7Stud8 big draw

Heads up on 4th street, (2s3s)4s5s vs (QQ)QT.


Folded cards are 9c,Td,Ts,Kh, and 7d.


Raising war breaks out until one player is allin.


Which hand holds the edge here? How many splits, and how many scoops for either hand?


This is an actual hand, I just suck at the maths.

The straight flush draw has to have a huge edge here.


It has ten outs (four 8s, three 7s, three 6s, and three As) with three cards to come to take half the pot.


It can win the entire pot with the As or 6s (not counted above)


It may also win the entire pot with any Ace, any six or any spade.

I'm with dynasty on the sf being a huge favorite.

I'd express it a bit differently -- 15 outs for

low (all A, 6, 8 and three 7s) out of 41 cards you've not seen -- that's about 2.75-1, but you have three shots so it's better than even odds.


The other hand can't make a low, so any low you make is a lock.


On the high side, you've got 7 spades you can catch for a flush (I'm assuming one of the Qs is a spade), and all As and 6s for straight. Again, 15 out of 41 cards, better than even odds to make one or the other by the river.


The queens have one Q and one 10 that can beat you if you do catch, plus the possibility of catching a different pair. That's pretty slim odds.


Some of your "good" cards help you both ways, which is a huge advantage because it means all you need is one card to set up a scoop.


I'd think your odds of scooping would be close to 50-50 here, so I'm loving the sf.


How'd it turn out?

I held the Straight Flush draw, and scooped with the 7s on the river, after 2 bananas on 5th and 6th.


I took heavy critiscism for overplaying my draw, and was told i was lucky to river a win. I told them that it wasn't a one card draw to get lucky, i had 3 cards to draw and an awful lot of cards to catch. Would like to know what the actual percentages are if Buzz or someone with a calulator for a brain can work it out.

"I told them that it wasn't a one card draw to get lucky, i had 3 cards to draw and an awful lot of cards to catch."


Why would you give you opponents strategy tips at the table? Let them think you're stupid and lucky.

his hand(qqqt) is worth about 30 cents on the dollar. he would do a little better but the folded cards hurt him.

Re: SFdraw vs. Trips ("Other").


The probability that SFdraw will make at least a straight or flush = 0.75 .


The probability that SFdraw will make a low is 0.78 .


The rough probability that Other will make a Full or Quads ~ 0.15 (seems high, but that's it - and this even leaves out the possibility of catching a pair different from TT).


Let's do a quick calculation that is accurate to a few %.


The probability that SFdraw will improve to at least st8 or flush and that Other will not improve ~ 0.75 * 0.85 = 0.64 .


These situations provide SFdraw with ~ 64% equity in the pot since he/she scoops. From this one already sees that Other has less than 34% equity in the pot.


The probability that SFdraw will make a low but not improve high ~ 0.78 * (1-.75) = 0.20 .


These situations provide SFdraw with

~ 1/2 * 20% = 10% equity in the pot since he/she splits.


Hence, approximately, SFdraw has ~ 64% + 10% = 74%

equity in the pot. We've left out, in particular, the small number of situations where both improve high with SFdraw hitting "one of those things".


It follows that Other has ~ 26% equity in the pot.


These numbers are accurate to about 5% only. The equity of Other is actually a little bit higher than 26% because of the possibility of getting a pair other than TT.


I hope this is useful.


Comments?

Yeah seems good enough to me, and certainly justifies reraising until it was all out there.

Your opponents don't sound too bright--considering that with two cards to come about half the cards left in the deck give you a scoop or a guaranteed split, and against your scoop possibilities your opponent has only two outs (20-1) for a re-draw or needs to catch another pair with three cards to come.


You are a favorite in 7-Stud high only in this situation!

There is no way QQQT is boating or quaddin only 15% of the time. It is at least 30%.


Actually I did the calculation 39% of the time QQQT boats or quads. The numbers are messy, but Ill show if there is a demand...


One really should find these probabilites and then we could find the equity for each.


P(Q's quad)


P(Q's boat)


P(Q's make a st )


P(Q's amke a flush)


P(Q's make a straight flush)


P(2345 makes a flush but no low)


P(2345 makes a st but no st flush)


P(2345 makes quads)


P(2345 makes a low but no flush or st)


P(2345 makes st flush).


After doing all of these then one can give the equity for each side..

Remember, two of his 10s were dead

Suspicious:


In my original calculation, I noted that I neglected the probability that Other would make a Full with a pair other than T's. I just did a calculation, in response to your post, and I find that Other will actually fill up with a pair other than T's 10.3% of the time. I admit that I did not realize that probability was so high. I now find that Other will fill up or boat about 26+10= 36% of the time.


Lt me know whether you agree or disagree. Did I make a mistake in my drowzy state?


Thanks,

JI

I meant, of course, fill up or make quads.