Right odds to chase a bigger pair?

The other day I found myself in a $10-$20 eight handed ( $1 ante, $3 bring in) game in which I was dealt (7 A) 7. All fold around to a very conservative player with a Queen up who raises. This is a player I've played with many times before and know he has to have something, obviously most likely Queens, to make this raise. He's not the type that ante steals, dosen't mix up his high card raises with three flushes and straits, just about always has what he represents. No other Queens out, all of my cards live, am I getting the right odds to chase an almost definite bigger pair with only $11 in the pot? At $15-$30 this would be an easier decision with $21 in the pot, but at $10-$20?

My next question is how far to chase at this ante structure, heads up, with a live overcard kicker. What ended up happening is that I called his third street bet and played heads up with him until the river. Losing to Queens up against my unimproved pair of sevens. His board never improved in sight, but he did catch my Ace on 6th street.

Anything I should have done diffrent? All comments appreciated.


Mike

Hello,Mike,

It was OK to play 3rd and 4th,but with no improvement on 5th,you should have released your hand. It is too expensive to continue to play .


Sitting Bull

I think the mistake was playing on third street. With the pot that small you are making a small mistake by playing. Against a player who will raise with more than a big pair it is a definite mistake to not play, but against this player you should probably fold (future considerations exempted. But once you play as long as he does not make an open pair you should play to the river since the pot is big enough, even on fifth street. Also when you play this hand you probably should raise on fourth street if he bets into you. Most players just call here but if he is a weaker player it is worthwhile to try to get a free card. Too many stud players only think about free cards when they are on a draw.


So I would play the hand the opposite of what you suggest. Either way wont make a tremendous difference in the long run. What a great game!!


Pat

I can;t believe its a mistake to play here. However if the pot is unlikely to become heads up then it would be. I think if you play you should reraise on 3rd as this will pbly insure it becomes heads up, and when you reraise in the future your opponents can't be sure what you have.


(In most 10/20 games if someone reraises here they usually do have the Q's beat). Some players may even throw away Q's here. You could now take a free card on 5th or 6th depending on how things go.


Thought this play (playing a pair and an over card against a probable higher pair), is better in a higher ante game.


Maybe I give too much consideration to how this play affects future hands. For ex I would reraise w/ a hidden pair higher than his or possibly rolled up but if I only do this when i have him beat he won't continue very often.


ALso do you have a 2 flush?


I doubt you are more than a 45/55 underdog on 3rd, getting about 2-1 on 3rd could make it worth it especially if this will player will check to you on 5th or 6th if you show strenght.

_I_ would have caught the Ace on sixth street.

What else?


Seriously, I can't say that you were wrong to play the hand the way you did until you saw him catch your Ace. You were already behind. NOW, you are worse off. Save a couple of bets, I think.


--

Will in New Haven

I can't fold on 6th street just because he caught my Ace kicker. Nor do I think folding on 5th street is correct since there's $21 in the pot and he hasn't improved in sight. I agree with the suggestion of Pat's that I should of tried to buy a free card (since I was sure I didn't have the better hand) on 4th street most likely.


Mike

Sorry-


I was thinking of something else and typed the wrong amount. I meant I didn't think I could fold on 5th street b/c there was $51 in the pot at that point, not $21 .

Dear Mike,


You started your discussion with what I feel is the critical factor in my deciding whether I will play this hand.


And that factor is what are the UNIQUE POT ODDS FOR EACH PLAYER AT THE TABLE.


You did an excellent job of describing your opponents starting hand requirements, but you didn't mention what his fourth, sixth,and seventh street characteristics are.


I know that I tend to be too especial. But let me show you how I would play the hand. It won't tell you if the precall money in the pot, will compensate for the 10% difference in your probable win loss rate but it might just be helpful.


Of the 60 players that I regularly play against there are 3 that have similar starting requirements to the player that you described.


But they play their hands quite differently. Lets take Jim's style.


Jim will raise with the probable live Queens (but not if a dead Queen is out, and he will never raise with a set)


Then if he does have Queens, he will he will check on fourth street to see if I am slow playing Kings, Aces, or a set.


But if he has Kings or Aces in the hole he won't check fourth but will bet fourth.


If I check behind him on fourth he will bet on fifth (if I haven't hit an Ace or King , in which case he will check and call again.


If he has two pair on sixth he will always bet Unless I pair my door card in which case he will check and call with two pair and check and fold with just one big pair.


On the river he will bet with two pair and call a raise. And he will check and call with a pair of Queens.


That's a lot of detail but when I consider a call of this nature I ask myself:


1.Will I probably get a free card on fourth?


3 Will I probably get a free card on sixth?


3. Do I have increased implied odds because if I do hit my hand he will pay off my raise?


So while I know that mathematical if I play a random live smaller pair with a live over card against an over pair with a live kicker.


I will win the hand 45% of the time and loose it 55% of the time.


But my unique player odds against Jim are 58% versus 42% in MY favor against Jim over our life time.


So I am always going to call against Jim.


But against Wayne, who has the same starting requirements but who doesn't know what a free card is.


But will drop his hand if I hit my Ace on fourth or fifth and I try to bet.


And he will never pay me off on the river.


My Wayne odds are 60% to 40% against me over my life time.


So I will never call his raise.


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ

I have to agree with Pat here. Most times I believe you should fold here. I am a bit conservative. Sometimes you must make a stand just to stop the highest card up from raising on a steal or semi-bluff. . I think there is a time to play and even check - raise in an attempt to get a free card and see if you inprove (5 outs in 28). If you had 2 suited cards, might help

Doc,

That's brilliant. How do you remember such detail about every opponent?


I saved and printed your post on remembering exposed cards. Do you have another technique for players?


Waiting in anticipation,

KeithO