Monsters in the closet?

[wheelz]

This question may seem stupid, but I've been getting some pretty rough luck lately so I wondered if I'm playing scared or should've been legitimately worried this hand.

BB seems to be quite tight and very aggressive. Haven't played that many hands with him, but he seems to at least know what he's doing. He sat down with over $1000 at a 2/4 table, if that means anything...

PokerChamps 2/4 6-handed
Preflop:
2 folds, CO raises, Hero 3 bets on the button with 88, SB folds, BB caps, we both call.

Flop 845, 2 diamonds
BB bets, CO calls, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, CO calls, Hero caps, BB calls, CO calls

Turn: K of spades
BB bets, CO folds, Hero raises, BB 3-bets.

No-brainer cap, right? What if he calls the cap then leads again on the river? Cap again?

[The Setup]

I'd cap the turn as the only thing that beats you is KK and a very unlikely straight given the description of your opponent. You said your opponent is aggressive so he could have AA here. If he leads the river I raise and call a 3-bet.

[exist]

Based on your description he isn't going to cap with 44 or 55 and given his actions preflop, on the flop, and on the turn his likely hands are KK and AA. There are 3 combos of KK, 6 of AA. So from a purely mathematical standpoint he is twice as likely to have AA as KK. However his actions strongly suggest that he thinks he has a very strong hand. If you combine the hand reading with the mathmatical probabilities I think that you could argue that his actions make it likely enough that his hand is KK (likely enough being 45% or 50%) for you to just call down. However, if he is not reading your hand and his thinking does not extend too far beyond "I have Aces!" "Aces are great!" then to not continue rasing is a massive mistake. So against someone who is thinking about this hand at a deeper level I would just call down. Against someone who is not thinking, I keep raising.

[wheelz]

I was pretty convinvced he had kings after the 3-bet, but I capped just in case. After he lead again on the river, I knew to just call. He did indeed have kings.

After contemplating just calling down, I was afraid maybe I was getting soft after some of the stuff I had run into earlier. But despite it being unlikely he had kings, I was pretty convinced that he did.

Thanks for the comments.

Edit: I realize that capping the turn if I'm so convinced he has kings that I'm just calling the river is stupid (don't think the implied odds on my one outer were too high,) but I think capping then having him lead again is what convinced me. I figured him 3-betting the turn with just aces was possible, but for him to lead into my cap on the river... he seemed to know better than that.

[Cleveland Guy]

Are you suggesting folding to 1 more bet on the river here?

[wheelz]

I'm suggesting that if I cap the turn, I must not think he has kings, so therefore I'd raise the river if it's a blank. When I just call the blank on the river, that must mean I think he does have kings, making my turn raise a waste of a bet. I'm just saying I wasn't convinced until the river, which is why I capped then called.

[Grisgra]

It may not make sense to cap the turn and then just call the river, but that's probably what I would have done.

[Benjamin]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm just saying I wasn't convinced until the river, which is why I capped then called.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, makes sense ... new information = new read. I think you played it fine.

B.

[Cleveland Guy]

I think that's fine. I must have mis-read and thought you considered folding for 1 bet here on the river.

[wheelz]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that's fine. I must have mis-read and thought you considered folding for 1 bet here on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now THAT would be playing weak.