STUD HAND WITH MANIACS.... (LONG)

Hello Again Posters,


Here is a hell of a situation that developed earlier this week in a 1-5 stud game where, quite honestly I was undecided on a number of occassions as what to do.


The problem with this hand is my main two opponents are best described as 'MANIACS' ( closely resemble west coast Hold'em Players ) Both will bet and/or raise with any pair, any 2 or 3 high cards and any draw. From what I can tell the two are friends. Also both of these friends have been catching cards and have developed quite substantial stacks. If I were against tougher opponents ( or at least straightforward ones ) some of my decisions would of been much, much easier.


With the exception of these two, table is typical 1-5 game with mostly weak players. 2 Decent ones however.


Anywho, Here is how the hand went down.


I am first to act after 3h brings it in for $1.

I have (Ac Ad)9d. I raise to $5. ( game has 50 cent ante )


All fold to Maniac#1 who has 10s as door. He Re-raises to $10.

All fold to Maniac#2 who has Ah in door. He Re-raises to $15.


I call and Maniac #1 calls. Low card folded. 3 way action.


4TH STREET.....


ME --- (Ac Ad)4d 4c


Maniac#1 (XX)10s Qc


Maniac#2 (XX)Ah As


Maniac #2 of course comes out firing $5.


Action to me. Now this is the last card I wanted to see my opponent catch. I actually had to sit there and think about this one. Like I said above, if this was a straightforward 1-5 player who only raises ( especially re-raises ) with high pairs I could easily fold here thinking I am beat by two higher pair. But this guy is a complete idiot... SO...


I RAISE to $10.


Maniac #1 RE-RAISES to $15. Yup.. Yes he did.


Maniac #2 of course CAPS the betting at $20.


Action back to me again. Now I am really thinking.. I will post all of my remaining thought processes on a separate post with results...

I call the last bet.


5TH STREET


ME --- (Ac Ad)4d 4c 3c


Maniac#1 (XX)10s Qc 2s


Maniac#2 (XX)Ah As 3h


Maniac #2 bets $5. I just call. Maniac#1 raises to $10 Maniac #2 JUST CALLS. I RE-RAISE to $15. Maniac#1 ALSO JUST CALLS.


6TH STREET


ME --- (Ac Ad)4d 4c 3c Kc


Maniac#1 (XX)10s Qc 2s Kh


Maniac#2 (XX)Ah As 3h 7h


Maniac #2 CHECKS, I CHECK, Maniac#1 BETS $5, Maniac #2 RAISES to $10. I call. Maniac#1 RE-RAISES to $15 Maniac#2 caps at $20. I call.


RIVER


I get the 4s to boat me...


Maniac#2 BETS $5. I just call. Maniac#1 RAISES to $10. MANIAC#2 RE-RAISES to $15. I CAP at $20. Everyone calls.


Wow, hopefully I got all this info correct. ( I'm sure some of you will let me know if I screwed up somewhere )

Well posters what did the 2 other MANIACS have?

How would you have played this hand and do you agree or disagree with how I played my hand?


I will post results and my thought processes in another post shortly.


Thanks in advance.


Later,


CJ

Well hello again posters..


I am now really pissed cause I had just finished typing this analysis ( which was long ) and my computer crashed.. So here I go again. Maybe my computer was telling me to not babble so much.


3RD STREET..


Straightforward play here. Especially against these players.


4TH STREET..


This is THE PROBLEM STREET and it is THE reason I am posting this hand on the forum today.


Once again the major problem with the situation I am in here is I am playing against 2 Maniacs who really could have anything... If they have a hand they are going to play. They both raise and or re-raise.. Period. They very rarely just called. Maniac #1 just called ( slowplayed ) earlier in the day with a rolled hand which was also key in my decisions with this hand. Actually both of them, when they did just call ( or slowplay ) seemed to have trips or bigger. ( on the early streets at least ) They were both clueless as to how to play the game.


Anywho...


Like I said in my original post. Given the fact an A 3 bet my pocket AA and then proceeded to catch the case A on 4th. Against your averagely sane opponent, I would fold thinking I am beaten by a higher 2 pair. Actually most of the time ( at least at these limits ) it is an EASY fold. Well I am not so lucky this time. Here I am against morons.. So that Is the reason for my RAISE on 4th. I could have easily had the best hand and I am going to get a chance to play heads-up and we can see how the boards develop. Right? Wrong!!!


Problem #2 with this street arises when Maniac #1 decides to 3 bet. Now once again, in your normal game. When the action gets back to me.. I have an easy fold. Well once again I am not so lucky. I should have noted in my original post that thoughts of COLLUSION were running through my mind now. ( they seemed to love bullying each other around and the rest of the table. But since they very rarely checked anything I wasn't too concerned. I just started to pay closer attention ) I really do think I have to call in THIS particular instance. I certainly don't want to lay down a winner cause 2 friends are raising each other. All I am starting to be concerned with here is the Q Maniac#1 caught. ( for a possibility of trip Q's ) AA maniac is going to raise just due to the fact that he has AA.


