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12-24-2001, 06:54 PM
Maximizing your profit from stud's "Money


hands"


A discussion of the "marginal hand complex"


Synopsis : And introduction to the group of starting hands that make up the marginal hand complex. And an explanation of the importance of developing a correct strategy for their play.


If you want a relatively safe way to generate a modest return on your investment while playing seven card stud, then your safest method is to use a strategic system which has a rather rigid set of starting hand requirements. And one which also has a rigid set of requirements as to when and how to continue with your hands.


And there is NOTHING wrong with that approach. Some studies have shown that only 5% to 2% of players are long term winners at Casino poker. And if you can play at the level that you are making money at the game, you are doing well, what ever strategy you are using.


But once you become more sophisticated in your skills, if you want to maximize your profit from playing Stud, then you are going to need to expand your game strategy, and look for extra opportunities to make money on your starting hands.


These extra playable hands are what I refer to as "The Marginal hand complex"


I should forewarn you that, I feel that there are only two basic ways to be able to play this group of hands profitably.

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The first is to be born "with a natural gift for the game"( which I feel is probably a latent expression, of one of the recessive genes for autism, (The "Rain Man" would be an example, not of a recessive expression, but rather of a full blown true dominant gene's expression) But if you aren't one of those, one in a quarter million "gifted players" (which I am not ) then you are going to have to rely on a "feel for the game" that you have developed though long hours at the table, and also often through long hours hitting "the books"( Participating in twoplustwo incidentally is an excellent way to "hit the books")


If you aren't at this stage of sophistication in your career yet, your best approach is to slowly integrate this class of starting hands into your strategic inventory. Starting with the strongest of the marginal hands, and then slowly progressing to playing the weaker marginal starting hands.


Maximizing the profit we generate from playing seven card Stud is often not as much a function of how we play our big hands.(Every one plays a starting hand that is made up of a set of Aces well) Nor is it so much a function of avoiding weak starting hands. (We all know when to muck "that rainbow pile of dead rags")


Maximizing our profit often comes from properly playing the marginal starting hands we are dealt.


I am not aware of any poker book that has detailed all of the considerations involved in playing the "marginal starting hands complex". This is true simply because of the complexity of the topic. If you went into that depth of detail on all of the different aspects of poker, you wouldn't have a book, but rather an encyclopedia of poker.


Marginal starting hands often can only be played out of specific positions, and under the specific conditions. And continuing with these hands past third street often require a through analysis of the potential strength of your hand in proportion to the changing potential strengths of your opponents probable hands. And to be able to analyze the game at that depth requires a through knowledge of the same.


Also Marginal starting hands often have to be analyzed with a four dimensional perspective (calculating their flush, straight, pair and potential pair probabilities both additively and simultaneously) in order to determine if their potential profit outweighs the potential risk of playing the hand. This is one of the three main reasons that Stud is the most challenging form of poker to master. And I also feel that, that is why it is also the most appealing form of poker to the player that enjoys a challenge..


What I suggest we do, as a forum, is to take the time and effort required to analyze the various marginal starting hands in the depth that is required for them to be played profitably.


A thorough analyses should include a listing of the potential hands. The conditions under which they can be played. The potential unique risks that each hand carries. And the strategies needed to know which actions should be taken to play the hands optimally.


Marginal Starting Hand Complex : Theorem NO. 1


The greater the ante to the primary bet ratio, the greater the variety of marginal starting hands that have to be included in our strategic arsenal if we are going to beat both our opponents and the rake.


For example : A player should consider playing a larger variety of marginal starting hands, if he is playing in a game of stud with a split betting structure of $5 / $ 10 dollars, which has a $ 1 dollar ante, than he would with a 50 cent ante.


While, on the other hand, if a player is playing in no ante game he should only rarely, if ever play marginal starting hands.( see chapter 4 of David Sklansky's" The theory of poker" for an in depth discussion of this concept")


To start our analysis, I suggest that we start with the sub set of hands that carry the least risk. And that we analyze them under the most appropriate conditions.


One example would be in loose passive games, which have had a minimal amount of third and fourth street raising. And I suggest that we consider the play of these hands out of last position, only in hands in which 3 opponents have already called the bring in bet, and in which no completion of the bring in bet has yet been made.


I am going to follow this posting with another posting reviewing how I would analyze a particular marginal starting hand. For this first example I am going to discuss the considerations of playing a starting hand which contains "Two big cards with a two flush."


I would appreciate any opinions, and or criticisms by our forum members of my analysis and of this discussion.


If other members have other marginal starting hands that they would like to analyze, those topics would be appreciated. I propose that as a Stud forum we progressively review the entire spectrum of the "Marginal hand complex."


PS. And this project will take a hell of a lot of work, but what better use can we make of our time, while we sit here waiting for our game to get called down.


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ

12-25-2001, 01:16 AM

12-25-2001, 11:40 AM
I think its a great idea , maybe a little to ambitious. However like most large projects, sectioning it into small pieces will enable its completion.


I look forward to witnessing/contributing to the discourse.


Yvonne

12-25-2001, 08:31 PM

12-26-2001, 01:05 PM
I'm not criticizing your project in any way, since I like your posts, but this is my instinctive reaction to your proposed subject: To maximize profit, why not spend more time looking for those situations in which your opponents are drawing dead/making mistakes? Adding marginal starting hands to your repetoire would only be useful for that subset of games where you can limp in cheaply and have good implied odds, correct? Whereas the principle of seeking a situationally high expectation with accompanying minimized risk might apply to many different games.

