How to spot sets [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

HoldingFolding

11-03-2004, 10:11 PM

Overplayed first hand! With the reraise I put him on a high pair AA-JJ, but thought AA unlikely when one flopped. But my question is, does anyone have any guidelines to spotting sets? I've been on the giving end a few times too and opponents with TPGK or 2 pairs rarely give up with non-scarey flops.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t15 (10 handed)

MP1 (t800)
MP2 (t800)
MP3 (t800)
CO (t800)
Hero (t800)
SB (t800)
BB (t800)
UTG (t800)
UTG+1 (t800)
UTG+2 (t800)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 folds, MP1 calls t15, MP2 calls t15, MP3 folds, CO folds, Hero raises to t45, SB folds, BB raises to t75, MP1 calls t60, MP2 folds, Hero calls t30.

Flop: (t250) 5/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets t250, BB folds, MP1 calls t250.

Turn: (t750) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero bets t475 (All-In), MP1 calls t475 (All-In).

River: (t1700) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t1700

Results in white below: 
MP1 has 5h 5s (three of a kind, fives).
Hero has Kh Ac (one pair, aces).
Outcome: MP1 wins t1700.

lorinda

11-03-2004, 10:13 PM

With an Ace on board in the lower limits, spotting a set is near impossible.

If you get unwarranted action on a very non-scary board with no ace or king, then the alarm bells should start ringing.

Lori

ethan

11-04-2004, 01:27 AM

[ QUOTE ]
But my question is, does anyone have any guidelines to spotting sets?

[/ QUOTE ]

My approach to spotting sets is to watch all my chips slide towards the other guy at the end of the hand. Works every time /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Seriously, though...there are too many hands he can have in this betting pattern, especially early in a low-buyin. tournament. Not all that much you could (or should) have done differently here.

Phill S

11-04-2004, 11:23 AM

the stacks in a SnG are never deap enough, nor the game ever long enough that you can worry about sets.

if your beat, so what, start another. there arent many times i pass AK preflop, and there are fewer times i pass it on the flop when it hits. sometimes you gotta take the rub. the pendulum swings both ways remember.

occasionally you can get saved by holding a vulnerable enough hand that you can fold, but it doesnt happen too often. by passing on most hands in the early stages you by definition pass over the biggest risk area of running into a set on the flop so it shouldnt happen to you too much.

if i can leave you remembering one piece of advice, its this. if you worry too much about sets youll worry about them too often. if you see monsters in every wardrobe youll get start to get scared of the dark. being fearless is one of the skills of a great tourney player, especially a great SnG player.

Phill

jakethebake

11-04-2004, 11:43 AM

[ QUOTE ]
My approach to spotting sets is to watch all my chips slide towards the other guy at the end of the hand. Works every time /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
That's how I spot 'em too. Unfortunately.

wjmooner

11-04-2004, 11:45 AM

The only time I thought I spotted a set, and I didn't have the discipline to lay down the hand, was early on in a SnG on Stars.

I had doubled up to 3000 in chips and my opponent had 2200. I was in the BB with QT and the flop came QT5 rainbow. I checked, guy in EP bet 60, SB called, I raised to abt 350. EP folded and SB raised to 1000.

Very unscary board, no ace, no king, I showed strength with a checkraise, and we both had lots of chips. He is basically pot committing himself against the chipleader.

Even with two pair he probably just calls, except for maybe top two, which splits with me. What hand could he have had except a set?

I pushed anyway and was shown a set of Tens.

So, basically, a set would be almost impossible to read in a Party SnG because you don't have deep enough stacks for these reads.

WJ

TheDrone

11-04-2004, 03:59 PM

Not specific to spotting sets, but I do think this hand should have been played differently. Don't price in small pairs with a weak preflop raise after two limpers. 100 is the minimum I raise here.

Also, there is no reason to bet the pot on this rainbow flop when you likely have the best hand. 1/2 the pot is enough to charge the 5-outers, and it's even better if an Ax 3-outer calls rather than folds. Furthermore, I would argue that a hand that beats you is more likely to raise a 1/2 pot bet than a pot-sized bet. A raise *might* give you enough information to lay this down, otherwise you are going to the felt.

SossMan

11-04-2004, 06:35 PM

FWIW, on hand 1 of the tourney, I'm raising more the first time after 2 limpers, and certainly pushing after the BB reraise. There are simply too many people who will call you with worse aces to not play it like that.

tigerite

11-04-2004, 08:06 PM

Sometimes people with sets think they are the holy nuts though, too.. like a royal flush or something, and slowplay them too much. For instance..

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t30 (7 handed)

saw flop|saw showdown

MP2 (t985)
Hero (t695)
Button (t1315)
SB (t1700)
BB (t2255)
UTG (t2420)
MP1 (t630)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG raises to t60, MP1 calls t60, MP2 folds, Hero calls t60, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds.

Flop: (t225) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t225) K/images/graemlins/heart.gif (3 players)
UTG bets t75, MP1 raises to t300, Hero raises to t635 (All-In), UTG calls t560, MP1 calls t270 (All-In).

River: (t2065) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players, 2 all-in)

Final Pot: t2065
Main Pot: t1935 (t1935), between Hero, UTG and MP1. > Pot won by Hero (t1935).
Pot 2: t130 (t130), between Hero and UTG. > Pot won by Hero (t130).

Results in white below: 
UTG has Tc Td (three of a kind, tens).
MP1 has 2h 2s (three of a kind, twos).
Hero has Jc Qc (straight, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins t2065. 

Yeah, I know, the preflop call may have been a little loose, but at 15/30 blinds I figured it was worth it.