.25)
MP1 ($35.50)
<font color="C00000">MP2 ($112.75)</font>
MP3 ($34.75)

Preflop: Garland is BB with Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif. MP2 posts a blind of $1.
<font color="666666">4 folds</font>, MP2 (poster) checks, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls $1, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, SB completes, Garland checks.

Flop: ($4) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets $4.5</font>, <font color="CC3333">Garland raises to $10</font>, MP2 calls $10, CO folds, SB folds.

Turn: ($28.50) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Garland bets $25</font>, MP2 calls $25.

River: ($78.50) 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Garland checks, MP2 checks.

Final Pot: $78.50
<font color="green">Main Pot: $78.50, between Garland and MP2.</font>

Garland has Qd 6d (flush, king high).
MP2 has Kh Ks (three of a kind, kings).
Outcome: Garland wins $78.50.

This is the hand that I had a tough time deciding what to do.

Ultimate Bet No-Limit Hold'em, $1 BB (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

Button ($66.50)
SB ($23.25)
BB ($99)
Garland ($110.75)
UTG+1 ($130.75)
MP1 ($97)
MP2 ($98.25)
CO ($70.75)

Preflop: Garland is UTG with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="CC3333">Garland raises to $3.5</font>, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>, CO calls $3.50, <font color="666666">3 folds</font>.

Flop: ($8.50) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Garland bets $6</font>, CO calls $6.

Turn: ($20.50) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">Garland bets $14</font>, <font color="CC3333">CO goes all-in for $61.25</font>, Garland ????.

[KidPhil]

Here's my thought: If you think he has 2 hearts, but doesn't have the Ace or the King, that the heck does he have to have called your raise to 3.50 preflop?

[willie24]

kidphil makes a great point about the ace and king of hearts being out of play. if you win 1/3 times you have to call. i am almost positive you can meet this requirement. hands i wouldn't be surprised to see him flip: 33, 77, AQ (especially with queen of hearts), qj hearts, jt hearts. AK seems very unlikely but i suppose its possible. of these you only lose to qj and jt hearts, both of which would be folded preflop by most players, and remember you have 10 outs against both of those hands.

[Garland]

I indeed folded my set of Ks based on how my opponent played his hand previously with a set of KKs against my flopped flush. To the people who suggested who would call a $3.50, I would remind them that this is a loose low limit game and that it's not totally inconceivable my opponent called with J/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif or some over variation of hearts.

I hope I didn't make a mistake, but I just don't see my opponent going over the top with two pair or even a baby set based on how he played the other posted hand.

Thanks for everyone's comments.

Garland

[GimmeDaWatch]

[ QUOTE ]
I indeed folded my set of Ks based on how my opponent played his hand previously with a set of KKs against my flopped flush. To the people who suggested who would call a $3.50, I would remind them that this is a loose low limit game and that it's not totally inconceivable my opponent called with J/images/graemlins/heart.gifT/images/graemlins/heart.gif or some over variation of hearts.

I hope I didn't make a mistake, but I just don't see my opponent going over the top with two pair or even a baby set based on how he played the other posted hand.

Thanks for everyone's comments.

Garland

[/ QUOTE ]

Ya, alot of people play suited connectors for a raise at these (and higher) limits, so a flush isnt out of the question at all. There's also an outside chance of a set or two pair that's heartless trying to protect his hand. Against a passive, conservative opponent, Im probably folding here.