I think I was correct with this play need some feedback

[yimmy9]

This happened last night in Pokerroom 15k guarantee. We are down to 45, blinds are 1000/2000 and I am in the top five with 41,000. I am on the button with JJ I have two limpers in front of me UTG, and mid position. I raise to 9000 and the UTG+1 goes all-in after SB, and BB fold. I barely have him covered. I had a table image of a TAG, I ended up laying down the hand pre-flop. I thought at best I was going to be in a race. In back to back nights I have finished 26th and 25th any advice of how to break the hump and finish higher.

[MyssGuy]

I think this is a good lay down. This smells of AA or KK trying to be sneaky. I may have made a more modest raise of 5k to 7k, with 7k already in the pot. You want to get out the limpers or find out if they have a hand. JJ is hard to play, because you will see over cards too often for your comfort.

My feeling is that near the end of these tourneys, you need to be more aggressive. Open up and attack the tighter and medium stacked players. They'll let you know when your beat. Good luck.

[nightlyraver]

Yeah, this really does stink of AA or KK and you really don't NEED the chips. If your raise would have knocked you down to 20K or less, then it's an intant call. However, I don't know who this player is. I have seen other players make this play with AA-55, and even AK-ATs. If he just puts you on ANY pocket pair, then he could do this with the AK-ATs. If he puts you on AK or AQ, then he could do this w/ ANY pocket pair. In either case, it is almost always a coin flip, in some cases you dominate and in some he dominates. So, if he's a LAG, then it's basically even money and if he's a TAG, you're usually beaten since the range is now AK,AA,KK,QQ,JJ and maybe TT - you only dominate once, split once and are 55/45 once. That said, without a good read I would lay this down as well since you have sufficient chips to find a better spot. Against most players, I generally am weary about an EP limp and then an all-in re-raise.

[TheDrone]

What was UTG+1's image? Your decision is somewhat player dependent. I don't like the way you played it. I would call much more often than not because the EP limp-push is more typical of a medium pair (and AA) than something that puts you in coin flip range, like AK. So you are enough of a favorite over the range of possible hands to call.

That said, I would have just pushed to begin with. If you are against AA then so be it, but most people do not limp-push with KK and certainly not QQ. Adding in the folding equity you should have makes this the best option with JJ. This play would be even better if you were in the SB or BB because only the limpers would be left to act.

[DONTUSETHIS]

If you fear the limp reraise all in play, why not limp behind him and see what the flop brings. You have postion on him and maybe you can out play him on the flop. What does everyone think.

[Iconoclastic]

I would have limped also. You want implied odds...

[TheDrone]

JJ is too good at this stage of the tourney to be playing for set value, because that's basically all you can play it for in a multiway unraised pot. Limping is not the worst play, but it's second worst.

[yimmy9]

As for raising I think it was necessary. If he in fact did have AA or KK and nothing but unders came out then I more than likely loose my entire stack. I had to see where I stood in the hand if I would have known that I would have gone out 26th without a pay increase then I would of course beaten him in the pot with the more than likely race. I honestly don't have to much respect for too many players on that site, I have seen many stupid mistakes late in tournaments, so I really don't think he had AA or KK only overs more than likely ak-aq. I just couldn't risk my stack in this situation when I think that I was one of the better players left in the tournament.

[TheDrone]

[ QUOTE ]
I really don't think he had AA or KK only overs more than likely ak-aq.

[/ QUOTE ]

EP limpers rarely have AK-AQ in the mid to late stages of a tournament, even in one with many bad players.

[ QUOTE ]
I just couldn't risk my stack in this situation when I think that I was one of the better players left in the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sounds like you are waiting for a big edge, but they don't come that often, if at all, late in a tournament. By the way I still think you are better than a coin flip because of the range of hands you dominate.

Don't get me wrong, JJ is not easy to play. If not this situation though, then what situation are you willing to risk your stack?

[yimmy9]

I knew two things were going to happen a) I was going out or b) I was going to double(of course). Even with the fold I still had 15BB left and a new orbit starting so I still had some time left to pick up a playable hand. I have a tendncy not to change gears late in a tournament when I have great position and image. I am almost sure this cost me a few spots and some money. I am fairly new to MTT I am sure I have played less than 100. I do fairly well just want to make my cashes a little more profitable.

[SossMan]

I assume MP folded to the limp-RR.

You are getting 1.6:1 on your call.

If you put him on AA/KK, AK here are his distributions.

