KQs on the button

[zephed56]

CO vpip 50%.
UTG vpip 28%
SB vpip 23%
MP1 vpip >50%

Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO calls, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, MP1 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (11 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, <font color="CC3333">CO bets</font>, Hero ?

Raise cuz I have 15 outs, or call to keep opponents in?

[davelin]

Raise

[trumpman84]

I call to keep opponents in. People are much more likely to call 1 bet than 2 cold and if you hit your straight or flush, you want as many people in as possible. If the original bet came from SB or UTG and just calls to you, then you raise b/c you can trap the entire field for 2 bets.

[umdpoker]

thats tough. i think its kinda close based on the fact that the people in front clearly play tight. they may be willing to call 1 bet, but very rarely 2. i would call in this exact situation. if it was reversed, with the loosey's in front, then i raise for a ton of reasons, including value. the interesting thing here is that you have 15 outs that are almost certainly clean, plus overcards. hmm... so lets see if the pot is already big. that will help my decision. 11sb= raise. you might as well increase the odds of those overcard outs being good. the only way to do that is to raise this flop.

[timer78]

I would call.

Raise can only potentially add 6 outs (3Q, 3K). No need to drive out opponents IMO. Let them draw. A 7s or 9 will bring in some actions.

[fairness]

you actually have 21 out to top pair or better... twice. this is a monster. raise and reraise for value.

[zephed56]

Crap! I wasn't even thinking about overcards. I guess that could have swayed my decision.

How much do you have to discount the overcard outs?
I would think quite a bit because if I hit one of them, it could complete a straight here...

[fairness]

you could put them at 1.5 for each making your hand a total of 18 outs but i dont really think it matters. if you do catch a king or a queen and it makes someone a straight you still have the 15 outs for a redraw and you'd be correct to raise it up again.

[Shillx]

I really dont think this is even close. Raise. The pot is starting to get big and that flop probably helped the limpers. I am not convinced that a raise will thin the field so I do it and hope for the best.

[ChessMan]

I think its close. I think I'd raise, but calling is good too.

If Hero calls, probably everyone calls, for 3 bets total.

If Hero raises, maybe 1 or two people cold call, raiser calls for 4 bets total (averaging 1 or two callers here). Maybe even raiser reraises.

Raising looks a little better, but if you just call you have better chance of reraising the turn. If you raise the flop, you'll probably get checked to on the turn. It's a close decision to make in 20 seconds during online play.

[TBone]

I had slipped into a habit of just coldcalling in this scenario to keep people in--until finally, a stroke of genius struck me. It doesn't matter how much the bet is, people at these limits love to call!

Raise.

T

[ChessMan]

Yes ultimately it comes down to that. They just love to call. I love that line in SSH in the hand quizes section where you've flopped quads, and the answer is to bet not slowplay:
"Bet. Checking is absurd...They do not know you flopped quads. They do not know they are drawing dead. Even if they did know, half of them would probably call anyway." /images/graemlins/grin.gif When I read that I burst out laughing.

[HajiShirazu]

This is a fairly large pot. Raise and hope to clean up your kings and queens. If they fold, good. If they call, good.

[zephed56]

yeah, I should stop being so gentle on them, they will call down anyways. Gotta love it. After I clicked "call" I had a pretty good feeling I made the wrong decision.
Repeat ten times with me:
"If you raise it, they will call"

[TheHip41]

I'd raise. Pots big already, give yourself a better chance of winning by knocking some retards out.

You have 21 outs, not 15, on the turn


9 to a flush, 6 more non spades to a straight, 3 K, 3 Q


Also, i raise, because they will call anyway

[afk]

I think this is a standard raise.

[fairness]

i think this thread is finished