(J-J)-5, the hand progresses...

Ok, thanks for all the answers I'll try to capitalize the suggestions.


But that hand progressed and, probably wrong, I decided to raise because I hate to give freecards, even if these raises costed me money.


Summary:

2 bring-ins, a ten calls, I complete the bet with (J-J)-5, Queen raises, Ace cold calls 10 bucks, other players fold and I call (probably here I made a mistake, I had to reraise or to fold...).


4th street:


Queen showing catches a Jack suited, ACe a deuce, I catch a "beautiful scary" 5 so I have (J-J)5-5.

Hence the boards look:

x-x-Qs-Js (s means suited I don't remember the suit)

x-x-A-2

Me: (J-J)5-5

I'm high on board what to do?


I think in this spot I have to bet the full amount ($10) even I have a Jack dead, I cannot do other moves showing weakness. If I check and someone bet, I probably have to check-raise or fold.


"Obviously" the x-x-Qs-Js calls me and the Ace folds.


On 5th street, my opponent board is x-x-Qs-Js-blank, I catch a "beautiful" King (3rd suited card in my hand) a reason more to bet. Now my board is 5-5-K and my doorcard is suited with the KIng (scare board??????...).


I bet and x-x-Qs-Js-blank raises me.


Now I have a super dilemma. I have Jacks up, 3- flush and a board that could means trips or better. What does he raise me with? What to do? Fold or call (reraising here is a pure bluff..)


Thanks for any helps, I lose many many times with these type of hands that I need help or I have to abandon stud games...


Marco

tough spot. The answer is that is depends on the player. What is he representing? Since he called your double bet with a paired door card he does not think you have trips depsite your raise. He could be making a free card play with a draw, and a draw is his most likely hand. He should read you for at least two pair and since your pair is hidden he has to at least think that you could have a pair higher than q's. WHat other hand could he have, assuming he is not clueless? The only other hand that makes sense is rolled q's that he slowplayed. just call and check on sixth street. if he has trips you lose the same amount and if he has a draw he may keep bluffing into you and may bluff the river.


Pat

It depends on your opponent.


Against a nut-peddling rock, you should just fold.


Against most players, the K gives you enough to call. You're probably behind, but you have some outs.


Against players who are overly aggressive with weak hands, reraise at least some of the time. Your K gives you extra protection for those occasions when they actually have a hand.


The 3-flush adds very little value to your hand, by the way. Don't fall in love with it.


TRLS

Hello,Marc,

Since you decided to play 5th. St.,check and call all the way and pray to the poker gods.

I would have folded on 3rd since the Q's raised. I would not play two underpairs against an overpair unless I were playing 15-30 or higher.

The more dead money and the more ante,the more you should play two live underpairs. Sitting Bull

Dear Marco,

Let's take a look at your play of this hand. On third street you raised with your pocket Jacks when you had a 5 in the door. You earlier had made the comment, that your raise was probably incorrect, but that you hate to give free cards.


First I feel that not only was your raise appropriate, I feel that in this game it was almost mandatory.


I know what you are thinking. "But Doc not only did I have 2 overcards behind me, isn't it true that authors have said that you should play big pocket pairs deceptively?


Well let's take a look at that concept. While it is true for example that in his novella "7 card stud report" Mike Carrol says that we should play our big pocket pairs deceptively, if you review his work, you will see that he defines a loose game as one that has 2.5 or more callers.


Well that type of game (probably 40/80 or higher) has very little relationship to the 5/10 game that you are describing. If most all of your hands were going to be played heads up or 3 way, it's fine to be deceptive.


But just the opposite is true here. In this game if you don't raise, you might end up with 5 or 6 callers.


One of the keys to winning at low limit stud, is decreasing the number of opponents your big pairs play against. And even with your raise and the Queens reraise, you still ended up with a 3 way hand.


The second critical factor is that you want to know right now where you stand with your Jacks. So not only is your raise for isolation it also is for information.


(There just so happens to be a brilliant post in the general theory section entitled "Are Jacks worth "jack?") which explains that Jacks are really a weak starting hand unless you can adjust the odds to improve their value.


