Fold AA preflop

[JNash]

A few months ago, I was berated extensively for a remark I made in a post that folding AA preflop can sometimes be correct. The comments were pretty nasty...weak player, worst advice ever, you have to play to win, etc., etc.

I just got done playing a SNG where I got busted going allin with 99. After thinking about it, this was exactly one of those cases where I shouldn't even have played AA...here it is:

$20+2 SNG on UB
4 players left, blinds at 100/200, payout is $100/$60/$40. Hero with 1800 chips is UTG. Button has ~400 chips, SB ~700 chips, BB has ~6700 chips. BB is maniac and will call with almost any 2 cards.

Does anyone believe that playing AA in this spot would be a good idea?

[Pepsquad]

I most certainly do. I'd come in for 3-4 time BB raise and pray to God that Mr. Maniac pushed with his "any two cards".

[redeye3030]

[ QUOTE ]

Does anyone believe that playing AA in this spot would be a good idea?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's a real good idea if you want to finish 1st.

[Irieguy]

It's never, ever correct to fold Aces preflop in a SNG no matter what conditions you can imagine (assuming traditional pay-outs).

I promise.

Irieguy

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone believe that playing AA in this spot would be a good idea?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you goal is $EV maximization, then yes. If you want to lose money/lower $EV over the long-run on this hand, then no.

If this thread is a joke, then I bit.

If there was some ridiculous situaiton where (for example) the payout was top 2 place only (say 60/40), BB had 8,000 chips, you had 1,998 chips, the other two players had 1 chip each and BB would call with any two....then it's a clear fold $EV wise...

...but I haven't yet encountered a situation in a 50/30/20 payout SNG yet where it was correct $EV wise to fold AA preflop.

[pistol78]

If you dont play AA 4-handed then what DO you play?

Or Do you just close your eyes and hope that the others somehow manage to bust each other up.

Come on man, are we really discussing folding AA? Lets talk about mucking KK preflop at least there we might have a very good argument.

[SmileyEH]

I folded AA preflop in a cash game once. Stick to your guns!

-SmileyEH

[Benholio]

[ QUOTE ]
It's never, ever correct to fold Aces preflop in a SNG no matter what conditions you can imagine (assuming traditional pay-outs).

I promise.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, the circumstances have to be pretty extreme, but I think we did recently find a real example of when someone should have folded aces. Remember? Right over here. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=1208703&page=1&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1)

[stlip]

In limit games where you cannot always stop multiple people from having the pot odds to stay all the way to the end trying to draw out their straights and flushes or hitting runner runner sets or two pair -- AA wins 80 percent of the time. If you're afraid of that, then what other kind of crazy decisions are you making in the name of better safe than sorry.

(I did have KK once against two AA hands and a K came on the flop -- that was sweet!)

[pistol78]

[ QUOTE ]
I folded AA preflop in a cash game once. Stick to your guns!

-SmileyEH

[/ QUOTE ]

this is just scared poker IMO. my friend did this once in a limit game, of course it was his first time playing in an B&M, and of course he was a total newbbie, what was your excuse.

[Daliman]

Yep, play em. Definite high expected value, especially considering the other small stacks will likely fold since you might get beat by big stack. If you lose, you lose, that's life.

[JNash]

For those who want to sse my logic for why I think you'd fold AA here, highlight the text below...

Option 1: Play the AA.
• In terms of bet-size, you might as well go all-in. If the maniac will call at all, he’ll call an all-in just as much as a smaller bet—might as well get maximum chip-EV out of it.
• In all likelihood, you’ll wind up heads up against the maniac (the 2 small stacks would be idiots to get involved since they can only benefit from #2 stack going heads-up against chip leader).
• In terms of $EV, what can you expect? AA vs. random cards is only about 4:1. That means you will go bust about 20% of the time, and wind up with 3900 chips 80% of time (300 from the blinds, your 1800 allin and his call)
• With 3900 chips, you’re pretty well assured of finishing at least second—i.e. you get at least $60.
• If you win, the chip-leader will have lost 1800 and will be down to 4900.
• A reasonably good approximation of how often you’ll come in first is the size of your stack vs. that of the chip leader, i.e. 3900/(3900+4900)=44%. That means you’ll win the extra $40 about 44% of the time—an EV of $17.6
• Thus the overall EV of playing the AA is about $77.6 if you win (prob. 80%) and $0 if you bust (prob 20%). Total EV is $62.1
• Note that your EV from playing the AA is just barely bigger than $60—the payout for 2nd place.

