A Stud Concept: Negative Expecation Bets

Playing in my local 10-20 stud game. The hand isn't really important except to say that I had a flush in 5 cards and bet it when I hit. On sixth street, I caught a 4th spade on board. Both of my opponents paired their board (one a door card, another his 5th street card--there is no bring-in in this game, and my first bet was on 5th street (and the first of the hand) was on 5th when I hit my flush.) On the river, they checked to me and I checked my flush. My logic is that if I get raised, I am losing b.c it is obvious I have a flush. I was roundly criticized for not betting the river, but I just figured that I was in trouble if called or raised. OTOH, two pair might have paid off here. It turned out that the first player rivered broadway and would have paid off. I still think my logic is sound, but maybe I'm missing out on some bets here. What are your thoughts?


Jeff

I think you missed a bet unless these are very tricky players. Once they both check, I'm thinking it's worth $20 to get the call from two pair, trips or a straight. But it's tough to bet into two paired boards.

If you bet on sixth street and they called then this means one of two things, they dont think you have the flush or they are drawing to a full house. Given the possibility that they may think that you do not have the flush I would bet. If you get raised then you probably should make the crying call. Of course, this possibility is why you can make a case for not betting, since you will not have to make the crying call. But the best play against most players is to bet. But I think it is close and will certainly be open to persuasion.


Pat

I think you are right. After I posted the other post I thought of Bob Ciaffone's concept in his Improve your Poker book. That concept is that to bet on the river all you need to have is what you are representing, nothing more. This advice is worth considering here.


Pat

Hello,Jeff,

If your opponents are average to good players and raises you after your board is showing an apparent flush,you can safely toss your hand away.

Two pairs would probably call and a Str. would certainly call. In the long run,by not betting in this spot,you are losing money. In another words,by continuing to bet in a spot like this,you will win more than you will lose. So bet it up!


Happy Pokering,


Sitting Bull

One area of stud where I had difficulty when I started playing was making value bets on the river. I was constantly making checks like this (whether acting first or last) in fear of being raised when my opponent made a hand on his last card which will beat my hand.


I would usually check it down with flushes, straights, and always with two-pair. What a waste of money! Eventually, I simply built up the nerve to always value bet the river with any good two-pair or better even if I thought my opponent might be drawing to a straight or flush. I've definitely made more money on my value bets than I've lost by being raised and making a crying call.


I took a long-term perspective on the situation and have made quite a few extra bets because of it.

It depends on what they might have been drawing to.


In a 3-way pot in a full game, by the river you have usually seen at least 19 cards, leaving at most 33 unaccounted for. If they both had trips and were drawing to fill up, each player could have as many as 10 outs, and between them they need only 17 to make you less than even money. So if their draws are awfully live (which is rare), and if they are tricky enough to go for a check-raise on the river, you can lean towards checking, although it's still right to bet against most opponents.


But if they were both drawing to two pair, then they can't have more than 8 outs combined no matter how alive they are (unless they also have flush draws), so you're about a mathematical 3-1 favorite and should bet regardless of your opponents' style or ability.


If one is drawing to trips and the other to two pair, then the most outs they can have between them (excluding flushes) is 14, so at worst you're usually a bit better than even money, and often much better than that, and you should still bet.

Larry,

Another thing to take into account is the players in the game. While this is a soft game, we also play with each other often. They have seen me make folds they would not have, and I think a bluff raise is a possibility on the end (though slim, but still a possibility). Is betting wrong if I feel I will have to pay off in this spot or is it still better to bet?


Jeff

Jeff

When they both call my 6th street bet (4 flush on board), I have to put at least one of them on trips or possibly two pair. These opponents both checkraise and one is fond of doing it on a complete bluff b/c he sees me as tight. In this spot, do u still bet?


Jeff

Well, I think the other posters have nailed the theory and Lin's nailed the math. The read on the opponents is what separates decent players from good players -- and while theory and odds can help you make reads, only your instincts, experience and powers of observation can take you to the next level. In this instance, I think you've got enough edge that it would take a really strong read (or a tell) to fold to a raise. But, of course if the raiser will sometimes be bluffing, your calling expectation isn't always negative.