AA - 6
KK - 6
AK - 16

So, the chipEV calculation would go like this:

16/28 of the time (57%) you are a 55% favorite to double up:
.57 * .55 * (+52,000) = 16,300
.57 * .45 * (-32,000) = 8,200
So, the +EV vs. AK = t8100

Vs. AA or KK we are a 4:1 dog.
We will be up against AA/KK 43% of the time.
.43 * .2 * (+52,000) = 4,470
.43 * .8 * (-32,000) = 11,000
-EV vs. AA/KK = t6,530.

So, even against this very, very narrow range of hands, it is a marginally +EV call.
If you throw in AQ/QQ or even some random underpairs, it's not even close.

There may be better ways to play it, but I think a call is in order here unless I have a read to the contrary. You have to remember that people do all sorts of wacky things on the spur of a moment (like limp reraising all in vs. a button TAG w/ 66-TT)


edit to say that I forgot the blinds....those 52,000s should be 55,000 which only strengthens the case to call

[MLG]

what's the ev if you add QQ into that analysis but not AQ?

You have to have a very good grasp of the feel of your table to get these situations right. If you have been over aggresive then you have to call, if the open limp is suspicious from this player you can maybe fold, if the other player is aggresive then you have to call.

Its very easy to say that you have a TAG image, but its much harder for that actually to be the case.

[SossMan]

Like I don't have work to do? Ok, clients will have to wait...


If you put him on AA-QQ, AK here are his distributions.

AA - 6
KK - 6
QQ - 6
AK - 16



16/34 of the time (47%) you are a 55% favorite to double up:
.47 * .55 * (+55,000) = 14,220
.47 * .45 * (-32,000) = -6,770
So, the +EV vs. AK = 14,220 - 6,770 = 7,450.

Vs. AA-QQ we are a 4:1 dog.
We will be up against AA-QQ 53% of the time.
.53 * .2 * (+55,000) = 5,830
.53 * .8 * (-32,000) = -13,568
-EV vs. AA-QQ = -7,738.

So, it is slightly -EV w/ AA-QQ, AK.

It looks like it's pretty read dependent. I have a feeling that there are a small proportion of internet players that would have that narrow a range of hands. If you averaged out all the players out there, I bet a more realistic range of hands is AA-99, AK/AQ, AJs, maybe a few more random bluffing hands, I'm tired and want to go to bed, I saw this on the WPT once, etc...

I think one of the biggest mistakes intermediate players make is narrowing the holdings of an unknown opponent and making bad laydowns.

Like I said originally, I would need a read to the contrary to lay down JJ here. But I don't play online, so I may be way off base...I defer to tosh, mlg, fnurt, che, JS, etc...

[Che]

[ QUOTE ]
In back to back nights I have finished 26th and 25th any advice of how to break the hump and finish higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

Quick answer: Stop putting in a big chunk of your stack and then folding PF when you have the 4th best starting hand. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif You'll bust out earlier sometimes, but your chances of taking the whole tourney will improve.

Seriously, there are times that folding JJ is good and this may have been one. However, if folding JJ to a limp-reraise from this opponent was the plan then you should not have raised in the first place. Just limp in and play for set value with the added bonus of having position when UTG shows weakness after the flop.

OTOH if you are not going to fold to a limp-reraise then raising is correct.

Later,
Che

[Che]

Upon further review, I oversimplified things.

There are opponents against whom raise/fold is OK. For example, if the opponent will limp with a wide range of hands but only reraise with AA-QQ/AK while folding drawing hands and calling with hands in between then raise/fold is good.

The possible scenarios are endless, but the factors to consider are:

1. What range does UTG hold?
2. How will he react to a raise with: a. hands that beat JJ, b. hands that are a coinflip against JJ, c. hands that JJ dominates?
3. Am I better off assuming JJ is best until he convinces me its not (i.e. raise) or am I better off assuming JJ is probably not best (i.e. limp and pray for the set)?

Stack sizes and payout structure also figure in. Table image does, too. Like I said, lots of scenarios...

Later,
Che

[MLG]

I will lay this down sometimes, its read dependent. I will pretty much never limp behind and play for set value here. If I even have to consider whether or not its right to call, then I will call. There are scenarios, however, where it is abundently clear that the limp reraise is a monster.

[Harv72b]

Okay, I'm a newbie both at this site and to poker in general, but I'm confused about why exactly people are putting UTG on AA or KK? I think it's far more likely that you were facing AJ, AT, or pockets lower than yours in this situation...maybe I'm wrong & maybe I'm underestimating your opponent, but the hand just doesn't make sense to me otherwise.

