15/30 stud hand (good or weak play?)

Greetings,


Here is a stud hand I played recently in a HOSE game. Some thought I played it weakly... All comments appreciated.


I open raise w/ Qh (5s 5h), a 4c calls as does a 7. The bring in folds. (2 K's are folded as is a 3 (the bring in).


4th street the 7 catches an offsuit K, Q offsuit 2, and the 4 a suited J.


The K bets I raise the J4 cold calls, and the K7 calls.


5th K7 blank, Q2Q, J4 blank. I bet J4 calls and K7 folds.


6th Jc4c blank Ac, Q2Q blank.


I check he bets I call.


River I catch a Q and checkraise, he calls and shows a flush...


SO did I over push this hand? . I actually thought by raising 4th I could get it heads up w/a hand that I doubted was K's. ONce the suited J called I thought I was against a flush draw.


However on 6th getting about 8-1 I thought I should call, though I pbly would call again ont the river. I wonder how bad this play is. I certainly have enough to call w/ 6th, and on the river Im getting 10-1 on the off chance Im good. But it seems unlikely Q's up is good here but if Im wrong and fold Im making a very big mistake.


Apparently K7 had rolled up 7's (his neighbor said he did!) but my play convinced him I had 3 Q's and layed it down. Some who heard this hand could not believe I didn't even have Q's on 4th, and the way I played it, made it appear I was even *full* on 5th.


Comments?

I can't find anything obvious to criticize here. The raise on 4th might have been a bit pushy - a lot depends on the sort of player the 4J hand is. If he just won't fold on 4th - and a lot of players won't, especially with a hand like 9c4d/4cJc which looks better to them than it is - you might better just call and see what develops on 5th, where the doubled bet gives you more leverage. You don't like giving up cheap cards here, but on the other hand, it looks like you need some yourself - fives don't beat sevens. Raising to get heads up is a nice idea, but only when it works. If you do it too often when it doesn't work, you're costing yourself way too much money.


The 3rd street raise might be arguable also, depending on where you were sitting relative to the kings.


The call on 6th street is definitely right if all four of your outs are still live. There are about 36 cards left of which 4 are yours, so your actual odds are 8-1, which is what the pot is paying. You should probably even call with only 3 outs because even though you're only 11-1 to improve, against most players there's enough chance that they are bluffing the flush that you can figure on winning sometimes with your unimproved two pair.

Hello, Suspicious,

On 6th, the pot is laying you 8-1;you're 10-1 against filling.

However,if you fill and your opponent calls your checkraise,your call on 6th st. was good.

************************************************** ************************************************** ****************************** Since you were able to convince at least one player that you had split Q's,your play was correct---with all live cards. Since you raise the semi-dead K on 4th,you would certainly convince me that you had at least split Q's. That was an excellent play against this field. I would have certainly folded my semi-dead K's once the Q hit you.

I don't see anything to criticize in your play--but I certainly don't understand some of the passive plays of your opponent.

(1) For what was the rolled-up 7's waiting? Isn't he aware that his trips are vulnerable to over-pairs. He had a semi-dead sidecard on 4th. and still didn't re-raise?If one player had K's,why wasn't he aggressive? Why just call? Sitting Bull

Hello,Lin,

The statement: "It's nice to go heads-up when it works,but if it doesn't work,it will cost you too much money".

Apparently,Suspicious evaluated the field sufficiently to determine that his play would accomplish his objective:reducing the field,and convincing the opposition that he had a split pair of Q's.

So the question to ask yourself is whether your objective will be accomplished by your play.


Sitting Bull

Larry wrote:

The statement: "It's nice to go heads-up when it works,but if it doesn't work,it will cost you too much money".


That's a bit of a misquote. What I actually wrote was:


"Raising to get heads up is a nice idea, but only when it works. If you do it too often when it doesn't work, you're costing yourself way too much money."


To me, at least, what you say I wrote and what I actually wrote don't say the same thing at all.


In any case, I wasn't saying suspicious shouldn't have raise on 4th. I was only suggesting that depending on the opponent, a delayed raise on 5th might have worked better. Or it might not. Suspicious was there, observing the opponents play on previous hands, and I was not. I might also have raised in the given circumstances.


A raise on 4th is absolutely brilliant, of course, if you know for a fact that you're going to catch a Q on 5th, but most of us aren't that good.


L.

I'll tell you one thing the 7's played horribly, I have nightmares about playing a hand that poorly. I think you played it OK. Why wouldnt you cal on sixth? Unless I am reading it wrong you were ahead the whole way and he caught on the river. I dont see why you would think your hand was not best on sixth street. If anything I would have checkraised on sixth, but more likely I would have bet out.


