And so it continues...

Well thanks to all who posted on my thread below.

I did raise on 3rd street and ( of-course) everybody called.


This hand developed into a hell of a multi-way hand. I wont get in to all of the details but I will just mention some specifics and then ask another 'What would you do?'


4th street I caught an A and everyone else caught nothing spectacular. I was high on board and bet $5. Everyone called.


5th street I caught another diamond giving me my Aces with 4 diamonds. I bet $5 and everyone calls again.


6th street is where it gets interesting. I caught another A. Giving me three aces with my four flush. I am still high on board and bet another $5. EVERYONE still calls to the person on my immediate right who raises to $10 with what is now an obvious straight.


Here's the question. With no one dropping now and with a coming 'community card' Who would reraise to $15 here? knowing that we are currently beat. ALL OF MY CARDS ARE STILL LIVE ( less 2 diamonds )


Later,


CJ

If eight players each have six cards each, then there are 4 cards left in the deck. 14 cards are your opponents hole cards so there are 16 cards unaccounted for


Of these sixteen cards:


1 is an Ace

3 are Kings

3 are Queens

7 are diamonds

2 are bricks


So, on the river, you have:


43.75% chance to make Aces full or Quad Aces

43.75% chance to make an AKQ flush

12.5% chance to stay at trip Aces


It's an easy raise.

If eight players each have six cards each, then there are 4 cards left in the deck. 14 cards are your opponents hole cards so there are 16 cards unaccounted for.


Hmmm...I can calculate pot odds and other poker statistics accurately but I can't add 14 + 4 correctly.


There are 18 cards unaccounted for.


So, on the river, you have:


38.89% chance to make Aces full or Quad Aces

38.89% chance to make an AKQ flush

22.22% chance to stay at trip Aces


My reccomendation is the same. Raise!

This must have been one hell of a game! I would reraise again and it is not close.


Pat

I like your spot, but before I re-raise here, I'd look at what the other players are likely to have. Do they have holdings (like the lower end of high straights) that would combine well with q-k? If so some of your cards may be in their down cards. Likely at least someone has a big buried pair (ks or qs). Also likely that since your hand is so concentrated, others may have a concentration as well and be drawing to lower full houses (or even have one made and be playing it passively). If that's the case, your flush draw may not be good. Your case ace or aces full will almost surely be the nuts. You are a favorite here, but with everybody drawing I believe it's reasonably likely you're against enough potential full houses (and maybe even a quads draw) to consider just calling. To me the key is not that you have to outdraw the straight -- you are a big favorite to do that. I'd reraise here because the value is there AND you just might knock out a low two pairs for two more bets and thereby buy a little extra insurance if you make a flush....

Well thanks again to all that replied. ( Including DocAz in his post above )


I DID re-raise on 6th and everyone called ( raiser just called )


The community card was an absolute brick for everyone as far as I could tell.


I checked and it was checked around. I turned over my trip Aces and they were good. Person who raised with 'obvious straight' didn't show his hand I wasn't askin either.


Hope everyone has a good New Year,


Later,


CJ

You note that there are really 18 unknown cards. But you also forget that there is a another card that can be paired (the diamond of unstated size). If that too is live there are 17 cards to make a flush or full house. While I'm skeptical that that the hand was really as live as CJ says, if true he had a 94% chance to improve, so he has to raise.