Option 2: Sit out the hand
• Avoid playing any hand against Mr. Big Stack, but play a normally aggressive game against the two short stacks (e.g. steal blinds, etc.)
• You are very likely to hang in there longer than the two short stacks. Once there are only 2 players left, you are assured of finishing at least second.
• Question is, how many chips will you have left when they bust out? I would argue that your most likely chip count will still be 1800 (depending on the cards, it could be higher if you can win some from the 2 short stacks, or lower if you have to give up a few blinds. A priori, I would think 1800-your current count--is most likely).
• This would give you an 18% chance of coming in first—in which case you’ll make an extra $40 (an EV of $7.2).
• The total EV of sitting out is $67.2.

By my math, you have a higher EV from sitting out than from playing the AA.

A different way of looking at this is that if you double up, you increase your chance of finishing #1 from small to modest. Your probability of AA holding up is about 80%, and if they do it’s worth about (44%-18%)*$40, so the EV pickup from improving your chances of finishing first is $8.3.

You have to weigh that against the probability of busting out, which means giving up $67 (the virtually assured $60 plus the slim chance of finishing first) about 20% of the time—an EV give-up of $13.4. The net is a difference of $5.1 in favor of NOT playing the AA.

Increasing your chances of coming in #1 isn’t always the most important thing—it depends on how steeply the payout structure increases for the final places. <font color="white"> </font> <font color="white"> </font>

[JNash]

See math below for this 50/30/20 payout

[Pepsquad]

Do you play at PP Nash? What's your name?

[JNash]

I see that once again most people seem to focus on the wrong thing...It makes a HUGE difference in this situation whether you play AA vs. the chip-leader or vs. the shor stacks.

[pistol78]

It doesnt matter. If you dont play AA against the big stack then what do you play?

[Gramps]

[ QUOTE ]
The total EV of sitting out is $67.2.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're way, way, way, way overestimating your EV of sitting out. You're basically assuming you'll finish 2nd at worst...

...but by your strategy, you will fold every hand UTG, or every hand the big stack enters first (which any big stack in their right mind will do almost every hand to exploit this bubble situation) - and he's to your immediate right, so he's either in the BB or acting before you on every hand. You will often get chipped down significantly before getting in the money (meaning very few 1sts, a lot of 3rds (short stacks do make comebacks quite often), and you will finish 4th a percentage of the time playing this way as well)...

...and AA wins 85% of the time against a random hand...

It sounds like you're trying very hard to tweak your assumptions in favor of your desired conclusion. You can get away with that fine in the classroom, but when it comes to playing thousands of SNGs, those incorrect assumptions leading to -EV plays like this will come back to bite you in the arse for mucho $$...

...maybe there's a reason everyone is saying play AA here...

[hhboy77]

irieguy. i think there is a time that you could fold aa preflop in an sng, but it would have to be very extreme.

for example 4-handed, you pick up aa on the button and have 1 chip left. cutoff, who has 9799 chips moves all in on the two blinds who have 100 chips each and are all in.

clearly, this is a fold because the only place you are playing for is 2nd, at least until the other two bust out.

[ChrisV]

Your reasoning of fold EV is wrong because: (1) You don't take into account the chances of coming 3rd (or even 4th) (2) How is your stack still going to be 1800 chips when you're folding every hand for fear of tangling wth the big stack?

[stlip]

AA wins 85 percent of the time against a random hand -- you're closer to a 6-1 favorite than 4-1.

You didn't give any weight to the possibility of one short stack taking out the other and getting some chips from the maniac in the process and then pushing you down to 3rd.

What your statistical argument shows is that the final positions are so close to being set in concrete that no play you make with an AA -- no matter how dumb -- is going to have a huge statistical impact on the final outcome.

[The4thFilm]

LOL, him being a maniac makes AA ever MORE powerful.

[wjmooner]

Chip leader is a "maniac." I won't discuss the general lameness of another "should I fold AA" thread, but I did want to point out that if the Chip leader is splashing then the short stacks both have a great chance of doubling up off of him.

If the SB doubles up you are still at 1800 and he has 1400. Well, now it's basically a coinflip for 2nd.

Double up to 3600 and we can talk about being assured (or at least much more likely) of 2nd place.

Hmm, I wonder how you could double up to over 3k?

WJ

[Cleveland Guy]

This is wrong on many fronts.

for one, and it's been pointed out by others, by folding you are falsely assuring yourself of 2nd. I would say with under 2K chips second will happen maybe 50% of the time.

If the 2 short stacks go in against each other, the winner would be about equal to you in chips. Then he doubles up against the maniac, and your the short stack.

That plus - what if you have AQ, and the short stack doubles through you? now you might be out 4th.

Finally under the circumstances that you play AA and double up vs. the maniac - are you saying that you aren't better than him, and given close to equal stacks will only win the % of times compared to current stack sizes?

