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12-08-2001, 05:01 AM
Hello again all,


Here is a hand I played in a 1-5 stud game the other evening. I was wondering what other posters on this forum would do in this situation.


Basically 3 major contendors to the pot, I will leave out all unimportant info.


3c brings it in for a dollar. 2 Limpers to Qs who makes it 5 ( he has very loose raising standards ). I look down and have (9d9h)Ah, I re-raise to 10. A Ks cold calls the 10 and the other limpers fold leaving us three handed.


4th brings me a 3rd 9. Both other opponents seem to catch non threating cards. I am high with my A on fourth and fifth and bet $5 both times and get called by both.


6th street is where it gets interesting. All three of us pair our doorcards. I get the Ac giving me 9's full. My AA is high on board ( against KK and QQ ). I bet $5. KK raise to $10 and QQ re-raise to $15.


What would you do here ( and river play )?

Results to follow later,


CJ

12-08-2001, 01:54 PM
Dear CJ,


What an excellent question.


It has been said, that it takes an excellent player to have the confidence to throw away a made full house.


One time I was sitting next to the excellent stud player Bill Monagram. We had become good friends through the years and we usualy discussed Stud stratagy after our sessions.


I remember one time when Bill was confronted with this same identical situation, and he mucked his hand when confronted with the doulbe raise.


As he mucked his cards, since I was out of the hand, he purposely let me see his hole cards confirming to me that he was mucking a made small full house. He knew full well that we would be analizing the hand in detail later.


When the other two hands were shown down at the river his opponents both had trips.


Which didn't bother Bill in the least. His attitude was that, "all of our poker sessions are nothing more than one life time long sesion, and when you get a million or so dollars ahead, why worry about 10 chips."


"What ever color the chips happen to be,our only concern is making the right play. The chips will take care of themself's."


At that stage in my career I wouldn't have made the play that he did.


Let's see how I would play the same hand in this case.


Well the main questions we have to answer are: 1. What are the probabilities that you were originaly against Kings and Queens?


2. And if you were against two big pair, now that they have paired their door cards, what are the probabilities that they either all ready have, or shall have bigger full houses than your's by the river.


3. And the final questions are: What will your probable calling odds be by the end of sixth street.


4. And what will be your probable anticipated odds be at the river, if you call all sixth street bets?


5. And how have the previous actions of your opponents affected your present odds?


Well on third street your loose Queen raised into 2 overcards, and then you reraised with your Ace and yet the King still called the double raise, BUT he didn't reraise.


(Interesting to say the least) If he had had Kings he should have reraised you, to knock out the Queens. If he was a solid player that is. Because that move, if sucessful, would have have significantly boosted his probable win rate.


Warning to Doc: Remember not to over read your oponents. Fortunatly not every player thinks the way that you do. Thank God.


Well the first question is, if they both started with big pairs, and you knew that both pairs were going to trip up, what would the probability be that one of them would fill by the river?


Well if their kickers were totaly live they each would have had a 62% chance of filling.(Remember we modified their probabilities by stipulating that each original pair would always trip up.)


And if each original opponents pair had, had 2 dead kicker cards their fill rate would still have been 58% a piece.


The player's sixth street action make it look as if the second raiser was already full. (if he understands the game) He should have read at least one of you two for an overset, to his probable Queens full.


And finaly what will it cost you to call in relationship to the pot. Well it will cost $10 more dollars now, and possibly $5 dollars more on sixth street if the king reraises.


(Which I wouldn't do if my Kings were full since in this case I had you behind me with the Aces, as either a possible reraiser or over caller. So I would profit either way by not reraising )


If you call this bet there will be approx $105 dollars in the pot.


(CJ. I'm sure it's frustrating to have to listen to all these calculation, but remember I have to listen to myself go through them 30 times a day while you only have to listen to me once a day. And besides you have 3 minutes to review while I only have 5 seconds when I am at my "office".)


So in the end you will have approximatly 11 to 1 pot odds for a call against one fairly predictable opponent(who made an odd third steet call "not raise") and one non predictable opponent.


So my answer would be to call this bet, but to drop the hand, if the King puts in a third bet.

(My call is rationalized because of a degree of uncertanty about both of my opponents hands, and the fact that some players are overly aggressive with trips.)


Having called the sixth street bet, had I not dropped to a reraise, I would call a single bet on the river, but not a double bet.