Pat

The guy w/ Jc4c is an OK player though stud is not his best game. I thought it was very probable he had a 4 flush on 4th, now to suggest to bet into him on 6th when he catches an A of his suit maybe be feasible but seems dangerous.


The guy w/alleged rolled up 7's was waiting until 5th or 6th(?) apparently to show strength. I don't htink this idea is so bad.


The point about 6th st/7th st is that though I have odds to call on 6th, it is very hard to fold on the river even if I don't improve. I was wondering if this is a mistake or this is something one must just "pay off."

I did misread your post. On 6th street you say 6th Jc4c blank Ac" and for some reason I thought this meant the J4 caught a blank. I might still bet into him, and I have posted similar posts before regarding this. But in your situation it is obvious the J4 has a fourflush so you are probably OK to check and call. But by betting he may check the river fearing that you have the full house already, since you bet into what is possibly an obvious flush. I will often raise on sixth street in this situation against weak players who will check the river, and if you think about it you will see why. Some people think I am nuts for this, but if you think about it you will see the logic. Essentially I gain an extra bet when I fill, but lose the same if my raise forces him to check the river.


The reason I say the 7's played horribly is not because he waited to play fast but because he folded. He had good odds to keep playing even against a flush, plus he is twice as likely as you to make a fullhouse. He apparently thought you were full, but I dont see why he would think that.

"The reason I say the 7's played horribly is not because he waited to play fast but because he folded. He had good odds to keep playing even against a flush, plus he is twice as likely as you to make a fullhouse. He apparently thought you were full, but I dont see why he would think that."


Folding the rolled-7s is wrong. The pot is too large.


However, suspicious's aggressive play suggested AT LEAST trip Queens on fifth street. He raised on third street to represent split Queens. Then he raised a K on fourth street! Some players would think "he's got at least two pair- Qs and 2s". Others would think "trips". When he pairs his doorcard Q, it's tough not to think he's got trip Queens based on the deceptive way he's played his hand. The 7s are in a tricky spot.

Hello, Dynasty,

Suspicious' opponent put him on a set of Q's, so why should he continue donating chips with a set of 7's.

Even if the 7's fill,the Q's can fill too.


Sitting Bull

It's not a donation.


There are 6.5 big bets in the pot when it gets to the 7s on fifth street. If the 7s call here and one big bet goes into the pot from each player on sixth street, the pot will have 10.5 big bets in it when the river cards are dealt. The 7s are paying 2 big bets (one on fifth and sixth) to see the river card and a chance to win a pot of at least 12.5 big bets and possibly as much as 16.5 big bets.


The reality of stud is that you often have to chase an opponent who you believe has a better hand when you've got a good draw to beat him. If you don't chase in stud, you aren't going to be a long-term winner.


The 7s are calling 2 bets (5th and 6th streets) for a good chance to win a pot of 6 to 8 times more than the investment.

Patrick,


I thought about it and I don't see the logic behind your play. You have to appreciate the Q's will act first on 6th and 7th. SO even if you raise on 6th (or bet into the apparent flush), and now proceed to check the river you need someone who you have "extreme control over" who will now check the river after you check to him.


I think some authors have posted variants of this play (eg raising on 6th w/ say bare aces against a board like K 2 55), and checking the river if you don't improve and betting if you do. However one must appreciate some of the problems w/this play. The alleged K's may reraise on 6th, or call and proceed to bet into if they think this is what you are up to (trying to buy a free show down if you dont' improve).


Maybe it is hard to believe I am full (on 5th) though someone watching the hand said it appeared that way. At the very least it seems very hard to believe I don't have trip Q's on 5th the way I played it.


I think because this was just one game in a rotation game so some people don[t know when to chase and when to dump. If this was a stud only table things might have been different. Though the 7's are in bad situation w/ a dead card, boating seems slight and it looks like he is badly behind not to mention even if I dont' have trip ladies the flush will come more than 1/3 of the time. I wonder how much equity trip sevens have in a pot against a flush draw, and over trips.

Hello,Dynasty,

The rolled-up 7's was too greedy. He should have taken over the driver's seat early and not be a passenger on 3rd


Sitting Bull

I don't mind calling on 3rd but once he gets raised on 4th street, he might as well start swinging and 3-bet immediately.

You are right and there are sometimes problems with this play especially against players who know that I make it. But I do make this play often, and I post it as something for you to think about. If I raise on sixth street and he checks on the river with a made flush then if I do not improve then I still lose the same amount since he will bet on teh river and I have to call. But if I fill I can bet and he will have to call, so I make an extra bet. But he has to act first for this play to work.


Pat