UTG limped in, which without a read on his play really doesn't say much. However, when you raised t9,000, you gave him a great read on your hand, and he's now put you on either AK or pockets. Or the chance that you're just trying to steal the blinds + his bet, but either way...

If he's holding AA, KK, or any other truly premium hand, what would he possibly gain by reraising to all in before the flop, in that scenario? If you're on AK he's a big favorite, if you're on pockets he's a big favorite...it's just highly unlikely that you would hit a hand that would beat him on the flop, and even if you did, he should be able to read that & dump the hand there for (relative) cheap. On the other hand, if he just calls your raise he gets a chance to study the flop, look for any danger cards, and then either bet big into you, or else check & let you dig your own grave.

The only reason he would want to reraise to all in there is to take advantage of your tight nature and cash in with a beatable hand. And if he's holding something like AJ or 66, at least he feels he has a fair chance of winning the hand even if you do call.

It looks to me more like he's betting that you don't have aces, and will fold to his all in.

[SossMan]

Hi Harv,

The play that UTG made is called a limp reraise (exactly what the name implies...limp from EP, reraise a late position raiser). It is an effective play from EP on an aggressive table where you can expect a fair number of hands to be raised preflop. When a player does the LRR from EP, that usually narrows his range of hands quite a bit. It would be a very aggressive player to LRR w/ AJ or 66. Personally, I feel like the range is wider than AA/KK, but there are some people to whom this range applies.
I agree with your conclusion, but not your premise. I put an unknown player on AA-TT, AK-AQ, and some random bluffing hands.

[zaxx19]

hmm not 10-10 and not j-j and probably not q-q
as a limpraiser myself its probably KK AA or AK so ev is negative if im right... why raise so much preflop?? yur just about pot stuck here so back of the raise a bit, yu got postion and a really good hand.........just not quite good enough to go broke with while your running well in a tourney....

[zaxx19]

MMM yeah harv you are new.....

Um there is almost no possibility of a player limp raising with AJ here imho..yu wanna play marginally premium hands like AJ aggressively....Its much easier to risk an unraised flop with KK or AA bc yur still gonna have a huge hand no matter what flops( well jjx, qqx, kkx,1010x ...scary but hey this is gambling) so basically what im saying is limp raisers generally have huge hands or AK and some gamble to them( i limp reraise all in alot with AK in ring games with aggressive players behind me...i find it's neutral EV but slows them down alot after 2x)

WOW I AM SMART: bc there is usually a simple way to tell whether someone has AA or KK they raise alot more......plus yu got AK so the chances are lower AND if yu do show it down in a live game win or lose yu can limp raise all in later with QQ KK AA and perhaps get some action im glad im so darn smart.... /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[SossMan]

I just remembered why I initially put you on ignore...back you go.

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
MMM yeah harv you are new.....

Um there is almost no possibility of a player limp raising with AJ here imho..yu wanna play marginally premium hands like AJ aggressively....Its much easier to risk an unraised flop with KK or AA bc yur still gonna have a huge hand no matter what flops( well jjx, qqx, kkx,1010x ...scary but hey this is gambling) so basically what im saying is limp raisers generally have huge hands or AK and some gamble to them( i limp reraise all in alot with AK in ring games with aggressive players behind me...i find it's neutral EV but slows them down alot after 2x)


[/ QUOTE ]

I understand the premise behind limp/raising, but not the premise behind doing it in this situation, at least not with AA, KK, or AK.

I've always understood that the key to doing well in poker is to avoid situations where you're likely to lose, and maximize your take in situations where you're likely to win. In a heads up situation with AA, KK, or AK in your hand, you are very likely to win, yes? So why re-raise with that hand preflop, when UTG has already got his heads up situation, and a pot big enough that the Hero is likely to stick around through smaller bets after the flop?

Look at the hand possibilities people are discussing:
AA - What's he worried about now that he wasn't when he limped in ahead of the whole table? Heads up & knowing that his opponent has a premium hand, the only likely way he loses the pot is if the Hero catches a set. That's just as likely to happen with a T10,000 pot as with a T20,000.
KK - The only thing he really has to worry about is if the Hero has AA, in which case the Hero will certainly call the all in anyway.
AK - More vulnerable in that any pocket pair is currently ahead, but still a monster hand in a heads up situation. Again, against any hand that's likely to beat him, the Hero will almost certainly call the all in anyway.

So why go all-in with a monster hand like that and risk the other player folding, when instead you can smooth call & milk some more chips out of him? Maximizing the profit.

The only reason I can see why UTG would reraise to all in is if he's got a very vulnerable hand and does not want to go to a flop. Yes, there's a little worry about reverse psychology & people doing exactly what you described, but as you said, this is gambling.