Thank you CJ, for sharing this interesting hand with us.I realy look forward to hearing how our other forum members would play this hand.


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ


PS Your Casino realy have some excellent $1 dolar $5 dollar games, they play more like a $6-$12dollar games.

12-08-2001, 03:54 PM
In 1-5 vs loose players I'd probably just grit my teeth and call them down. There are players I'd fold against, however, because I know they wouldn't raise unless they thought they could beat three aces, and it doesn't look like they have a straight or flush.


TRLS

12-08-2001, 05:10 PM
This is a classic. It happens about once a year in low limit stud. The situation really depends on only 1 thing --your evaluation of the players. Throw all the math out the window here--assuming all the cards are live. This is a simple case of evaluating th eplayer. This, my friend, is old Wild West poker.


The conceiled pair is nice. The AK (with AA,KK could figure to be higher than your AA,99. I would worry about the QQ being full, but I have seen trips be very agressive in last position. I would have to call and pay off if they have boats.

12-08-2001, 05:52 PM
Are your cards live? There are still 3 cards left in the deck (2 Aces, and the case 9) that almost certainly give you the pot.


As the pot is already pretty big, I would be inclined to cap it on 6th, representing Aces full, and put those players to a decision. At very least this will probably allow you to play for one bet only on the river, as they can hardly raise you when you have represented Aces full.

12-08-2001, 07:13 PM
Mr. Peterson asked the key question. Or at least approached it. Live cards are an imporant key. Did someone fold a K, a Q, an A? Were any of their OTHER up cards compromised by early folded cards? I would fold this hand without knowing the answer to these questions against some opponents and call it down or cap it, again without knowing the answers, against others. However, knowing the answers would help.


--

Will in New Haven

12-08-2001, 07:18 PM
Very interesting hand, folding here it's very hard.


Every decent poker player even a drunk one could read you hold minimum three ACes when u paired your doorcard. KIng doorcard I think had a quads slowplaying a rolled trips of kings on 3rd(fantasious?), minimum full of kings of sure.


Beside the Queen doorcard possessor (he cannot have quads as it's unlikely he started rolled since an early pos. raise in a 1-5 table doesn't have much sense with zero money in the pot) you are sure beaten by king doorcard and queens possessor could hit a full higher than your on the river.


Here, I say you had to fold but in that spot I NEVER NEVER NEVER have folded your full. (LOl, but I folded kings quads in a no-limit draw 32 cards game...see a post below:)


I believe in that spot u would have won 1 time over 100. (I wait the results...)


Marco

12-08-2001, 10:53 PM
I have been beaten bu quads in this type of hand. If it happens, God bless the winner. I havr to call. I would not cap it.

12-09-2001, 03:39 AM
Well thanks for all the responses..


First to answer a few questions raised in a few posts, No A,K or Q were mucked or seen in anyone else's hand other than what was stated. Also none of us three appeared to have any potential straight and/or flush draws.


Well I did Exactly as Mr. Peterson stated. I capped off the betting on 6th representing Aces full.


On the river I led out again expecting it to be a 1 bet river. Well the KK raised again and the QQ re-raised again.


After much hesitation, I mucked ( painfully ) and the KK re-raised again and the QQ called.


KK showed down three kings and the QQ showed down three queens. So I mucked the winner.


This one bugged me all day. ( especially after the QQ guy nagged me with this quote " I knew I had you beat at least! " Him not figuring me for making a big laydown. I didn't give him the satisfaction of telling him what a goofball he was )


I knew the KK gentleman had trip Kings, but for the life of me when he reraised the river I figured he had to be full, so I mucked. The QQ guy, well he was just a pinhead who quickly discarded $500 in a 1-5 game.


I still think I played the hand fine, although the pot odds on the river justified the so called 'crying call' even though it more than likely would have cost $15 more instead of $10. I mean if I am figuring this out correctly there was a $157 in the pot when the action got back to me for $10 more.


$4 antes

$1 forced low

$2 early limpers who folded to raise

$30 on third from main three

$15 on fourth from main three

$15 on fifth from main three

$60 on sixth from main three

That is $127 before the action on the river. So yup it was $157 when the action got back to me ( actually $153 if you count rake )


Over 15-1 pot odds. Actually the more I think about this my mistake was even graver than I thought. Yup, I made a doosie here.


