Try to suck out?

5-10 stud, suits not important for this hand.


3rd street: A decent, tight player (DT) brought it in with a 7 up. A loose aggressive mid-position player (MP) with a Q up called, I raised to 5 in late position with (J Q) J. Jacks were live. I figured MP would have raised with Qs, and I had one of his outs. DT and MP both called.


4th street: DT caught a 3, MP a 9, me an A. I bet and both called.


5th street: I caught another A, but DT paired his door.

DT: (x x) 7 3 7

MP: (x x) Q 9 2

ME: (J Q) J A A


I bet, DT raised, MP folded. I bet even though DT paired his door partially because he was the bring-in, but when he raised I put him on trip 7s. If he just had two pair I doubt he would make a move against open Aces. 7s, Js, As are all live. I considered folding, but decided to call as I figured that with implied odds I had close to the right price to try to suck out. Also, I'd been playing squeaky tight and was afraid that folding would make me look to easy to push off a hand.


6th street: we both catch bricks. I check, he bets, I call.


7th street: No help for me. I check, he bets. Can I fold Aces up here, or is a crying call necessary for the size of the pot?


Any thoughts, especially about 5th, 6th, and 7th streets, appreciated.


Thanks,

Caddy

Here's my input and you can take it with a grain of salt since I am still trying to learn the game.


On 5th street there are 6 BB + antes so let's say close to 7BB (assuming antes of 1$) when DT raises you. You see 5+3+3 cards and I assume a full table so 5 extra cards folded on 3rd street. A total of 16 cards seen, 37 remains. You have 4 outs in 37 cards making you a 8.25:1 dog to fill up on 6th street. With implied odds, I think you can call. Especially since if you catch either an A or Q, you make a better full house.


But, the key here is the you don't think he could make a play with 2 lesser pairs. Plus don't forget that he is tight and that he did call your raise on 3rd street, which implies that he has something. Most likely a 3rd 7. If this would be a looser agressive player, then I think a call is more than correct.


I would fold on the river.


Nicolas Fradet (The Prince)

I'm either going with my gut and folding when he

raises me back on 5th or committing to calling down. To give up on a $63 pot for $10 seems to me too weak. If this player is really tight, maybe he had a pair of kings or even aces in the hole to start and was trying to semi-bluff with two pairs,

in which case your aces and jacks will be good. Or maybe he came in with a three straight and the 3 made him a four straight and he saw a chance to semi-bluff with his pair of sevens and four straight. But if your read on this player is really solid, then take a second to think when he raises back and fold right then, on fifth, when the pot is only $33 and you have to throw in $10 more.

First, I think you got the pot wrong. Hero raised to 5 on 3rd and was called by 2 players, so 15$ in the pot. 15$ more on 4th. On fifth, hero bet and is raised. So there is 15+15+30 in the pot + the antes when he is facing the decision.


Second, hero said that the other player was very unlikely to be messing around. And Hero raised on 3rd with a J up then catches AA. His most likely hand is AAJJ. I don't think a decent tight player would raise with AA77 here, if he started with AA in the hole.


Nicolas Fradet (The Prince)

oops -- you're right, I didn't count the pot right.

There's $64, minus rake, assuming a .50 ante. I think you're probably right about point number 2, as well. That's why I'd definitely consider a fold. But with $50 in the pot and aces in the hole or a live four-card draw I don't think it's impossible that a decent, tight player might raise with something other than trips. In fact, you could argue that if he has a hand he wants to call with he may as well raise. One thing I'm sure about --

I'm either folding to the raise on 5th or I'm calling to the river.

Well I'm probably gonna be more aggressive than that. I'd reraise on 5th. Make him do the tough decisions. If he has trip 7s, he is in a very tough spot with JAA reraising his paired door card. He is against minimum Aces up, but more likely trip Aces, or even Aces full from his point of view.


If he keeps playing with you check 6th, and see if he bets. I often check raise 6th with a full, and this allows me to get more off the hand, as well as earning free cards with the high hand.


Anyway, once you reach the river you must call, if you have called the other streets. But i think reraising 5th is a much better play.

Hello,Caddy,

Fold! You were beat on 3rd if the player is tight .


Sitting Bull

Hello, Mr. Peterson,

A tight player would not raise a pair of A's showing unless he can beat A's up.

Why raise with the worse hand. For free cards? He's calling you all the way to the river! If you don't improve the 2 pairs,he'll bet if you check. Pray to the poker gods that you fill!


Sitting Bull

Dear Caddy,


First I would like to compliment you on the quality of your question. You did a good job of presenting the needed pertinent information to analyze your hand.


It is my opinion, properly playing against opponents that pair their door card, is one of the major keys to winning at middle limit Stud.


I like to classify certain opponents into different groups according to there action habits. The player that you describe as DT I would refer to as a Bear. So let's see what my thought proses would be if I were playing this hand against, The Bear.


On third street, like you, I would have raised with my baby paint (I feel that this is just as important to do in order to obtain information, as it is to obtain isolation)


On third I would be thinking "Great the Bear called my raise, I've also got The Loose Goose in the hand with me too, but the Bear is the danger.


"Well what would the Bear call my raise with?

The most common hand would be a live pair. If the Bear had had a buried big pair, or if he had had a pair with a live Ace of King kicker, he would have reraised me back to knock out the Goose.


"What else would The Bear call with, well a live open 3 straight is a possibility. He wouldn't call a raise to play in a 3 way pot with a gut shot straight.


He would also call with a live 3 flush but the fact that 2 of his flush cards are dead means the only way the Bear would call the hand would be if he also had a live Ace and King in the hole.