I would be very confident that with a 40/60 stack against a maniac heads up I would be able to win 60-65% of the time

[ThorGoT]

I think you might have been influenced by your results here, although we don't know how you got busted. AA is a very different hand from 99. 99 is a great hand to go in on if you need to steal the blinds, as if called by two overcards you are still a favorite and the chances of one of the remaining three players having an overpair (TT+) are pretty small. But it isn't such a good idea if you just want to stay alive, as it has a 45% chance of busting vs. two overcards (which the maniac could have). Now, if you fold 99, and the smallest stack folds, within the next hand or two he is going to be forced in and probably play against the best of the three other hands, and probably bust. And if he doesn't, there are still two relatively small stacks that you are twice the size of, and you can fold for a while and hope that the maniac busts one of them first.

Now, with AA, I'd go all in if I *knew* the maniac would call. If I didn't, I might raise to 600 and try to induce some more action.

Technically, btw, I think it is incorrect to say if you don't play AA *here* you won't play anything. Obviously, if positions were rearranged and the two small stacks had both gone all in and you were the small blind, it might well make sense to go in over the top of them with AA, as it's unlikely you'd get anything less than 3rd even if the big stack called. Being UTG is more perilous, because of the chance you get matched up evenly against the big stack.

[SossMan]

Fold AA preflop

God, has it been 3 weeks. time flies by.

[augie00]

THIS IS THE WORST THREAD IN HISTORY

[JNash]

Thanks for actually giving a thoughtful response (in contrast to many others...).

My main point was that tournament math is VERY different than ring-game math, and I wanted to show it with a concrete example. One can quibble over the precise probabilities (e.g. some posters correctly point out that saying you get to 2nd 100% of the time is too optimistic), but the key point is that in a ring-game the only challenge with AA is how to get as much out of it in EV terms as possible, since you have the best hand PF.
In a tourney, the value of AA is vastly different depending on how big your stack is, who your opponent is, how large the blinds are, how many players are left, how steep the payout gradient is, etc. etc.

The biggest thing I learned from doing the math is that in SNG the difference between 1st &amp; 2nd is 20% payout (50% VS 30%), and the difference between 2nd &amp; 4th is 30%. In thinking about a play near the bubble, it is simply incorrect to repeat the matra of "gotta go for 1st" That may be true in big tourneys where the payouts for 1st/2nd are proportionately so much bigger. In SNG's, putting yourself unnecessarily at risk of blowing 2nd just to improve your chances of getting 1st is questionable and depends on all the factors above.

BTW, the hand I busted out in was 99 vs KQo. In hindsight, I now believe the best play was to come in for 600 as you suggest. You still have a pretty good chance of stealing the blind, but you don't risk the doomsday scenario of being out right away.

[The4thFilm]

Please stick to play money.

[gergery]

If you fold here you are a weak player and it’s the worst advice ever. This example is not even close to being a good fold.

Have you thought about the fact that by focusing on this ridiculous question of folding AA preflop you are missing an opportunity to plug other, much larger holes in your game? (and we all have holes in our game)

--Greg

[poboy]

This must be a joke and if it's not than you should quit playing poker. If this is any example of your typical thought process during a hand, you must be losing money by the fistful.

[DCIAce]

[ QUOTE ]
It's never, ever correct to fold Aces preflop in a SNG no matter what conditions you can imagine (assuming traditional pay-outs).

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree.

Let's say you lost the last hand you played, and are down to T50 on the button. Blinds are 250/500, Stacks are t200 (SB), T50 (BB), and T7700.. Big stack calls first in. There's no way that calling with anything here is correct.

The only real situations where folding AA is correct is when you have no real hope of winning, despite the outcome of the hand, with a chance to move up in $ by folding, and in Satellites or other events with strange payout structures.

Folding in this situation is horrible.

[KenProspero]

JNash:

I don't mean this as a criticism, but let me ask you this as a serious question. Why are you rehashing this question?

Having read several AA fold threads here, I think the consensus of the forum is that except in an unusual situation where you risk busting out, and where winning the hand doesn't materially help you, Folding AA pre-flop is never right.

Let's put all the math and poker logic aside. You've asked this question and been given advice. You've asked a second time and been given the same advice. (Hey, I went down the same path as you and was given the same advice you were given.)

Now, you're free to take this advice or ignore it. If, in fact, you're right, and everyone else is wrong, you're making a winning play. If everyone else is right, you're making a losing play. Either way, they're your cards to play, and you should play them as you best think will improve your bankroll. However, I don't think you'll ever convince the people here that folding AA pre-flop is a good move (except in the limited circumstance described above).

My experience (after a similar AA criticism) was to read some more, and try to apply the advice here. In my case, I needed to become more aggressive overall. Again, I figured either it would work, or it wouldn't. My experience -- I'm busting out of more games earlier (but hey, 10th pays the same as 4th) However, I'm doing much better in the games where I don't bust out early Overall my 'in the money' percentages and 'average profit' have increased (so maybe the people here do know a thing or two about poker).

[La Brujita]

[ QUOTE ]
I folded AA preflop in a cash game once. Stick to your guns!

