flopped set in eight-way pot

[M.B.E.]

This is from a $22 NLHE rebuy tournament on Stars, about half an hour after the rebuy period ended. Most of the stacks at the table, including mine, are about 15K. Blinds 100/200, ante 25.

UTG raises to 400. Next guy calls. I am next; I call the 400 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Everyone else calls too, except the button who folds. So we are eight-way with 3425 in the pot.

Flop comes A/images/graemlins/club.gifJ/images/graemlins/club.gif8/images/graemlins/club.gif. The small blind (who happens to be a 2+2er) bets 2500. The next four players fold (including the preflop raiser). I am next and raise all-in, to 14600.

Thoughts? If you need to know my opponents' stack sizes, the small blind had me covered but only barely. Of the two players behind me, I had one covered by about 1000, the other had me covered by about 3000.

[srblan]

Yikes, why not just call or make a medium raise? If you are up against a made flush, you are drawing and the raise before the flop leads me to believe that at least on opponent probably has an ace, which reduces the number of outs to pair the board and make your boat.

A smooth call to me shows a great deal of strength. Yes, you are worried about a club coming off, but someone with Ax K /images/graemlins/club.gif might decide that you are protecting a weak hand and try to run you down anyway. Betting almost 15000 into a 6000 chip pot seems like a VERY risky endeavor with two to act behind you. This is a hand that I'd like to get some value with if it's best, but if not, I'd prefer not to go broke kicking myself because I moved in on a flush with only a set.

[Cooker]

I don't love the push, because 8 way I think there is a pretty good chance someone will have a flush (how many unsuited hands are people going to play for a raise?). I figure someone shows you K/images/graemlins/club.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif on this hand, but you do have several redraws at this spot, so maybe a call isn't so bad. Also there is a possibility that someone got cute with AA preflop (I would have pushed preflop from SB with that big a pot already going, but I see a lot of slowplays with AA and KK). That 2500 bet just looks too much like it wants a call to me. Maybe I am too weak tight here, but I think I fold. Heck I know I fold, because I folded trip kings in a similar situation yesterday and I was right.

Not to mention that a 2+2er would know that the odds were very nice to call the preflop raise with any 2 suited cards and I really think this is a questionable move. Plus, is he really going to bluff into 7 people??? The SBs bet looks like a made nut flush hoping for a little payoff from smaller flush draws (or a smaller flush) by giving them fairly nice drawing odds. I will be very interested to know how this hand played out.

[srblan]

I don't necessarily think that a made nut flush would bet in this spot with that much action before the flop because someone is likely to take a stab at the pot with 8 people in there. A slowplay for a made flush could be deadly, but with 8 people in the pot, I might check and hope that someone gets bold. If the pot is checked around and the board doesn't pair, you still know that you've got the best hand, but the chances that the board will get checked around are not that great since someone with a big club might take a stab or two pair or something of that nature would dread seeing a fourth club on the board.

[Pat Southern]

I like the push. If the 2+2er has the flush ,Given his position on the PF raiser, I think he would have to go for a check raise here to trap 6 people between him and the bettor. Even if he does have the flush, you have 7 outs on the flop and 10 on the turn. Its a big enough pot, dont try to get cute on a dangerous board.

[SossMan]

Well played. The worst thing would be to flat call and see a 2 /images/graemlins/club.gif peel off on the turn and have SB bet into you again. I like pushing here because it forces club draws to pay the wrong price to draw. SB could easily be betting out here without a flush. AJ, AxK /images/graemlins/club.gif, AxQ /images/graemlins/club.gif,88, A8. Folding here would be terrible. Horrible. Unthinkable. Disasterous. Weaker than richard simmons at a brad pitt birthday party. Yuck.

[Cooker]

I wouldn't want to get broke on this hand. I think folding outright is too weak (which it looked like I was suggesting in my previous post). I think putting in a bet the size of the pot (about 5800) is the best move in this position. This way, you make it just wrong for flush draws, but you don't bust yourself against a made flush if you get reraised for all your chips from behind or from the SB. This way, you have plenty of chips to play with if someone has the flush. This was how I played the hand where I had trip kings in a 5-way pot where flop came K-high with 3 of a suit. I raised a bettor from early position the size of the pot and a guy behind me pushed and the orginal bettor called, and I got out of a tight spot without being crippled. They both had made flushes.

I would have preferred a significant preflop re-raise with the jacks to narrow the field. Looks like you would have won a heads up pot against the UTG raiser, but it wouldn't have been a very big pot. At least with a reraise preflop, you can have a better idea what you are up against.

