A hand from a pupil....part 4 River and Results

[SossMan]

Read parts 1, duex, trey to make any sense of the following:


So we call his underbet. That should slow him down, right?

River is the 2 of purple horseshoes.

He checks, we check behind.

We were freerolling on the turn.

[MLG]

sweet. poker rocks, even when you tie.

[Hotrod0823]

This may be way off base but is a bet on the river warrented? He raised PF, under bet the flop, under bet the turn and checked the river.

Do you still think he would wait for the river to trap with AQ, AA, QQ?

Would a sizeable bet on the river scoop the pot without a show down?

Just a thought

[nolanfan34]

[ QUOTE ]
Would a sizeable bet on the river scoop the pot without a show down?

[/ QUOTE ]

The problem is, IF he decided to slowplay a monster for some reason, what are you going to do if you make a bet and get raised all-in? I like just taking the free showdown, the way the hand went down.

If you're so sure that you're tied or ahead on the river then I'd say just push, but I doubt you could be that certain.

[PuckNPoker]

Yeah, I was wondering the same thing. Was there a way to play this to push AK off, and also limit your risk to KK,QQ,JJ,AQ.

If you reraise the flop, AK might check the turn. With AQ-QQ probably betting stronger than underbet because of the flush draw. Setting up an opportunity to stealing this on the river from AK. AQ-QQ wouldnt check both the turn and river. An AK facing a reraise just might. Just a thought.

[Hotrod0823]

You think a slowplayed hand is going to showdown for free? I think after the underbet/call, underbet/call slowplay would fire a bet on the river.

If I remember correctly there is now 13,000 in the pot leaving you with about 8,000 behind. Perhaps the only scoop is a with a push and not worth the risk.

[sdplayerb]

i think it is pretty well defined he has AK..i think you can pushin here, he'll probably call. I don't see him not betting a hand that beats you now.

[Chaostracize]

It's interesting to me that no one is seeing this from the villain's perspective.

A TAG villain raises in EP, gets called by LAG in late position.

TAG flops TPTK and bets. The LAG calls. We put the lag on anything from AT to AK, I suppose. But wouldn't a LAG raise this on the flop with TPGK? Maybe not an ace, maybe a set.

Q comes on the turn. TAG still has TPTK and bets. Get cold-called again. Warning bells are going off. I figure I'm either splitting or losing to a set here. If a LAG has cold-called twice and not come over the top of me in 3 betting rounds, I'm terrified. Especially after I have shown a good amount of strength.

River, offsuit deuce. I can't bet, I won't get called by a worse hand. If LAG goes all-in I'm folding, the best I can hope for is a split.




Is this really off for the EP TAG's thought process? It seems like we're forgetting what our hero's betting pattern looks like if he pushes the river. The TAG would not check down a set on the river.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
We were freerolling on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Omaha has taught me the beauty of that phrase. Excellent.

On the river there's 13K in the pot and we have 7.5K when checked to...are you confident enough that villain has AK/KK/JJ here to push? Hero's flat-calling the flop/turn can't have made villain too happy, and if villain folds AK the additional chips are 50% of hero's stack. I'd be amazed if villain would fold a winner here, but what do you figure the chances of him folding AK would be?

I think it's not too likely villain would check a set on the river, unless he was confident hero would bet. (Given our hero's LAGgy status, that might be the case.) I could also see him going for the check-call with AQ, which might be enough to dissuade me from betting at the end.

[Ian J]

Is there a chance that if you stack off the river, this opponent folds AK? I can't see him checking there with a hand that beats AK, so stacking off can't be that bad can it?

[MLG]

I think there is a bigger chance that he checks with AQ than that he folds AK if he gets stacked off. The problem with moving in is that your opponent needs to hold exactly AK, and be willing to fold it for you to have any positive expectation. In my opinion the chances of that are smaller than the chance that he's attempting to get a little more money out of a hand he's sure of beating by enducing a bluff on the end.

[SossMan]

Remember that we have a LAG image. A river checkraise here w/ AQ or QQ wouldn't be horrible if UTG thought that we would fire with any ace if checked to on the end. That's what I was afraid of. I thought that the pot looked nice as is, and I didn't want to fall into the trap for such a small reward (1/2 the pot some of the time)

[Chaostracize]

Since UTG is up against a LAG, is there anyway that UTG would check the turn if his hand improved to TTP or second set? Betting out on the turn doesn't scream "I improved!" to me when that queen comes out. Would check-raising or check-calling this on the turn against LAG lose or gain money in the long run as compared to betting out?

Part of playing a LAG out of position with a very strong hand is letting him have a street to bluff on, preferably the flop or turn as the river lets the LAG check through to showdown. Like always this is my opinion and please shoot it down if it's wrong.

I'm literally just throwing this out there to see what you think.

[SossMan]

I only said that he was tight...I didn't say he was good. He may or may not have been good, but I would have checkraised the turn w/ AA/AQ/QQ.