[/ QUOTE ]

Just out of curiosity when did you fold'em in a cash game?

[ChrisV]

Raising to 600 with 99 in that situation is awful. As the big stack I will reraise allin with any two cards 100% of the time.

There's no way you should fold AA here (or KK) but anything worse than that and you have a case. I would fold the nines.

[KenProspero]

I saw worse:

In a cash game I saw someone fold JJJJ (on the board) with an Ace kicker.

It was his first time playing, He had A2 (or said so) and said he didn't know that you didn't go to the second hole card in case of a tie (even though it would mean playing 6 cards).

you had to feel sorry for him, folding the nuts (though it would have been a 3-way split pot)

[SmileyEH]

I put the other guy on 77 and knew he would draw out on me. This is what I call 4th level thinking.

-SmileyEH

[Jedi Flopper]

[ QUOTE ]
It's never, ever correct to fold Aces preflop in a SNG no matter what conditions you can imagine (assuming traditional pay-outs).

I promise.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

4 people left you have 100 in chips. Big stack has 5K the other two have 2450 each. All of them move in and it comes to you. you still want to play your AA?

[rachelwxm]

Well, I agree this is very close to fold AA but still not according to ICM.
You folding equity 28.9
You all in and double up on bb, equity 35.6
So you need to be 4.3:1 favorate in order to break even.
And AA is 5.8:1 against random hands, similar against top 15%.

The worst case if bb has pair or 98s etc, but if your assumption is that he would call with anytwo, I think it's a +ev push here. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[Vanquish]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you lost the last hand you played, and are down to T50 on the button. Blinds are 250/500, Stacks are t200 (SB), T50 (BB), and T7700.. Big stack calls first in. There's no way that calling with anything here is correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

To me, this statement doesn't make much sense. Okay, sure, you're pretty much toast, but you don't provide any context. I assume this is one of those "you should fold everything when you're down to an insignificant amount of chips and just hope enough people knock each other out before I get to the blinds again" theories. I don't buy into that.

If you're going to make any sort of attempt to mount a comeback, which is what I would do, then your chances of doing it are wholly dependent on how good the cards dealt to you are. You have no folding equity by being the first one into the pot. With the blinds that high, your opponents have the odds to call with anything, and you'll be facing at least two opponents in the blinds. Here at least you have 1+ active players who will hopefully narrow the field for you.

I would call every time in this situation with AA. And the bottom line is you are still the favorite versus everyone who gets involved in the pot. You may not be 50% or more to win, but you are still more likely than anyone else to take down your share of the pot.

[Vanquish]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
It's never, ever correct to fold Aces preflop in a SNG no matter what conditions you can imagine (assuming traditional pay-outs).

I promise.

Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ] 4 people left you have 100 in chips. Big stack has 5K the other two have 2450 each. All of them move in and it comes to you. you still want to play your AA?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I can editorialize on Irieguy's comment (and correct me if I'm wrong Irieguy), I think what he means is that playing AA at least to the flop is never ever -chipEV. It's entirely possible, though unlikely, that folding AA is a +$EV move, as in the situation you describe.

[DCIAce]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Let's say you lost the last hand you played, and are down to T50 on the button. Blinds are 250/500, Stacks are t200 (SB), T50 (BB), and T7700.. Big stack calls first in. There's no way that calling with anything here is correct.

[/ QUOTE ]

To me, this statement doesn't make much sense. Okay, sure, you're pretty much toast, but you don't provide any context. I assume this is one of those "you should fold everything when you're down to an insignificant amount of chips and just hope enough people knock each other out before I get to the blinds again" theories. I don't buy into that.

If you're going to make any sort of attempt to mount a comeback, which is what I would do, then your chances of doing it are wholly dependent on how good the cards dealt to you are. You have no folding equity by being the first one into the pot. With the blinds that high, your opponents have the odds to call with anything, and you'll be facing at least two opponents in the blinds. Here at least you have 1+ active players who will hopefully narrow the field for you.

I would call every time in this situation with AA. And the bottom line is you are still the favorite versus everyone who gets involved in the pot. You may not be 50% or more to win, but you are still more likely than anyone else to take down your share of the pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't think there was any possible argument for calling there. Change it up, you have 1 chip, other stacks are the same.. do you still call? As it is, on hand #1, two people will have a chance of being knocked out (both blinds are all-in), and on hand#2, if they both survive, the SB will be all-in, even if he tripled up on the previous hand.

[JNash]

Hi Rachel

Thanks for seeing this as a math problem rather than a question of religious faith /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

Please elaborate...What is ICM? How did you compute the various equities?

[rachelwxm]

Indenpendent chip model.
http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/ICM.html
there is tons of good stuff regarding this in old posts for more infomation. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Most of the posters know all the math, they just don't bother to explain them especially it's a very old question. Check archive more. /images/graemlins/cool.gif