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rookieplus
11-04-2004, 10:54 PM
Played WPF event today and went out on this hand. Did I mess up or just a bad beat?

I have slightly lower than average amount of chips but level is such that any one hand can bust you out if betting gets aggressive. On my left is a semi-maniac who has chased some hands and who has tried to steal a fair amopunt of pots. He was "somebody" in the poker world but I don't know who he was. I suspect he's a great NLHE player playing stud because that was the event of the day. Anyway, here's the hand:

2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif brings it in, 5 players fold to me

I have A /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif down and 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif showing. All my cards are live.

Maniac is showing a J and one J folded in front of me.

I tried to steal with a raise figuring if I get called I have overcards for fourth street anyway. Maniac raises, I call, bring in folds.

Fourth street I have A /images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Maniac has X X J 8. I bet he calls and now I'm pretty sure he has a J underneath. He could have a straight draw but I have two Q's and one 7 so I'm not too concerned about that.

Fifth street I pair my 7, he gets a blank. I bet, he raises and I think the best he has is JJ88. At this point I'm sure I'm ahead but I am also looking at a quickly dwindling stack. Either I'm doubling up or this is going to be bad, so I raise and he raises back.

Sixth we both get blanks except that my balnk is a T so I really doubt a striaght now.

River pairs my T. Fewer straight cards for maniac. I end up all in.

Did I screw up by pressing too small an small edge or did I play this one right.

Results in white below.

<font color="white"> Maniac had J 8 underneath for JJ88. He rivered the case J and I went home. <font color="white"> </font>

Hotdog
11-05-2004, 06:05 PM
Seems to me that on the river he had three outs... right? Which would have made you about a 94% favorite at that point. Nothing wrong with that edge.