push this with 11 outs?

[familyteeth]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t3000 (9 handed)

MP2 (t89827)
MP3 (t85998)
CO (t17514)
Button (t46735)
SB (t46529)
BB (t99488)
UTG (t51200)
UTG+1 (t64170)
Hero (t84064)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls t3000, UTG+1 calls t3000, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to t15000</font>, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls t13500, BB folds, UTG calls t12000, UTG+1 folds.

Flop: (t47700) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG bets t36050 (All-In)</font>, Hero calls t36050, SB folds.

Turn: (t119800) 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: (t119800) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: t119800

[PuckNPoker]

Assuming 11 outs, pot odds say you make the call, but you would be out/crippled over half the time in doing so, so you would need to be comfortable with that.

36050/119800 = 30%, odds you would need to make the call
and if you really think you have 11 outs you are about 44% to win. So from a math aspect it is fine to call.

[2005]

Hmmmm.... I had a similar situation in the 55 PLHE tourney on Stars today. 27 players left, 18 get paid. I open-raised to my usual 3BB or so w/ black QQ. flop is AK2 all spades. BB leads out for size of pot and I push for almost the full pot. He calls w/ K2, I miss and am out. This is one of the situations I've been in lately that I haven't thought enough about my action before taking it. I need to start taking advantage of my full time bank and thinking more than I have been. Anyways, your call was pretty easy b/c you'll still have chips and you're getting pretty close to the right odds anyways if all 11 outs are good.

Gavin Griffin

[JaBlue]

Who says you have 11 outs? This seems like a viable play from an Ace and the Queen of diamonds, in which case you're drawing PRETTY thin. It depends how often you think he has the Q diamonds...

The pot is laying you 2.4 to 1 on the call, so you need to win 30% of the time to break even with this play. Assuming you have 11 outs, you are 41% to win this hand. Assuming you have 2 outs, you are 8.4% to win the hand.

Your pot equity = (Probablity of Eleven outs)*.41 + Probability of having 2 outs)*.084 which just has to be greater than .30 to break even. Since you'll be crippled if you lose this hand, lets say that it should be greater than .35 for you to accept making the call...

if P11 = 85 and P2 = 15, your pot equity = .35+.01 = .36

So, if you think that the probability of you actually having 11 outs is 85% or greater, go for it.

I think that this is the case in this situation.

Also, it would be very wierd for UTG to play AA KK or QQ in this manner, but maybe its worth considering. I could see pushing QQ with the diamond in this spot, but I can't see him having it with the preflop action. AA/KK are usually limp-raises preflop too, so its hard to say that there's a good chance of him having AA-QQ, but it might be worth at least considering.

[zaxx19]

Im really taken aback by people telling you this was a good call...You may or may not even have outs(more than 2) in this hand i understand you got psychologically involved in the pot by raising then upset when an ACE and KING fell but i think your calling out of spite here to be honest... Your really at best having 13 outs and if you knew that for sure it still be a tough call in my mind if you think you can do well in the tourney without these extra chips...If you believe your gonna need a superior stack to play with the others effectively i guess then make the call i muck and curse a flop like that when i hold JJ...

[familyteeth]

thanks all for the feedback,
i look at it as a freeroll gamble against a shorter stack
with 3 to the flop i thought the call was right.
i played at this table for a while and was pretty sure utg had exactly AK, and i had him well covered.
i wasn't crippled and made it up to the top 10 in a couple of orbits
thanks for the feedback