It's not that simple. I made it sound in my first response that a bet is automatic because of the odds, and that's really not the case. The odds give you insurance, and the bigger the odds, the better. But the main factor is how often your opponents will call with losers.


The worst-case scenario is that your two opponents will always fold losers and always raise winners. You are hugely -EV in this situation even if you always fold to a raise. Let's say your hand will win 60% of the time. That's nice, but your additional profit that 60% of the time is zero. The other 40% of the time, you lose your bet. So your expection is -.40 (x the bet size).


On the other hand, suppose that out of the 60% of the times you have the winner, one opponent or the other will call 50% of the time, and both opponents will call 30% of the time. So your expection is now (.5 x .6 x 1) + (.3 x .6 x 2) + (.4 x -1) = .30 + .36 - .40 = +.26.


Basically, what this means is that the more likely your opponents will call with losers, the more eager you should be to bet.


What makes it right to bet is not so much that you are the mathematical favorite, but that the overwhelming majority of stud players are afraid to fold what they perceive to be a "good hand" on the river, even when the situation is clearly hopeless. Crying calls are a major source of profit in stud, especially against non-tough opponents, and afterwards you will often hear something like, "I knew you had the flush but I just can't fold a straight."


The much harder decision is what to do if you are check-raised. You can probably fold most of the time, but you have to watch out for the tricky-bad player who is willing to put two bets in to try to push you off your hand when he could have just bet out and cost himself only one bet. A really expert player might also try it if he figures you to be a little tight-timid but smart enough to figure out that people don't usually bluff a check-raise here. As always, you have to estimate the probability that a check-raise is a bluff and compare this to the pot size before deciding whether or not to call.


TRLS

nm

Hello, Jeff,

Don't give any free cards away with your flush. Bet your hand in this spot! In the future,if you have 3 suited with one in the hole on 5th., you can do a semi-bluff bet and obtain a free card on 6th if you do not make your hand or continue to be the "Boss" if you do connect with your flush. Sitting Bull


Sitting Bull

I did bet my hand on 6th (sorry I didn't make that clear in my initial post). I would never give a free card in this spot. It is the river bet that concerns me because against tricky players who will usually checkraise a boat in this spot (but one who will sometimes checkraise a complete bluff knowing that im thinking he has to be able to beat a flush), I feel like a bet is either marginally profitable or a slight loser...I'm not sure which. So I elected not to bet the river, but I am leaning towards continuing to drive next time. What do you think.. BTW, thanks for all your great insights; you have definitely helped to improve my game.


Jeff {if you're gonna be a degenerate poker player, you might as well try to get good at it =)}

Dear Dynasty,

Good playing! But if you can put your opponent on a draw with a reasonable amount of accuracy and he sometimes bluff on the river but will fold a busted hand or a single pair if you bet your two pair, give him an opportunity to make a mistake, You should make more money. If he raises you on the river and he's an average to above average player,fold your two pair. These players will have a strong enough hand to beat two pairs.


Sitting Bull

Hello, Jeff,

Bet 'em up! And hope that you are just called ,but not raised. If some of the players check-raise bluff,just call and cross your fingers and pray to the poker gods! I know that you love playing poker next to breathing! I would not want to play with you in my game unless I were interested in an education. Happy pokering,Jeff


And ask your opponents how they like their "New Boss" Sitting Bull

If an opponent will frequently bluff checkraise, that's a reason to bet, not a reason to check. You want to encourage your opponents to bluff too much.

Lin, I haven't seen that method of counting the combined number of outs, though I've read "Theory of Poker" and similar books. I don't get the logic in this example that 17 outs for your opponents makes you a dog, nor do I know how you're approximating the number of outs for trips on 7th street w/live cards. I'm assuming you've worked these ideas out many times before. Can you either simplify in this case for my meagre understanding or point me to a good book/article on this method of calculating expectation? Thanks!

Oh yeah--17 outs vs 33 cards left ... it just takes me a while to catch on. Never saw count it up quite that way before. Neat.