For all you math wizards out there. ( like my friend DOCAZ ) Since I am not a math wizard. What mathematical % favorite am I with AA44 against AA(2 overcards). Also throw in my chances including 9-10-J-Q. ( which is what I was putting maniac#1 on )


5TH STREET


This is where ( by the way the hands were played ) that I had a fairly good idea that I was in the lead.


I just called the first bet cause I was fairly sure Maniac#1 would raise again and I wanted to see where Maniac#2 stood. Sure enough when Maniac#1 raised and Maniac#2 just called, I knew I was still in the lead against Maniac#2. I RE-RAISED here to see where I stood against Maniac#1. When he just called my re-raise I was absolutely convinced he was on the straight draw. ( or he actually just had QQ-1010 ) Either way I was fairly sure I was winning.


6TH STREET


Another problem street cause If my reads on my opponents are correct, I am beaten right now...


I check right behind Maniac#2 smelling RAT.. Sure enough those two get in the raising war with their made hands.


Fortunately I have picked up an AK high club draw and must proceed to the river.


RIVER


Well I was fortunate enough to make my boat. Now I am in 'punishing mode' and want to extract the most money here.

That is the reason for my just calling the first bet. I was 99.9% sure Maniac#1 was going to raise with his represented straight not paying much mind to Maniac#2 represented flush.

Thereby giving me the chance to CAP.


RESULTS


Sure enough Maniac#1 had the straight.

Maniac #2 had the flush ( with no 2nd pair mind you )


I took a huge pot down.


IN RETROSPECT..


I am still having a problem with 4th street. For several reasons. Which is why I am hoping you math geniuses out there can help me out with some statistics. ( DOCAZ, DYNASTY can you help me out here.. please ) Ultimately, even against the morons, I think a fold wouldn't have been a bad play. For the following reasons. 1) Neither player was going to fold. I can't represent anything ( like trip 4s ) since they don't care anyway 2) Since Maniac#1 was an idiot and Maniac#2 knew this he was going to keep re-raising with his AA no matter what! 3) I am in the middle of these two dipshits 4)AA could of easily made a second pair at a later street higher than my 2nd pair


Anyway sorry for the long posts. I just think it was an interesting situation to be in here. It has been a long time since I was sandwiched in-between two 'RAISIN' GAMBLERS' at the stud table. Hold-em yes. not in stud however.


Well All comments are welcomed please.

Even though I was sure I had the best hand all along ( excluding 6th street ), I still think I got lucky on this one.


Later,


CJ

Hello,CJ,

I would have re-raised on 3rd and folded on 4th. The 4's were too small to continue playing against an opponent with the other A's.


Sitting Bull

This is a classic example of the "Horse Race" idea that has been discussed many places, including Sklansky 7-stud book. You're winning early, THEY should fold not you. But they won't. You know that individually they are dogs (and losers for life playing this way). But, as you say, they're going to play regardless and that makes your situation really tough. You've got a semi-dead hand but one that could be the winner on 4th. But you've got to beat two draws, and pay for the privilege. I think your play was correct all the way -- even on 6th, you're getting enough odds (including the implied odds if you hit your A-flush or 4s full) to chase. But I also think that knowing these players, the place to ponder is when your ace in the door is raised and re-raised on 3rd street. You know these players are going to be giving you action, your aces are semi-dead (or maybe completely). Against typical players who will either weakly make crying calls or fold, you are comfortable. Against tough to read maniacs who won't fold and will bet it up, how comfortable are you pushing a semi-dead top pair? It sounds crazy but this could be the place to release your aces, for a single $5 bet. Especially because whether explicitly or not, these players are colluding to bet it up. Whether they split their winnings/losses after or not, they clearly sound like they were feeding off each other to rock the game. What I'd try to do here is play super tight (wait 'til my aces are live) and look for spots to limp with drawing hands and catch perfect on 4th. Again though, I don't think there's much wrong with your play if you're willing to accept the variance. The issue is really knowing you've got to play one on two for capped bets each time.

btw -- was this at Foxwoods or Mohegan?

I was just at the latter Wed. and it was

v. quiet -- the only maniac was a guy with

a big stack who didn't come in much, but

every 5 hands or so would come in with

something like 2-10-A rainbow and raise

all the way to the river. He went through about

$150 in an hour then left for 45 minutes. Was

he having dinner and getting un-tilted?

Not at all. He returned and announced

he blew off $200 playing blackjack. He then

proceeded to blow through another $100 in

the next half hour before leaving.

Hello,MrB,

I "envy" him. He was having a lot of fun!


Sitting Bull

This hand was at Foxwoods this past Sunday.


Later,


CJ

Hello again CJ,

Well what an interesting hand you have brought us. It's a challenge more for the opponents you faced than for the cards that you were dealt.