Again, I'm relatively new to this game & maybe this will make a lot more sense to me as I gain experience, but right now I can't understand why anyone would want to risk missing out on a heads up showdown while holding AA or KK. Maybe AK, but if he's holding AK, then Hero's JJ is the favorite anyway.

[SossMan]

So why go all-in with a monster hand like that and risk the other player folding, when instead you can smooth call & milk some more chips out of him? Maximizing the profit.

The only reason I can see why UTG would reraise to all in is if he's got a very vulnerable hand and does not want to go to a flop.

and you guys question why I put people on wide ranges of hands??
Harv, I don't even know where to start...

[zaxx19]

Im not gonna rehash the myriad reasons why going heads up in a medium pot with AK is not a really optimum situation...
your probably gonna have to make a sizeable bluff in postion, You are not a fav, your hand is easily read, a person without an A or K isnt gonna pay yu off....

Why i limp-raise with AA and KK easy bc i find it's easier to get all my chips in and get a call this way WITH extra chips to boot isnt this exactly what i want with AA and KK correct me if im wrong....

[zaxx19]

YA i always wanna move in early-mid tourney with a vulnerable hand... WOW im just not getting your post HARV sounds like yu like to splash around WAY too much... and like most ultra-loose players believe other players do the same........ /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Harv72b]

[ QUOTE ]
YA i always wanna move in early-mid tourney with a vulnerable hand... WOW im just not getting your post HARV sounds like yu like to splash around WAY too much... and like most ultra-loose players believe other players do the same........ /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I think I'm explaining myself poorly, because if anything I'm too tight a tournament player. But yeah, the incredibly loose play & all ins that I've witnessed are no doubt clouding my vision somewhat.

If you limp, get 2 callers, and then someone raises to say 4xBB, then I can definitely see going all in with AA-KK, in order to either capture the bets so far before the flop, or to isolate against the raiser in a heads up situation.

What I'm saying is that in this situation, you already have a lot of chips in play, you're already isolated against a guy who obviously likes his hand, and if you're on AA-KK, you're almost certainly well ahead before the flop. It just makes more sense to me to keep the other guy in the hand at this point, to try and work him all in at some other point. Because most good players are going to fold to that re-raise preflop, unless they're the ones holding AA or KK, in which case you're probably screwed either way.

Maybe that's too passive a play for some people, but in this particular situation, I don't understand what more a guy with AA or KK could hope for before the flop. Assuming hero was holding pockets (as he was), what does the villian have to lose by going to the flop if he's holding an overpair? Barring a miracle flush or straight that goes against him, the hero only has 2 outs to beat him, and even if he catches one of those, villian would still have 2 outs to win regardless. So why risk pushing the hero out of the hand before the flop in this case?

[Jason Strasser]

[ QUOTE ]
Quick answer: Stop putting in a big chunk of your stack and then folding PF when you have the 4th best starting hand. You'll bust out earlier sometimes, but your chances of taking the whole tourney will improve.

[/ QUOTE ]

Che,

I disagree. I know you wrote a followup post to that, where you stepped back a bit, but I really think that this fold is almost routine given the stack sizes and such. I would definitely like to limp, and if a short stack in MP who limped then pushed, I would call. But the fact that UTG, who has a big stack and who could easily be limping UTG with a big hand, limp-reraised, I think you should fold.

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously, there are times that folding JJ is good and this may have been one. However, if folding JJ to a limp-reraise from this opponent was the plan then you should not have raised in the first place. Just limp in and play for set value with the added bonus of having position when UTG shows weakness after the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bleh. I dont like this logic either, because most of the time an UTG limp does not mean a monster hand and JJ has enough value to raise here. That doesn't mean that its incorrect to fold when you get limp reraised. Your type of thinking is a bit results oriented, in this case.

If this player UTG was a complete LAG, who could potentially be bluffing here with a limp RR, then I agree that you should've limped in. But given that this player was normal, I disagree with your thinking.

-Jason

[Che]

Jason-

[ QUOTE ]
Bleh. I dont like this logic either.... Your type of thinking is a bit results oriented, in this case.


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think your criticism is accurate relative to what I was thinking about this hand, but I understand it given the way I wrote my analysis. /images/graemlins/confused.gif

I've thought about this hand quite a bit and still can't come up with a way to succinctly cover all the variables so I've given up. /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Thanks for taking the time to reply to such a poor post...

Che

[Jason Strasser]

It's okay. You could always bump one of my posts from a year or two ago and all have a good laugh /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

-Jason