12-27-2001, 09:13 AM

12-29-2001, 02:33 PM
well, as a player who pretty much exclusively plays middle limit stud where the ante is 10% of the big bet, I think this issue of which 'marginal' hands to get involved with is certainly crucial to winning play. To me there are a few important distinctions:

(3-3) 6 or (5-5) 2 and the like

I consider completely unplayable at a full table although they may be seen as marginal. I think the main thing that has made me into a winning player after years of work at it is immediately dumping these hands where you run the risk of getting trapped into the classic sh-tty 2nd place two pair etc. etc.

I have a great fondness though for the whole gamut of 8-9-J/ 9-J-Q / T-J-K etc.

Do we consider these hands marginal ?? My experience with big one gap straights is that they are very profitable... the two flush is nice.... what is the percentage gained there (4% ??)

The idea of going to 4th st. having four cards to catch to get the monster open ender going seems very important... still something like 5-7-8 I don't think I would ever commit a chip for, unless it was me against the bring-in.

How about A-xx ?? Marginal or unplayable ??

I lean toward unplayble...


The texture of the table seems paramount.... if it is one of those rare tight tables with the big ante I think there is a lot of value in stealing with hands like K-Q-9... helps to get action when you have the real deal...

In the more commonly found loose-passive table I reckon that my marginal starting cards figure to have better chances than most of the others, so why not.

But the idea of needing the'feel' in that jungle out there is paramount. Have to be ready to dump immediately once the warning sirens go off. If you can't trust and react to your reads you have no business being there...


Anyway it seems like a most important area. Thanks Doc Az. As you can tell from this ramble I am not so good at the business of formal analysis. Anyway thanks.

12-30-2001, 02:01 AM
Hello,Zorn,

I was surprised that you mention common loose-passive games at the middle limits!

How did these players ever graduate from low-limit games if they play loose-passively in the middle limits?


Please educate me. I'm confused!


Sitting Bull

12-31-2001, 07:56 AM
Hi Sitting Bull


Believe me it is a mystery to me as well. I play in Vienna which they like to say is different and difficult but as far as the seven stud goes it is not so difficult if you have the discipline. The limit I'm talking about is roughly the equivalent of $15-30 although I play also the equivalent of $7-14. But who cares where they get the dough from ?? There is one guy who I have never seen walk in without dropping off about a grand or more. At that limit. Plays and raises most every hand. Get on his left and smile.

One answer I think is that for whatever reason in Europe it is viewed by many as an expensive form of entertainment and they understand that most likely they're going to lose, and lose everything in front of them. I have even watched some at the biggest limit, which is something like $70-140, putting in the over-overcall (3rd call, what's the name for that ?) with two pair tens. Yup I swear it.

So you can see why the most consistent guy at that game just bought a new apartment for $600 000.

Lots of Chinese players=action... also lots of middle eastern players.... who knows.

01-04-2002, 10:38 AM
Hi zorn, you list the below two hands:


"well, as a player who pretty much exclusively plays middle limit stud where the ante is 10% of the big bet, I think this issue of which 'marginal' hands to get involved with is certainly crucial to winning play. To me there are a few important distinctions:

(3-3) 6 or (5-5) 2 and the like "


as horrible hands. With several limpers for the bringin, why isn't a hand like 336 and 552 playable? Now, I can see why (3-6) 3 and (5-2) 5 is unplayable, but the 336 and 552 hands have a 1/22 chance of hitting (assuming your cards are live, and 5 limpers), and if you hit on 4th, you stand to win most of the time, right? A much bigger pot than 25 times the bringin. If you miss on fourth, you'd fold to a bet.


- Tony

01-04-2002, 12:04 PM
Yeah I hear you Tony. The shot at hitting the hidden trips. Believe me I wince when that card comes flying by after I've mucked my little pair in the hole. But let's say for example you have


(44)6 and catch a 5.... then you are in there for one more card because of the baby straight working...

or you catch the 6 and then you have to push push real hard to thin the field with two little pair... and I think the two little pair, at least at the type of table I'm at, are big time money burners....

Or you catch a live Ace.... now shouldn't you play with the help of that big live kicker ??

More info.... where I play the bring in is half the little bet, making the structure basically 2-5-10-20... so that little investment initially isn't so little... I guess with the more common

1-3-10-20 structure your point has more validity.

And anyway there's a complete to 10 about 70% of the time. Then so often I'm looking at my little pair and two rags on 4th and mucking and thinking I just blew off five antes for nada....

But the overriding point to me is that there is this gray area on 4th between monster trips and a clear fold that is just best not to be in.

I'll save my money for 8-9 J etc.

01-04-2002, 01:48 PM
I think a problem with making small trips on 4th street w/a hand like 552 is that at low limits, you can't push this hand on 3rd street to narrow the field. You're letting the other limpers draw for free and if they make 4-card holdings they like, you can't drive them out now. Therefore you may have to fill to win.


The other day I played a little looser than usual (passive table) with 335 and tripped up on 4th street. Player to my right bet and I raised him; player to my left called. It turned out the player to my left had a hidden pair of Jacks and a Jack had fallen to her on 4th street giving her trips as well; but we both failed to fill and lost to the flush draw, who made his flush on the river. I was third best in that hand with my trips! The trip Jacks should have re-raised me thus driving out the flush draw but she was a rock and didn't understand the utility of this.

01-05-2002, 05:45 AM
Hello,Zorn,

Thanks for the explanation. They're playing for enjoyment--not to make money. These players already have lots of money. So why should they play for money?

3Rd call bet=capping the pot or putting in the last allowable raise.


Sitting Bull

01-05-2002, 06:06 AM