Anywho,


Yes, as You can see DocAZ the 1-5 games out here in Connecticut are great, great, great. I like the 50 cent ante structure with the game. I have repeatedly said that I can achieve the same win rate in this game as our 5-10 game with a much lower deviation.


Well thanks to everyone who responded. Hopefully I wont make any doosies in Vegas this week. ( I leave on Wednesday )


Take Care to all,

Later,

CJ

12-09-2001, 04:48 AM
Well to be fair against sane opponents i don't think you made a big error at all. That is unless the Kings guy was a real expert and figured you for a small full but his raising could knock you out so he could play against the guy he was "sure" had only trip Queens.


But the more likely scenario is that they were both idiots who take nothing but the nominal value of a hand into account never even considering the situation context. Always consider how aware your opponents are when making a play or a laydown. Some opponents play so poorly that you should never fold a strong hand when the show strength, they simply don't know where they stand.

12-09-2001, 06:56 AM
Dear CJ,


I started my first post with the statement, "It takes an excellent player to be confident enough in his game, be able to lay down a made full house"


What do I think I think about your lay down. "I think that I am proud of you."


You are second guessing your move now. Trust me I have only known 3 players that were good enough to be able to lay down made houses. (Four now)


And the other three were superb players, as you are destined to be.


I have read your hand analyses before, and you have an excellent grasp of the game.


One of your problems, may be that you are playing in games significantly below your skill level.


But you have all the time in the world to move up. When you do, I know that the game will get easier for you, just as it did for me. Because it is going to be easier for you to read your opponents, and consequently they will become more predictable.


Right now you are able to play at a level that you can beat,and which doesn't have a rake that is too sever. And that is fine.


I usualy play in an excellent stud game, and because we all respect each other, and because the dealers know that we are the A game, the dealers often let us get away with some things that they wouldn't allow players at other tables to do.


Yesterday I was playing with an excellent player named Wayne. I was out of the hand and Wayne had jammed the pot way up,while making and then after filling his fifth street treetop straight.


Then on sixth street he got sandwitched between 2 probable made flushes, which were held by players that both Wayne and I could easily read.


When the second raise came at him, he anounced that he was mucking his hand. And then he slid his hand face down across the table to me, and said "Take a look at that hand Doc. And tell me what you think"


As I said the dealers let us get away with some actions that they wouldn't allow other tables to do, because they know that none of us would ever violate the integrity of the game.


After looking at his mucked tree top straight. I said "I think that I am proud of you, buddy."


My admonishion to you is the same "I am proud of you buddy"


TJ Clothier use to always say "If I have an advantage over my opponents (he happens to have a lot of advantages) it's that I have always been abel to make the big lay downs."


Your confidence in your skills cost you a pot this time. But in the future it is going to allow you to save thousands of dollars, by not making incorrect long calls, that most of your opponents never are going to be able to do.


Your friend,


Doc AZ

12-09-2001, 11:56 AM
In a 1-5 game I would not even begin to think about mucking. The players aginst CJ could easily just have trips just as happened to Bill. You should almost never make a big laydown at 1-5 for the simple reason that your opponents are just so unaware that you cannot put them on a hand.


Pat

12-09-2001, 12:01 PM
I hope you did not fold. I would reraise here evry time at 1-5. At 1-5 i would never make such a laydown. You cannot make the assumption that your opponents have any idea whatsoever that they are beaten here. These players do not think like you do. If you got reraised again then you have something to worry about. But since you did not yet have the chance to raise (i havent read the results so maybe you did reraise and if you did you can ignore this) there is no reason that they would think you have a big enough hand to beat them. Once you come over the top and they still show strength then you can be worried. Until then you should just assume that you have the best.


Hope you won it.


Pat hand.

12-09-2001, 12:05 PM
You may be correct that making big laydowns is teh sign of an excellent player. However stud is not a game, in my opinion, that you should be looking to make big laydowns. Holdem is different, and it may be a significant part of cloutier's profit, especially because he plays big bet poker. But at stud I dont think that you can make big laydowns at higher limits and win as much as you should.


Pat

12-09-2001, 02:38 PM
What a great lesson, eh? The knowledge of the player is important. But another consideration might be:


"What if I call this hand 10 times. Will I show a profit? How many times must I win the hand to show a profit?"


Here it becomes a case of investment in the later stages to profit in the pot. My guess is 1-2 wins in 1-15 is OK. Gott'a call those big ones.

