Opponent Pairs Door Card in 7 Stud...Always Muck?

A simple hand from my local 10-20 stud game ($1 ante, no bring-in, high card checks or bets). I open for $10 with an ace up (ace in the hole). A 7 calls, as does a 10. 4th street...I catch a brick, 7 pairs his door, ten catches crap. The 7's bet $20 and I fold my aces. After the hand my cards were accidentally flipped up by the wind (yes, we were playing outside...long story lol) and I was berated for folding my hand. Basically, I make this fold virtually every time my opponent pairs their door when I just have one pair b/c I may be drawing to one out (esp. when he called a bet on 3rd). Turns out my opponent had pocket 4's for a dinky two pair that I could have drawn out on. I think my play is right, but I am aware that doing anything automatically is usually bad poker. Is this player dependent or should you generally always make this fold (as I do)?


Jeff

Jeff,


One of the most important things that you can learn in 7CS is a healthy respect for paired door cards. Now, if you happen to know from the play of the hand that a guy can't have trips (or is at least very unlikely to), you can continue. I assume you know this opponent. Given that he will call a first-round bet with a pair of fours, it seems likely that he would call with a pair of sevens as well. When he hits his door card, there is a very good chance that he has trips. Even if he doesn't have trips, he probably has something pretty good, like two pair or a pair with some kind of draw. You'd want to continue if you knew that he had the two little pair, but you're still an underdog. And you're not much of a favorite against a pair and a three flush. You're either a little ahead, a little behind, or way behind, and you don't know which. Wait for a better gambling opportunity.


And be careful when you're making laydowns like this! In my home game days, I lived in constant fear that my opponents would find out that I frequently folded big pairs (not Aces) in seven card high-low--a hand that most of them would raise with. Make sure they get mixed in with the muck.

I hope my math is right. I'm really tired tonight.


When an opponent pairs a door card, it's more likely that he has trips than two pair. But it's more likely still that he has neither, especially if he didn't raise on 3rd.


Let's say it's 6-handed, so you've seen 11 cards so far (6 door cards + your 2 hole cards, + 3 cards on 4th). That leaves 41 unseen cards, of which two are 7s. There are 2 x 39 = 78 ways your opponent could have one 7 in the hole, plus 1 way to have two sevens, for a total of 79.


Let's assume that your aces and your opponent's sevens are the only paired or duplicated cards you've seen so far, that the other 7 exposed cards are from different ranks. That leaves 1 pair of aces, 7 x 3 = 21 pairs of those other ranks, and 4 x 6 = 24 pairs of ranks you haven't seen yet. That's a total of only 46 pairs your opponent could have in the hole.


The ratio of trips to two pairs is therefore at best around 79:46 = 1.7:1.


It's probably worse than that because you can usually count on your opponent to have raised with a big pair in the hole. If you can safely rule out aces, kings, and queens, the ratio is no better than 79:39 = 2:1. And it's worse still if your opponent would fold the very smallest pairs, as some players will.


Of course there's the possibility that your opponent didn't have any pair to start. He might have been calling on 3rd with a 3-straight or 3-flush. There could be as many as 274 3-flushes he could call with, 180 3-straights, and 12 straight flushes. He might not call with all of these hands, especially in a moderate ante game. But it's still potentially a lot of hands he could have, and it's more than the total number of pair hands. And bad players will often call with other junk, such as (KQ)7 or (T8)7, which adds a bunch more non-pair hands to the mix.


If he had raised you on 3rd, then you have a much easier fold. But since he didn't raise on 3rd, and he made the double bet on 4th, you can't automatically put him on trips or even two pair. It could be a semibluff with something like a 3-flush and the pair, or it could even be a pure bluff with little but the open sevens. And even if he has two pair, your aces give you a good chance to outdraw him. When you add up all the non-pair hands he could have started with, plus all the hands where he started with a pair other than sevens, that's more than enough to compensate for the times when he started with two sevesn.


So in this case, you should often reraise, planning to call if he 4-bets, and then playing the hand from there according to how it develops. A lot depends on what you know about the player, of course, but usually this is not a situation where you should give up easily. If you do, you will get pushed off your good hands every time opponents pair up a door card. You may lose this particular hand by hanging tough but it may save you money down the road if it makes them think twice before taking a cheap shot at you on 4th.


TRLS

There are only 66 flushes, 3 straight flushes, and 45 straights. I knew those numbers sounded way too high.


I'm going to bed now.


TRLS

Hello,Jeff,

Against loose players,call more frequently;against tight players,always fold.

Overall,tend to fold more than call.

You made a small mistake by folding;had you called,you could have made a big mistake.

I would have folded to a rather conservative player.


Sitting Bull

in the smaller games trips is less likely but in the bigger ones pairs comprise a much bigger % of the hands that are played. never the less. when he does have trips you are like a 7 or 8 to one dog to win the pot. and when he doesnt you are a small overall favorite to win maybe depending on how he starts. so i think jeff should have folded.

if you only had a pair of jacks would you fold or call? I think you are thinking about this hand only becasue you folded aces. if your opponent had trips then you are still a big dog, 7 or 8 to one or so (approx). Unless your opponent is a very loose player you made the right play. dont lose any sleep over it.


Pat

Others have laid out the probabilities, which make it probably good to lay it down. Another factor is how will you have to play the hand -- once he raises you can't do anything except make crying calls when he bets unless you catch an ace. Unless you can read this player really well and are pretty sure they don't have trips, crying calls from 4th to river is a miserable way to play a hand.

Hello,Ray,

Even in the smaller games,a player usually has two pairs or trips.

So why should his opponent "gamble" with his one big pair?

As you implied,he's making a small mistake by folding if the player has two underpairs , a 3-str.,or a 3-flush---but by continuing to play,he is usually making a BIG MISTAKE,which will usually cost him a lot more money in the long run.

There were a number of times when I fell in love with my 4-flush on 4th while one or two of my opponents paired their doorcards. I usually went home crying!--I made a serious mistake by continuing to play and it cost me dearly.

Avoiding those errors can easily increase one's profits by 10%-20% per year.


Sitting Bull

Helloo,MRB,

If you have a loose player looking at many of his 3rd str. hands,and this player pairs his doorcard,then you would want to give him the opportunity to make mistakes by betting into your big pair. In this case,you are usually making a "laughing" call--NOT a "crying" one!


Happy Pokering'

Sitting Bull

most lower limit players are not constrained in their starting hand requirements and can start with almost any three cards, especially if there is no raise. SO when they pair their door card there is less chance that they have trips of two pair. If they only have two pair, and you have aces, then you basically have to call to the river since you have a good chance of winning and your hand is profitable. many times when i played low limit players who paired their door cards had only the pair and nothing else. At 10-20 or higher this rarely happens, and it is more likely that you are badly beat. this is not to suggest that you should routinely call at low limits, but only that you can do so more often than you can at higher limits.


Pat

also, I forgot to mention above that at lower limits you can easily obtain free cards when the opponent only has twopair. Many players will not bet two pair for value on the end at low limit, which is another factor, and when they do have trips they willbe easy to read. a good player can use these factors to know when they can play and when they cant.


Pat