To push or not to push, that is the question

[DeeJ]

Villain here is total maniac, betting the pot >50% of the time, pushing his stack and reloading. This is Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo 8 ... Maniac is on the button, I'm late MP, SB is an OK player.

I have A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Maniac only calls on the pre-flop, which goes round 8-ways for $2 apiece.

FLOP - A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif

UTG bets ($2), UTG+1 calls, MP calls, MP+1 calls, Hero raises to $28 (bets pot), CO folds, Maniac raises to $108, SB calls ($106), fold, fold fold

Hero has $69 left. Easy push? Was the pot bet OK? Straight unlikely, Ax /images/graemlins/club.gif would probably call... I knew that Maniac would call/raise, I didn't know about the SB.

I guess with $230 in the pot it's an easy push, but I suppose was the $28 pot bet worth it? anyone? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Spladle Master]

Easy push here. Whenever you've got the nut high and no low is yet possible, you've got to go all-in if you can. Make others pay to outdraw you.

[A_C_Slater]

Why wouldn't you push everything you have with the nuts?

If you even have to make a post about this situation then you're breaking the number one rule of gambling.

1.Never play on scared money.

[DeeJ]

Yes, I did push. It was an easier decision than the earlier pot bet, but I wanted to be clear on both decisions.

The reason is this. After this SB, maniac and Hero just have to see the cards.

TURN - 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
RIVER - 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Board - A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB has 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Maniac has 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I thought Maniac was very lucky to scoop the pot. But running the hands through twodimes shows that in fact he was the Expected Value favourite (50% or so). I was there at 39% and SB down around 10%. Hey, 39% is better than 33% of the pot, but it's not as clear cut as it seemed at the time.

[dogsballs]

I think being more cautious on the flo might have been better (not being results oriented either ); then stick em on the turn if/when a brick lands.

Low draw and flush draw out there, remember. Gotta slow right down with hi only when low gets made, and a lotta bad cards can come.

[beernutz]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I did push. It was an easier decision than the earlier pot bet, but I wanted to be clear on both decisions.

The reason is this. After this SB, maniac and Hero just have to see the cards.

TURN - 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
RIVER - 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Board - A /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB has 9 /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Maniac has 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

I thought Maniac was very lucky to scoop the pot. But running the hands through twodimes shows that in fact he was the Expected Value favourite (50% or so). I was there at 39% and SB down around 10%. Hey, 39% is better than 33% of the pot, but it's not as clear cut as it seemed at the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

In case anyone was curious about the actual EVs:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>http://twodimes.net/h/?z=595576
pokenum -o8 as ad 4h 9c - 3h 8s 2s 4s - 9h kh kd jh -- ah 5c kc
Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing Kc 5c Ah
cards scoop HIwin HIlos HItie LOwin LOlos LOtie EV
As 9c Ad 4h 121 378 279 9 0 106 9 0.381
8s 4s 2s 3h 214 214 443 9 504 0 9 0.546
Kd Kh Jh 9h 32 65 601 0 0 0 0 0.073
</pre><hr />

[DeeJ]

yeah that was it. I didn't have the stat when I was posting the reply and did it from memory which explains the %ge difference. Heads up against maniac it's a coin toss /images/graemlins/frown.gif