12-09-2001, 06:53 PM
Hello,CJ,

FOLD! Both of your opponents have at least trips. The combined probability of one already having a higher boat or obtaining a higher house is too great for you to continue with this hand. It will cost you at least an additional 20 to

see the river.


Sitting Bull

12-09-2001, 07:07 PM
Hello,Cj,

Once you decided to play on 6th, you must call all the way. Your decision to play or not to play 7th St. was dependent on whether to continue or fold on 6th. Even if both of your opponents had trips on 6th and Not boats,it would have still been a fold on 6th.


Sitting Bull

12-09-2001, 07:16 PM
Hello,Doc,

I think the K's was afraid that CJ had A's when he raised. If CJ had A's, would it be correct for the live K's to re-raise semi-dead A's?


Sitting Bull

12-09-2001, 07:22 PM
/images/smile.gif


Such a river action dictates just 2 things:


1) they were colluded (in a bad fashion...)


2) they were just released from a psychiatrics hospital with no hope to return sane of mind.


WE all hope to meet them in a game.


Marco

12-09-2001, 10:59 PM
Well i couldn't agree with me more on that one.

12-11-2001, 01:23 AM
Dear Bull,


Your question was whether it would have been correct for the kings to have reraised if the Ace had been semidead . And the answer is yes it would,, As a matter of fact, the Kings should be even more inclined to reraise the Ace if there had been another Ace out.


If the Queen had raised, and then the Ace reraised, and then the Kings reraised the Ace, if the Queens player was solid he would almost always drop the hand. Because Queens in a three way pot with Aces and Kings is a miserable position to be in.


Although it would have cost the Kings an extra small bet, it would have significantly boosted the probability of the Kings winning the hand ,which in the long run would have paid for the raise several times over.


And if it had been (as it was in this case) that the raising Ace didn't have Aces, but was only representing them, then the Kings would have boosted himself into a significant lead.


One of the ways that the Ace hand might have won was by tripping up. (which would have occurred 18% of the time) The dead Ace would have decreased the probability of the Aces tripping to 11%. And if the player had only had one Ace it would have had a proportional decrease in the probability of his making aces up.


As Pat pointed out in his post one of the problems in the 1-5 game is that it's harder to manipulate the table because your opponents often don't know how weak their hand might be.


Interestingly when you are playing against weak and excellent players the correct way to play is often to just play your hand.


I must adnit that I haven't played 1/5 or 1/4 for so long that I am not as good at it as I use to be. From having read some of your excellent hand analyses I am sure that it is sometimes frustrating for you to try to interpret your opponents moves, since many of them are playing the game with a much simpler strategy.


Your friend


Doc.

12-11-2001, 01:28 AM

12-11-2001, 01:59 AM
Dear Pat,

You raise an interesting point. There are so many different levels of stud and the game is so different at the each levels.


I some times think of a low limit stud as being like a cavalry charge, while a high limit game is often reminds me more of a sumo wrestling match.


There are some players that are so easy to read that against them it would almost be criminal to make the long call.


And there are other players that try as I might the only way I can be certain of their hands is to call their hands on the river.


I try to reach a goal of winning 70% of the hands that I call on the river. But in games that have players that I don't know my percentage often drops.


Limit stud is a game that was designed to have a show down at the river, but at the same time when you know you are beaten you are beaten.


That's what makes our game so fascinating. Thank you for sharing your opinion.


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ

12-11-2001, 02:39 AM
Dear Lynn,


I think that you are exactly right.


An interesting thing happened that taught me about the difference in our game at different limits.


It had been quite a while since I had played 1/5 or 1/4 Stud. Some years ago I use to play it frequently, and could beat the game with some regularity.


Then about a month ago I thought, "You know you often sit and wait for a half or full hour to get into your game. Why don't you just sit in on a 1/4 game? And if you only make $10 or $20 dollars it $10 or $20 bucks you wouldn't have.


I was facinated in that when I sat down to play for the life of me I couldn't remeber how I use to play that level.


And not only that, but when I played the way that now came "natural" to me, I'd ended up loosing $50 dollars. I did that, and lost for four days in a row. Then finaly I got a handle on the game. After I learned that my tight agressive style was getting me in more trouble than it was worth.


Thank you for sharing your oppinion.


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ

12-11-2001, 05:42 AM