And your raise also gave you very valuable information especially when when the Queen reraised.


I feel that the next slightly incorrect opinion you expressed was "I probably should have dropped the Jacks when I was reraised"


Now if you had been in a late position and the Queen was raised by a conservative player, who rarely raises with hands other than big pairs, it would have been appropriate to fold, especially if you had had a split pair of Jacks.


But look at this situation, by the time the action gets back to you, there are already 6 small bets in the pot, and you have a live pocket pair, which being buried has significantly increased implied odds.


Higher limit poker, is a game of trapping your opponents with weaker hands. And the most common trapping situation,is the hidden fourth street set.


And since your pair is in the pocket your significantly increased implied odds and the increased odds given by the extra money in the pot, and the fact that you are in last position,all make it correct to call.


Now let's look at your fourth street possibilities. If you hit your Jack (2 outs) and the bigger pair (Queens) makes two pair on fourth street, you still are a 74% to 26% favorite.


But the other critical consideration is that if you make two pair (3 outs) and the Queens haven't improved, your smaller two pair versus his bigger pair now becomes the favorite to win in a two way pot.(I think the winning ratio is 55% to 45%, but I am not positive but it's close to that anyway)


Now the next thing that happens in this hand is that you hit your 5, and the Queen catches your Jack.


Now there is the mathematical concept of boost and drag. (I am presently writing an article about it) But what the concept says is "that cards that alter the winning probability of one hand boost the winability of the hand and place an equal amount of drag on your opponents hand.


So on third street your Jacks (with out a live over card kicker) would have been a 38% to 62% underdog to the Queens. But when you hit your two pair on fourth if the Queens didn't simultaneously hit a second pair, the 5 would boost your hand winability by 17%. Taking it from a 38% underdog to a 55% provable winning hand, when played heads up.


The second factor is that by your opponent catching your Jack, while it doesn't help your hand it puts a drag on his winnability because it tends to kill his probability of making two pair.


This would have increased your winnability by 4%, if it hadn't been a suited connector to his hand. But since it was a suited connector, the Jack only adds a boost of approx 1% to your hand, since it also provides some boost to his hand.


Consequently if your double bet was able to knock out the Ace door, which it did, you now statistically are a 56% to 44% favorite over the probably Queens.


(By now you are probably thinking "for the love of God, Doc isn't there an easier way to analyses this hand.) OK enough for now.


But in my opinion up to this point I feel that you played your hand the correct way. Under pairs are not fun to play, but they are playable if you stick to fairly rigid action criteria.


And if we waited to play only hands that have a significant winning edge (while we would still probably beat the game) our wins would be so minor that it would be hardly worth playing. And we would end up playing only 4 or 5 hands a session.


Thank you for raising this interesting question.


Good luck sincerely,


Doc AZ

First, ty for all answers; second: nice analisys (as always) Doc AZ.


In that hand I finished with Jacks up catching 2 breaks on 6th and 7th.


My opponent raised me on 5th with (K-10)Qs-Js-x-x and spiked an ACe for a str8 on the river. I had a good read on the hand (that is, he hadn't Queens or better on 3rd) but, let's say in this fashion (lol), I was unlucky.


Marco

People seem to love this play in low limit. I've seen guys make it in $1-5 countless times. They catch four to a draw and raise. In this case, your guy had one dead ace. You don't say if he also had a three flush. If all his nines are live along with the other 3 aces, plus a three flush, plus two live overcards he's got a lot of ways to beat you. On the other hand, you've only got 3 cards in the deck that can really help you, plus your 3 flush. I still think you're the favorite here, and should bet as long as he doesn't show improvement (ie. pairing his Q, hitting a 3rd spade) but you can't always read what improvement is. For example, you'd probably have been more worried if a ten hit his board than a 9, but a ten wouldn't have helped him that much, while a 9 would have made his straight. Definitely an uncomfortable position, and I do think you have to be resigned to getting drawn out on sometimes. If you have really good reads on this player, you may sometimes be able to avoid paying off after he makes his hand.