On fourth street I'd be thinking


"Well lucky me, the bear caught a big brick. It's not of his door suit either so good by possible flush draw. He still could have an inside straight draw though.


But what was it that Ray and Mason said about using mathematics to help determine the probability of your opponents hand?"


"Oh yes (Bay's law of probability) "When predicting an opponents probable hand, the hand with the greatest mathematical probability is the most likely hand that he will hold."


So since a player will be dealt a 3 straight for a starting hand only 2.3% of the time, but he will be dealt a pair to start with 17% of the time.


Mathematically the Bear is 7 times as likely to have started with a pair than a straight.


And including the fact that the Bear would be less likely to call a raise with a small straight, the odds are probably 14 or 20 to one that he does have a pair.


Now what are the mathematical chances that Bear's pair is a pair of 7's. That's 2to1 in favor of his pair being sevens. For 66% of the time.


Now the Bear won't be calling a double bet with an unimproved pair, so if he doesn't hit his set on fifth street, it's good by Bear. And the chances of that are 19 to 1 against him. "Too bad Bear but that's what you get for calling with that baby pair"


Then on fifth street


"For the love of God would you look at that, 41 cards left in the deck and the Bear hits one of his 2 sevens.

"Why is it always me." And look at this, what happened to my hand I hit another Ace. Aces up against his paired door card. How do you spell S-t-u-c-k.


Well am I really stuck? What could he have again. He has no possible Flush ,No Aces or Kings up or he would have bet earlier. A 1 in 20 chance of having a gut straight with a pair. BUT he could have 2 small pair, like pocket sixes and sevens for example. The chances of that are 1 in 3 (33%) and, even if he does have a set I still have a 17% chance of making Jacks or Aces full.


So what I'll do here on fifth is check, if he has 2 small pairs he will probably check, and if he does I will come out betting on 6th street and then again on the river.


If he bets his hand, I'll call. If I fill my Jacks on 6th street I'll bet. If I fill my Aces and have a set on top, I'll check since the Bear would fold to a bet. And then Bet on the River. If I miss every thing I'll go ahead and call his river bet. I only have to win that river call 1 in 8 times to make it profitable.


"I sure am glad that I raised with my baby paint on third street, or I never would have known where I stood on this hand"


And Lord if I could play just one hand today when my opponent DIDN'T hit his door card, I would appreciate it.


Caddy thanks for raising this Interesting question.


PS. If all that I had had on fifth street was an unimproved pair of Aces or less, I'm going to be waving good by to the Bear, when he pairs that door card.


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ


PSS. Just out of interest Caddy were you playing with a 50 cent or a $1 dollar ante?

"I bet even though DT paired his door partially because he was the bring-in."


This logic would be correct if there was no raise on thord street. But once he has called the third street raise and the fourth street bet, it is much more likely that he has a pair to start.

When you play a lot, certain thing happen that just seem to defy the odds.


One of those for me is the frequency with which I pair my door card when I am the bring in.


I will be sitting there saying to my self "great a split pair of twos with an unsuited seven"

And then bang you hit your set.


The rest of the table discounts your hand "because you were the bring in,

And now you are off and running.


With all of the freak negative things that seem to happen in stud its nice to have one that's positive.


Most sincerely,


Doc

Hey Larry,


In the games i play most tight players wont play a small split pair like 7s on after 4th if they don't improve, particularly not if they are at risk of getting sandwiched. A brigin player in this circumstance is more likely to have a hidden pair (which he may have tripped on 4th admittedly) than a split pair. He plays on because he gets good value if he hits hidden trips, and can buy the pot if he pairs his doorcard. I would much rather have 55A or even 336 than 9K9 for these reasons.


I still think a reraise is a good play against a tight player, capable of dropping trips on 5th.


However i play a lot more hilo stud than high only, and it is rarely correct to play a small split pair in a multiway pot in hilo.

Thanks for the excellent analysis, Doc. I like your style of posting. To answer your question, this was a 50 cents ante game.


If anyone's interested, I folded when the Bear bet on the end, so I hope he had the trip 7s :-).


Regards,

Caddy

Yeah, I haven't done the math, but off hand I'd say you're about 5.76 times more likely to trip up when you're the bring in then not. You're also 100 times more likely to get well paid off.


Maybe one of the math whizzes could give the equation I'm afraid I'd misplace an ampersand or something...

Dear Caddy,


Sometimes we get the bear, and sometimes the bear gets us.(But that's all part of the fun of the game)


Last week I posted a Bear story of my own.


Hopefully next week you and I can both have a hand to analyze about the three way contest we were in against the Silly Goose and the Village Idiot.


"Doc have you forgotten that, so far this month it's: Village Idiot 4 Doc 3"


"Ya that slipped my mind"


Personal regards'


Doc AZ

Hello,Mason,

I would give him a split pair on 3rd. He would not have raised on 5th with two under-pair to a pair of A's showing.He tripped up when he paired his door card.

He's reading Caddy's hand for A's and J's.


Sitting Bull

Wasn't he described as a decent tight player? What decent TIGHT player continues to 5th where it costs him on 3rd and 4th, when all he has is a split pair of sevens against a Queen and an J?


I would think it's very unlikely he has trip sevens. Much more likely to have a hidden pair, and he is making a move after pairing his door card. Why would a tight player stay with an underpair, when he doesn't figure to be paid off well if he hits trips, and has little chance of winning if he doesn't?


Apprently there's noone else here who would reraise, but i feel that if you only reraise when you can beat trip 7s, you are giving far too much info away.


Your reraise should say "I probably can beat trip sevens, but i may have only aces up". It definitely should not say, "i'm never going to reraise unless i have trip aces minimum". I like to make the game more difficult for the other players than that.

Yes well, I couldn't agree with me more on that one.