Is this a normal up/downswing over 30 plus days?

[gabuk]

Hi all,

Well, I am experiencing my biggest upswing/downswing in my fledgling poker career.

Background...deposted 50 BBs on Oct. 1st. By Oct. 28th, was up 425 BBs. I had a 55% winning session rate so I wasn't completely dominating.

I played roughly 8000 hands with a V$IP of 17%, PFR of 7.12 and a WSD of 54%. I felt like I was playing the best poker of my life. I took two days for work reasons and didn't play a hand until Saturday the 30th.

Now come Saturday, October 30th to present time. I have dropped 125 BBs and going thru the "can't hit flush, straight, river, set" syndrome. It is in full effect. I made the super newbie mistake of moving up a level and lost 30 BBs in one session. This is after I strictly played one level for 8500 hands. Biggest mistake yet.

Is it normal to win so much then lose 30% so quickly? I went over PokerTracker data and realized I started chasing AK/AQ more than often during the losing streak and was trying to bluff/call down with medium pocket pairs. I believe at least half of the 125 BBs was due to dump play on my behalf.

Is one remedy to tighten up to only premium hands and really focus on position with the semi-premium hands. For example, I was always raising AQo, AJo in early position and missing/calling an unraised flop and folding the turn if unimproved. I was also calling pre-flop raises (non-3 bet) with 22-66 if I had already limped in.

I guess I am starting to second guess my play since no matter what I do, I am "losing."

I will post some hands tonight/tomorrow for tips as well.

Thanks for any helpful advice.
Gabuk

[huxbux]

[ QUOTE ]


I had a 55% winning session rate so I wasn't completely dominating.



[/ QUOTE ]

Winning session % mean absolutely nothing. I could play on three unprofitable tables, lose 5BB on each. But while playing on one profitable table, I could win 50BB.

Variance is normal and to be expected. Part of the upswing could be attributed to playing ability and some to luck. Part of your downswing could be attributed to changes in your playing ability and some to luck. It's difficult to say exactly how much without knowing how you've played.

[Alobar]

want some really good advice? Quit stressing about your win rate. Worry more about playing good poker. Everything else will take care of its self when you do that.

[gabuk]

Thanks Alobar and Huxbux.

The funny thing was when I was winning, I didn't care about half of my stats and only reviewed bad hands so I wouldn't make the same mistake twice. The second I started losing, I got hyper critical about every single decision, stats and over analyzed everything.

Tonight, I will concentrate on poker and nothing. No multi-tabling, no TV shows, just good old-fashioned concentration.

Thanks again.

[mikeyKay]

i dont see a problem calling a PFR after you have already limped in...but if you realize that you cant get in cheap with these small pocket pairs, you have to start folding them. just like everyone else said, downswings happen, take a look at how you are playing, and not so much how much you are winning. also, play with confidence, being scared to bet or raise with good hands is a big problem. i only say this because it is a problem i have when i am running bad, in which case i usually take a break and put myself back together

-mike

[helpmeout]

great advice

[spamuell]

Running well is not only flopping pairs and sets and hitting draws on a higher than average basis. It's also that your opponents have the lower end of their hands on a higher than average basis. This can lead to some very misguided play.

For example, you limp with 55 and you see a flop, four way of K93. You check-raise the flop, bet the turn and river blanks, get called in one spot on the river by someone with AJo.

This can lead to you being very aggressive in future hands when your implied odds suck and it's unlikely you have the best of it. Suddenly, you find yourself losing a lot more than you would have given the same cards if you had not run good. Running good can also lead to a lot more chasing and generally being very aggressive with draws, even weak ones, as you feel like you are always going to hit and win.

Post some hands, that's by far the best way to identify leaks.