AKs UTG Argument

[CIncyHR]

So I have this hand in my $25NL (.25/.50 blinds) game in the dorm. All you need to know for the set up is I am one of the, if not the, most solid players in the game.

UTG (with about $50) I pick up AKs. I make it $2.50 to go (this is pretty much a standard raise in this game). It gets folded around to the button (with about $40), who is extrememly loose, usually very passive, and illogical. He raises to $6. In the past the hands I have seen him do this play with are almost always TT, JJ, QQ. SB (with $24.50, on only his second hand) is usually a very solid player, though he sometimes plays too many hands preflop. He knows the workings of the game. He looks at his cards, thinks for a while, and pushes all in. I am very conflicted. I am sure he has a big pair, QQ is most likely in my opinion, but JJ and KK are also possible. I dont think it's AA, becuase I think he'd smooth call hoping for me to raise, or to bet out on the flop. I decide that I don't think the button is going to call, so I throw away my hand to wait till I get better odds.

Turns out the button does call.

After the hand, I show my cards to the table. Two other players who I generally respect insist it was a weak, bad play. I think folding here is the right play, and I'll lose money in the long run making the call. What do you think?


Results to come.

[fimbulwinter]

good. i fold KK if the push is ~200bb

if you're better, get the money in when you know you're ahead

let them gamble

fim

[willie24]

Of course your decision here depends entirely on what you know about the players. in my experience, college kids in live games are usually much looser and much more aggressive than online opponents.

but if you know that the SB is a tight player who most likely has something in the range of: AA, KK, AK, QQ, or JJ, this is a good fold, regardless of what the button does.

if, like many young players, he might make this move with just about any medium pocket pair or better, it is a clear call (and of course youre hoping the button calls too.)

its more costly to make a bad call than it is to make a bad fold here, i think you did fine.

[Garland]

Calling a massive re-reraise with AK suited or not is generally a recipe for disaster. You're at best a slight underdog to SB and at worse a big underdog to KK and AA. Fold it unless there are extenuating circumstances. Even if SB doesn't have one of the top two pairs, button for all his looseness may. Even loose players picks up a hand once in a while.

Garland

[CIncyHR]

Turns out the SB had QQ. Button had 66 and called! Button ends up making his set for the win I would have flushed, but at least I made the right play.

[GimmeDaWatch]

The only way you're getting a real good price here is a)if you somehow feel sure both players have underpairs and the button will call or b)if you think SB would move in with a worse Ace a decent amount of the time. As its pretty goddam hard to achieve A and unlikely that B is the case, I too would fold unless I was up against a short stack.

[CIncyHR]

That was exactly my thinking. I knew I was ahead of the button, so I needed him to call to get the odds I was looking for. He gets caught with his pants down a lot, so I figured he would jsut be folding.