[adanthar]

If you raise 6K, you're giving odds for the SB to call his high club. This is horrible in a pot this size. I think pushing is clearly correct.

Incidentally, if you had top set, bet the pot and wound up against two flushes, chances are that unless all three of you had gigantic stacks you should've called.

[Cooker]

You are correct that the SB has the odds to call with a high club with this raise, but the reason I would be so careful here is because there are still 2 or 3 more people to act, and those 2 people cold called a raise from UTG before the flop after many callers which is likely to mean flush possibilites. I guess I am being overly cautious considering the size of the pot, but a made flush calls immediately and you have just given yourself 1.23 to 1 odds on a 1.99 to 1 shot. Folding equity might make this +EV, but with 4 still left to act on your raise I think pushing in cannot be the best play here. I don't think it is terrible, but I think there must be a better play and that is what I am looking for.

Also, the action described is a little confusing. Preflop, only 2 players act before him, meaning only 3 can fold after the SB bet I think. This means that there are still 3 live hands that have yet to act, but in his flop action 4 have folded between the SB and the player in question. 2 or 3 players left isn't terribly important, but it is the fact that so many people played for a raise that makes me worry more about the players behind than the SB.

And I realize that calling is positive EV with top set against 2 flushes already all in (I would be getting a little better than 2 to 1 on a 1.99 to 1 shot), but at that stage, I was in the money and looking to move up the ladder and since I started with less chips than both players, I decided to pass on this gamble to move up a little in money.

[SossMan]

If you bet the pot, get raised all in, and muck and he shows you AJ or A8 or 88 or AxK /images/graemlins/club.gif or AxQ /images/graemlins/club.gif, you are going to sh!t yourself.
Your push looks a lot like a big draw, so you should get calls from a wider range of hands that you are killing.

[gergery]

Good push.

I ran some numbers, and he has to have the flush AND call you more than 60% of the time here before your EV goes negative*.

I figure someone has a flush here around 50%** of the time, and maybe they’ll call 90% of the time with a made flush. So the math works out in your favor.


* 60% chance you’re called, and .33% chance you win when called, leaves you with 32,650 when win but 0 when lose.
Then 40% chance all fold and that leaves you with 20,550. Average those two vs. folding and having 14,600 right now to get breakeven #

** Chances of being dealt 2 suited cards 23%. Chances of those being clubs with this board ~5%, but I’ll bump that arbitrarily to 8% since people play suited cards more frequently. 1-.08 = .92 chance no flush for 1 person, .92^8=.51, meaning ~50% chance someone has a made flush. Obviously that’s extremely rough, but seems like a decent ballpark figure.

Figure some yahoo’s might call you with 1 pair 1club, or maybe two pairs or worse set and EV goes up from there.

--Greg

[Cooker]

Let me take a stab at estimating the EV of this play. I have the probability of one person holding a made flush in a field of 3 other players on a 3 flush flop at being an estimated 12% (fairly rough overestimate). Lets examine the EV of the all in bet. Lets assume that only a made flush will call, because people calling with other hands will only improve your EV (except AA, but I think the preflop action all but rules out AA since most would want to take down the pot right there and the PFR and potential smooth callers have already folded). So, roughly 88% (this is an underestimate) of the time, you end up with 20525. The other 12% you will outdraw your opponent to win about 33% of the time in a pot of 35125. So, your expected stack after the all in is

Stack = .88 * (20525) + .12*.33*35125 - .12*.67*35125 = 16628

So EV = +2028. When you figure in more hands that are likely to call, this will go up probably significantly. One could argue that perhaps the chance the SB has the made flush is much higher than a random distribution of cards, but this still appears to be a + EV situation, because a made flush would probably not be one of his more likely holdings. This is a very rough estimate, but I believe it errs mostly on the low side meaning the true EV is probably even better.

I now admitt that I was incorrect in recommending other strategies and the all in bet looks pretty darn good. I should have played around with the numbers a little before opening my mouth, and I should have attacked this situation more thoroughly after I found myself in something similar. Thank you for your comments, and showing me a potential error in my overall strategy (even though this is probably not a common enough situation to worry too much about missplaying it somewhat). Now if I can just stop folding my straight flushes, I think I will be on my way to being a decent player.

[SossMan]

Nice. I'm glad my instincts look to be right. Obviously, you would never do this math at the table, but the more you can become familiar with the underlying math, the better your instincts become.
Of course, you could also just say "always go all in on a flopped set if someone bets into you" and you wouldn't be too far from the "correct" strategy.

