Would you call this stud bet?

Dear friends,


Saturday night I was playing 6/12 stud at a Casino that I usually don't play at. Consequently I only knew one player in the game.


In this particular hand I was the bring in, with a split pair of fours and a six in the hole, rainbow, with all rank cards live.


(6h 4d) 4s


Four players called my bring in, no one completes the bet.


The callers included, Sadam, the player on my immediate right, who called with a live Ace of spades, and three other spades out. He was the only player that I knew. And had Sadam had Aces he would have almost always raised.


Then Sadam with his Ace in the door,catches a Queen of clubs. And there were no other Queens that had come out on either third of fourth, and his Ace stayed live.


I catch a 6 giving me two pair, sixes and fours all my ranks are live. Sadam bets his Ace Queen I read him for probably Queens.


(6h 4d) 4s 6d vs As Qc


I raise Sadam's Ace Queen with my 2 small pair. And the rest of the table folds up to Sadam who calls. The pot now has 34 dollars in it (rake of 4 including jackpot dollar)


Sadam, the player with the Ace in the door looks at me and says " Doc, you raise my big pair, you have trip sixes or two pair?"


"Sadam" I said "You know that I can't answer that, unless you have a subpoena"


I figure Sadam properly wouldn't read me for having a baby straight draw, since I had raised with 2 possible overcallers behind me.


The next cards are dealt. Sadam's Ace Queen catches another Queen. And I catch a 10 brick and have a rainbow board.


Sadam smiles at me and says "Doc you going to call my $12 dollar bet, with your baby trips? $12 dollars is all I have.


Sadam slides his $12 dollars into the center and says, "All in."


There are 46 dollars in the pot.


"Time called" I say to the dealer.


Would you have called Sadam's $12 dollar bet.


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ

No. My guess is you need a boat to win and are not getting sufficient odds to chase. If he has trip queens, your boat could get crippled by a bigger one. You played it right on 4th, he caught perfect on 5th. Get out cheap here; even if you hit and are good, you have no more money to collect. JMO.


Jeff

ask him if he can get more money from his wife, and then call.


brad

Hello,Doc,

I would not play two under pairs heads-up against an overpair in a 6-12 game;however,in a 15-30 or higher game ,I would have.


Sitting Bull

You're getting approximately 4-1 so I think you can call because he's all-in. If you were going to have to call more bets on 6th and 7th streets, then I think it's an easy fold.


I'm assuming your 6s and 4s are live. With approximately 36 unseen cards (you didn't tell us how many players saw fourth street) and four cards to make a boat, it's just a little more than 4-1 to make your hand by the river.


So, the odds aren't quite right if he's got Queens-up or trip Queens. But, you may already be winning so I think a call is good.

I think you should call here. If he was not all in it may be a different story but he may just be making a desperate play here. He could only have a three flush or a broadway draw for all you know.


Pat

The ante is *higher*, proportionally, at $6/12 than at $15/30 ($1 vs. $2), so I don't see why you'd make this call in one game and not the other. (Correct me if your game is different from mine, Doc.) I'm with Dynasty and Patrick on this one. I think we have a call, although I'd probably have to ask for time before I made the call myself. /images/smile.gif

Friends,


Most of the time at the end of a session I feel comfortable with the actions that I have taken.


I don't always feel that I took the right action, but I feel that know what I should have done.


This call was a right brain left brain battle.

My right brain said in your gut you know he has a set of Queens, or Aces up. So to win the hand, you are going to have to have to fill (17% probability) and even if you do he will redraw out on you (30% for a set,17% for 2 pair, IF he isn't all ready full.


But my left Brain was saying look he's all in. And besides what the hell does this YOU KNOW mean, lots of times you thought that you knew but you didn't (Remember those)


So what does his all in bet mean any way.Sadam is a gambler. Besides there aren't going to be any more bets that you have to call. Maybe he led out the betting on third with four big cards, or three big cards for that matter. Maybe you are still in the lead. Or will out draw him.


Then my left brain said but remember how his eyes widened when he say that Queen.


So any way I mucked my cards. Sadam showed no emotion (as usual) as he raked in the pot, the guy in seat one just shook his head. Bemoaning the fact that he had dropped pocket tens when I raised, not knowing how dead his hand was.


