JJ Hand from Stars 20k last night

[Double Eagle]

60 Players Left so we are into the money, Avg Stack at 80k or so. Limper in this hand is weakish player, put him on ax with slight possibility of a monster. CO is a slightly loose but otherwise solid player. A little concerned about the possibility of an overpair, but think he could make the same play with TT, 99 or AK-AJ as a weak isolation attempt. I do not think he will fold to a Push. Three options here - Push, Fold or Stop and Go. Interested in thought processes here.....

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t6000 (9 handed)

saw flop|<font color="C00000">saw showdown</font>

<font color="C00000">Hero (t45462)</font>
BB (t47632)
UTG (t21447)
UTG+1 (t120717)
MP1 (t99942)
MP2 (t77418)
<font color="C00000">MP3 (t15426)</font>
<font color="C00000">CO (t74782)</font>
Button (t57269)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
<font color="666666">4 folds</font>, MP3 calls t6000, <font color="CC3333">CO raises to t18000</font>, <font color="666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="CC3333">action on SB

[M.B.E.]

Don't fold here. Given your assessment of the hands the button might have, I'd call preflop, then push in on any flop other than Axy and KQx. With those you'd checkfold. (Also if you flop a set you can checkraise.)

Pushing preflop is also a reasonable alternative. For one thing, by pushing preflop you get your opponent's chips in the pot those times he has TT or 99 and is a big underdog (rather than letting him fold on the flop).

[Lloyd]

I'm going to call with this. Good chance that if you re-raise all-in you're only going to be called by a big pair. If the flop is Axx or Kxx I would check-fold, if it's Qxx I might take a stab at it, anything else and I'm pushing.

[Double Eagle]

Well, I didn't have much timeclock left, so I quickly decided to push. Here's how it went down....

Preflop: Hero is SB with Jh, Jd.
4 folds, MP3 calls t6000, CO raises to t18000, 1 fold, Hero raises to t45162, 1 fold, MP3 calls t9126 (All-In), CO calls t27162.

Flop: (t107550) Th, 7s, 8c (3 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t107550) Td (3 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t107550) As (3 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t107550
Main Pot: t48078 (t48078), between Hero, MP3 and CO. &gt; Pot won by MP3 (t48078).
Pot 2: t59472 (t59472), between Hero and CO. &gt; Pot won by CO (t59472).

Results below:
Hero has Jh Jd (two pair, jacks and tens).
MP3 has 9s Ac (two pair, aces and tens).
CO has Qd Qh (two pair, queens and tens).
Outcome: CO wins t59472. MP3 wins t48078.



Looking at this action I'm not sure anyone played the hand very well. MP3 made a pretty poor play but managed to triple up. CO's small raise invited another opponent into the pot with a hand that really wants to be HU. As for my push, well my first instinct was that the raise was so small as to invite a re-raise or at least a call - I would definitely play KK or AA exactly the same way as he played QQ here - If I had thought about it for a bit longer I would have put a much higher probablity on the overpair being there and would probably break it down like this:

AA/KK/QQ - 40% - With the exception of QQ fits the bet best

AK/AQ - 30% - I know these are more likely statistically but I see him pushing here with those hands...

AJ - 10% - Would be really loose, but fits the weak isolation attempt theory

TT and below - 20% - again i would expect a push here to ensure isolation against the limper

Some EV calcs with these assumptions using Twodimes.net -

40% of the time I have 20% equity = 3439 chip ev

30% of the time I have 57% equity = 18379 chip ev

10% of the time I have 73% equity = 7846 chip ev

20% of the time I have 57% = 12252 chip ev

Total Chip EV = 41917

So a push here was exactly EV neutral considering I had 42k to start the hand after posting the SB. If I flip the percentages for ak and the overpairs then it becomes EV +10%. I knew this was a close decision at the time, but that's REALLY close.

I wonder if I'll ever get to the point where I can synthisize all of these variables in the heat of battle....

[Vince Lepore]

[ QUOTE ]
but think he could make the same play with TT, 99 or AK-AJ

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that given the above statement you should fold the Jacks. It is most likely that you are a big dog or a slight favorite with a small possibility of being a big favorite. That is against the raiser. The MP limper might have a big hand also. J,J is a very vulnerable hand. That said, with no limper I would push. I might even push if I thought this raiser would raise with a wider range of hands you describe here. And who knows if I were in the hand I might push anyway.
Vince