Oh, and I would never fold a straight flush...unless it wasn't the nut st. flush and a tight player reraised me.

[tiger7210]

Most of you think that based on +EV this would be a good spot to push but this is not a ring game its a tournament where you have to also think about survival. You still have a stack of 15K chips with blinds at only 100/200. In and 8 way pot you have to believe there is a very good possibilty someone already has a made flush here. So i can't see myself putting my tournament life at stake this early in a tournament when I'm probably behind. There will be times when you will catch your full house and win a big pot but even if you win this pot its way too early in the tournament to think you'll have a major advantage down the road. IMHO survival should come before risking my tounament life to pick up the 3200 chips that are in that pot. Chances are the only person calling you is when you're beat. The only time i would agree with making this push is if you feel that you're really a weak player and you need those chips to do well in the tourny.

[La Brujita]

My short answer is you play goot. I move in as well. Let them pay to draw, if not you are drawing-not so bad.

[Diplomat]

Hi MBE,

Besides re-raising pre-flop, I'm not sure if you can play it any other way.

-Diplomat

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
Chances are the only person calling you is when you're beat.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you show me a player who will fold AJ/A8/88 to a reraise on that board just because its monosuited, I will show you an exploitable weakness. You will get called by many worse hands when you push. That's what makes this play +EV.

Also...
there have been 9 ba-jillion threads on here that talk about chipEV vs. tourneyEV. The Hullmuthian argument (survive at all costs) simply doesn't fare well vs. the take almost any +EV early in a tourney (the Paul Phillips/Greg Raymer argument).
Survival, especially early in a tournament, is vastly overrated.

[M.B.E.]

A player behind me raised allin for 17500. He had 5/images/graemlins/club.gif2/images/graemlins/club.gif for a flopped flush. The other LP player folded, as did the small blind. Board did not pair, so for me the tournament was over.

[Cooker]

I think you should have raised before the flop, but I think I said that in one of my long winded posts earlier. Other than that, I think the push was the right choice. Why is it that it stings more that he really had a trash hand? Somehow K/images/graemlins/club.gifQ/images/graemlins/club.gif wouldn't have quite the sting. Probably because a reraise preflop might not have driven out KQs, but 52s probably folds to a reraise.

[M.B.E.]

On the preflop play, I like my coldcall. I'm quite happy to get in cheaply to a multiway pot with JJ. If I reraise (to 2000, let's say) then I probably fold to any reraise. (I certainly have to fold to a reraise from the original raiser.) Then I lose my chance at flopping a set in addition to losing the 2000 chips. If I reraise and get called, then my hand does not play well on the flop unless I flop a set. (Most of the time the flop will have at least one overcard to my jacks.)

With QQ in this spot there's a much better argument for reraising preflop, although calling would still be reasonable.

[Penetrater]

I dont think i would even raise. With 8 in the pot there is a very good chance you are up against a made flush. Even if you were certain you were not, waiting until the turn is not going to be a catastrophe here. What if the sucker mindlessly calls your all in with the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif?
At least by the turn you can narrow a draw down to less than 20%. After all, you haven't invested a mountain before you saw the flop.

[M.B.E.]

[ QUOTE ]
What if the sucker mindlessly calls your all in with the A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'd be pretty happy to get that huge stack in the middle as a 69:31 favourite.

[ QUOTE ]
At least by the turn you can narrow a draw down to less than 20%. After all, you haven't invested a mountain before you saw the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
It's irrelevant how much I personally "invested" preflop. The pot is pretty big nonetheless, so I'm not going to be happy giving a free or cheap card to a big club.

What this problem boils down to is how likely is it that someone flopped a flush. If you think that chance is pretty high, like 80%, then raising is pretty foolish and the only question is whether I should call or fold the flop. But there's no way the chance is as high as 80%.

Gergery's estimate was a 50% chance that one of my opponents flopped a flush. That seems a bit low to me, but if it's correct then pushing is the correct play, because half the time my hand is currently the best (and needs to be protected), the other half I've got a 30-35% chance of improving to the best.

[tigerite]

The chances of at least one opponent to complete the flush (after all community cards dealt) when there is a monotone board, with 8 players, is only 54.685%. So it must be less than this with only 3 of the 5 cards visible.

[tigerite]

In fact, it seems if you assume that no other flush cards will come before the river (so the final board is SSSxx) then the chance of one of 8 opponents having the flush is 32.560%. I guess the exact value is somewhere between the two.