I have thought about that hand a dozen times since. I think that I made the right move and that I would do the same thing again. But my left brain keeps saying " In your heart you wish that you had called and you still wish that you had called"


Thank you all very much for sharing your opinions.


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ

I would call this bet anyday. If you are losing you are losing, but in all reality, he probably has a pair of queens and a draw. Worst case scenario you are dead, but can only lose $12 anyway.


But then again i wasn't there.

when he said he had a big pair you should have a clue to whether he is lying or not. that is the key here.


but your comment about not raising with a straight draw if you had it here is wrong. you see by raising with straight draws here you want to get it headup. this way you can win the pot by them folding with catching anything from a 2 thru 8. as they would know you had a likely made hand. this is what you want as even if you had either two pair or the straight draw you would want him to fold after catching one of those cards.

The first question to ask is whether you would have called this bet without the theatrics.


It's not costing you much because it's the end of the betting. You're getting reasonable pot odds. I think you should call.


Also it might be worth the $12 to find out what Sadam is up to, for future reference.


It's not all bad if you lose, because the money stays on your right, and you have position over a player you have just learned quite a bit about.


TRLS

Dear Ray,


You make an excellent point. Had I raised with a straight draw in this situation, I might have been able to boost the winability of my hand by approx 20%. You are exactly right. Thanks for making that excellent point.


One of the transitions from middle to higher limit games, is that some of the moves that would be very strong in a higher limit game (because of the increased ability to isolate) are not as successfully at lower limits and therefor we may not consider them as we transfer in to games with more sophisticated opponents. As I've said before, it means a lot to have members of our forum "that have played all the limits."


Thank you again, for making that valuable point.


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ

I would have leaned toward folding, but I can see the argument that since he's all in, the pendulum could swing toward a call.


Just so I'm clear, though, at these limits, if Sadam isn't all in (and you're faced with potentially calling a few more BB), it's a pretty clear fold... right?


Doc.

Dear Linn,

You make a good point. You point out the reason why "I wish I had."


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ

Dear Doctor K,


Yes, you are exactly right. The fact that in this situation, had I called, I would have been free-rolling (catching cards without any possible further monetary investment) would have improved my implied odds for drawing out against the probable stronger hand.


If the paired Queens had had more chips to bet, it would have placed my hand in a situation of having even greater probable reversed implied odds.


(David Sklansky has a good discussion of this concept in chapter 7 of his book "The theory of Poker")


If you don't have that work, I would suggest that you buy a copy.


It seems that all of us are naturally drawn to buy books on topics like "How to win at stud or hold'em."


But I sincerely believe that (of his several excellent books) the most important book that David has published is his work on the theory of poker.


Because I feel that, it's the understanding of concepts like effective odds,right and left sided check raises, et all, that allow the good player to improvise and devise the best strategy to attack unique problems as they arise.


Thank you for raising this important topic.


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ


PS I'm glad to see that we have another Doctor in our forum. The math majors have been ganging up on us.

One of Roy West's best points, especially for lower limits, is that when you come to a situation where the call/fold decision is very close, go for the call. As Lin notes, you get the benefits of seeing how opponents play, plus you discourage people from running over you. Plus, in lower games, people so often play trash for too long you often are better off then you think. I've just been vividly reminded of this lesson, folding kings up on the river to a bet and call in front, figuring one of them had made a draw or trips, when both had lower two pairs!

Hello, Andy,

Didn't realize the ante was that high in 6/12? Same as in 10-20? My "bad"


Sitting Bull

Hello,Ray,

It seemed as if Doc's opponent was all-in. Hence,your post is not relevant in this situation.


Sitting Bull

Hello, Doc,

The philosophers are "Boss" at this forum--not the mathematicians!


Sitting Bull

its very relevant and you should take the time to undersatnd what i was trying to convey and not relate it to the example exactly.

Hi Larry,


Just because the game is small, doesn't mean the ante can't be big. The smallest game in my local room is a $2/4 stud game with a 50 cent ante and a $1 bring-in. The rake is 10% to a limit of $4.50, and they drop $1 for the jackpot. It's the most popular game in the room, and believe it or not, it's definitely beatable. Not that I bother anymore. /images/smile.gif

Hello,Ray,

You would have a difficult time convincing a descent player that you have a made straight. Above-average players don't play small or medium straights


Sitting Bull

Ps Since I failed to comprehend your other post,I apologize.