(since our forum has readers at all levels of expertise ,I am going to review some materials that you are already aware of)


Like you I hate to play against two maniacs in a stud game. In holdem you have 5/7 of your hand on the flop and a your hand has a significantly smaller chance of getting out drawn. But as you know two maniacs can really work you over in stud. Also in stud the maniacs have one more betting round to cap you out on than they do in Holdem.


When I find myself at this kind of a table I am asking for a table change, especially if there is any chance of collusion. And like you did I am looking for the big starting hand and then looking for the good hit on fourth, and hopping that my opponents don't get a dangerous card.


The problem is of course in this hand, is that you can't get a good read on your opponents and as Cappelletti would say, the regularity with which the maniac out draws the quality player often seems to defy mathematics.


The key to this entire hand revolves around your fourth street decisions. First are you willing to accept the possability that you may end up having to call four capped bets with this hand? Second do you have the best hand on fourth street?. And third if you do have the best hand at the moment,and what is the probability that your hand+

will hold up? (Or improve enough to win at the river?)


So lets do the math:

You properly read the fourth street hands of your opponents. So what are the probable winning percentages. If your two pair were LIVE the probabilities would be.

1 The four straight draw would win 36% of the time

2 The big pair with the 3 flush would win 31% of hands

3 Your big two pair would win 33% of the time


But your big pair is DEAD so your hand winability develops a drag of from 3 to 4%. And now you are in the situation of putting 33% of the monies into the pot and a probability of winning of only 29%

With your big pair dead

1 The four straight will win 39% of the time.

2 pair (also dead) with the three flush will win 32% of the time

3 your dead big two pair will win 29% of the time.


And then there is the other big possibility and that is that you might have been against another bigger two pair. In which case you would be in a world of hurt.


Its true that "all pairs die with the exception of Aces which can never die " but the corollary is "unless that is that the Aces are against another pair of aces and in that case then they can die"


So in this hand, you are probably going to have to improve to win. And when the second ace came out the chance of your making a full house dropped from 24% to 15% on third street, and by 6th street if you still haven't filled, your fill chances will have dropped from 9% to 6%.


In summery: If you could have played this hand very cheaply and then if you did fill up you could jacked up the betting, in that case you might have played the hand very carefully. But that was not possible in this situation, and so your best play provably would have been to drop the hand on fourth.


As you know our rule to play in low limit multiway hands is, best hand or best draw, or no play. Unfortunately in this case you didn't have either.


But here is the beauty of poker, and that is that you did fill up on the river. Your filling has to renew your faith. There is an old saying that the "quality player gets out drawn much more than the weak player because the quality player starts with such a higher percentage of better starting hands". And your are a quality player and we are sincerely happy that you beat the odds.


Some days ago I posted a similar hand analysis titled "how many mistakes did I make in this hand" My primary mistake was in betting two medium pair into a 5 way pot on fourth" Your mistake was similar in that you were "taking a dead big two pair into two jammers that probably got improvement on fourth


It's what I call "the quality player's trap." What happens is that the quality player waits for an hour for a good starting hand, and then that long waited for hand improves just enough to get him or her pot stuck. But if we are going to make a mistake at least its nice to be in good company.


Thank you for raising this challenging question.


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ

Larry,


I couldn't re-raise again on 3rd. Betting was capped. ( 3 raise max )


Later,


CJ

DocAz,


Thanks for the math...


Like I said in my results, I agree with you that folding 4th probably would have been best.. Even though I was fairly sure I had the best hand. I did have too many ways to lose.


An interesting point this post does bring up is the importance of having a straightflush Kicker with your high pair. Notice that I ultimatley improved to a higher draw than both of my opponents made hands on 6th street, thus making my 6th street call(s) easy with that size pot.


I am looking forward to not being in this situation again any time soon. 2 Maniacs at the same stud table produces some wild swings. You will be happy to know that ultimately these 2 maniacs, after their 'rush' gave back quite a significant portion of their stacks back to the better players at the table.


Thanks Again Doc,


CJ

I for one like playing stud with maniacs and hate playing hold'em with them, but that's not the subject of this thread.


You have to fold on fourth street. You are going to have to show down the best hand, and you're probably drawing very slim. Your opponent may well have started with a pair higher than fours in the hole, in which case you're already drawing to two outs with four betting rounds to come. Can you say reverse implied odds? If he doesn't have a pair in the hole, he probably has two cards higher than a four in the hole, and can hit them at any time, and you won't know when. So, even if he doesn't have Aces-up, he still has an good chance to make it, and if he does, you're in deep doo-doo. Plus, you have his buddy to worry about. If you can see the river cheaply, maybe, but this wasn't a cheap hand, was it? As Jim Brier says, wait for a better gambling opportunity.


That said, there is nothing so satisfying as spiking your two-outer, is there? /images/smile.gif