A hand from a pupil part duex

[SossMan]

Read part 1 for pertinant info.....


So, I tell him that we should flat call and see a flop. That ought to scare the bajeezus out of UTG if he doesn't have AA/KK.
Given his range of hands AK/AQ/AA-JJ, I did some air math and came up with the following probabilities:
AK - 9 - 23%
AQ - 12 - 31%
AA - 3 - 8%
KK - 3 - 8%
QQ - 6 - 16%
JJ - 6 - 16%

okay, i know they don't add up, but work with me.
In my head, I guessed that it was about 50/20/30 that he had AK/AQ, AA/KK, QQ/JJ respectively. I was fairly close.

So, the flop came A /images/graemlins/club.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Villian bets out t2000.

What to do, what to do....

[La Brujita]

Here I think you gotta push, if you weren't going to raise with an A on the flop I think you should fold preflop.

To me it is a question of playing in a congruous manner, if that makes sense. A potter would be the normal play but I think eyeballing it it commits too large a portion of your stack.

[SossMan]

We are certainly playing this to the felt, right?

What card besides a Queen scares you on the turn?

Way ahead/Way behind??

[MLG]

I agree completely, I call here. As I said in part 1 im slow-playing the hell out of this now, and im probably checking behind if he checks the turn.

[PuckNPoker]

Most would slowplay trip Aces, so I think you can take that off the table. And at worst you are tied. I would try to win the pot right here, with a chance of taking his whole stack, by making a pot size raised, and if he comes over the top calling.

[PuckNPoker]

[ QUOTE ]
Most would slowplay trip Aces, so I think you can take that off the table. And at worst you are tied. I would try to win the pot right here, with a chance of taking his whole stack, by making a pot size raised, and if he comes over the top calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Im new so I was thinking about MLG response. And it makes a lot of sense for maximizing hand value as against all the possible hands except AA (way behind) and AK (tied) you are betting into a 2-3 outer or runner runner situation. But it then becomes a question of if a person would really put more money in the pot with an overcard and a call on the flop if they have a pocket pairs. You are basically hoping for AQ in this situation and arent gaining anymore money from the KK-QQ-JJ and giving them a chance to beat you. Or is that too weak thinking?

[MLG]

What hand can he possibly have that will call your reraise. How does raising lead you to take his whole stack more than calling.

[MLG]

I think if you call the flop and check behind on the turn, then there is a chance he will either try to take the pot on the river with a bluff/blocking bet. If he checks the river and has KK, he might call a smallish value bet. Who knows, but you have a better chance than by raising the flop.

[PuckNPoker]

Like I said, you are trying to win it here. But if you push he would be more likely to fold than if he thinks he might be able to push back. I am basically saying you are giving him the opportunity to make a mistake in case he thinks he can push you off a hand. People with AQ might make this mistake.

[PuckNPoker]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if you call the flop and check behind on the turn, then there is a chance he will either try to take the pot on the river with a bluff/blocking bet. If he checks the river and has KK, he might call a smallish value bet. Who knows, but you have a better chance than by raising the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see. What would you do if a K-Q-J falls and he bets pot on either the turn or river?

[MLG]

I dont know, deal with the situation as it arises, but it would require incredible balls, for him to pot it with say JJ if a Q turns. By the way, with a K or J, im not folding. The Q is the one that really worries me.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I dont know, deal with the situation as it arises, but it would require incredible balls, for him to pot it with say JJ if a Q turns. By the way, with a K or J, im not folding. The Q is the one that really worries me.

[/ QUOTE ]

You'll like part 3 then....*cue suspenseful music*

[La Brujita]

The reason I don't like a flat call on the flop is that AQ, AJ, QQ and JJ all have backdoor straights. Perhaps it is a matter of risk tolerance but I don't want them drawing for free.

Any hand like AsQs AsJs would not mind a next card coming cheaply.

[PuckNPoker]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, with a K or J, im not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain the reasoning here?

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
The reason I don't like a flat call on the flop is that AQ, AJ, QQ and JJ all have backdoor straights. Perhaps it is a matter of risk tolerance but I don't want them drawing for free.

Any hand like AsQs AsJs would not mind a next card coming cheaply.

[/ QUOTE ]

We have A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK /images/graemlins/spade.gif...I'm willing to allow a backdoor straight to get halfway there if I can punish him more on the turn...sometimes you have to be willing to take some risk if the board isn't drawlicious.

If the board was A /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gifT /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, it would be very different, and a raise would be in order, i think.

[La Brujita]

Good point, I am still worried about hands like AdJd Ad Qd but makes it a bit less risky. I still move in.

This Ray Zee-esque multiple thread thing is confusing for a simple man like me.

BTW if you all don't get the reference, read the great threads on a hand he played linked here:



Retro Posts (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1204434&page=2&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=365&fpart=1)

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
By the way, with a K or J, im not folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you explain the reasoning here?

[/ QUOTE ]

do the math...if a K or a J comes off, and he bets into you, it is much more likely that he has AK/AQ/QQ than KK/JJ.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I still move in.


[/ QUOTE ]

bawk baaawk baawk bawwk

[sdplayerb]

Good, we agreed on pt1.
I'm definitely not flat calling as it appears I have a huge hand, or JT, so he will likely slowdown on less he hits big on the turn, so why let him draw free.

If it was suited I would push..but since it isn't I want to potcommit him if he calls. So I would make it 6K.
He pretty much has to play AQ..it would be a nice and makeable fold..but against a LAG, he really should play it.
Thus why AQ UTG sucks!

I'm guessing he also has AK, for a split pot.

[sdplayerb]

i was thinking the same thing..Q is the only turn scare card.