Bush 2:1 odds? Need some math nerds to check my work.

[EarlCat]

RealClearPolitics.com shows 9 toss-up states: FL (27), HI (4), IA (7), MN (10), NH (4), NM (5), OH (20), PA (21), and WI (10).

Among the other states, Bush has 227 votes, and Kerry has 203. Assuming all Bush-leaning states vote Bush, and all Kerry-leaning states vote Kerry, and a 50/50 chance of winning any toss-up state, I figure the odds are Bush 68%, Kerry 30%, and a tie 2% (43 or more votes for a Bush win, 42 for tie, 41 or less for loss).

I calculated 512 possible outcomes. Of those, Bush wins 350, Kerry wins 153, and they tie 9.

Am I off base predicting Bush has roughly 2:1 odds?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html

[blank frank]

[ QUOTE ]
RealClearPolitics.com shows 9 toss-up states: FL (27), HI (4), IA (7), MN (10), NH (4), NM (5), OH (20), PA (21), and WI (10).

Among the other states, Bush has 227 votes, and Kerry has 203. Assuming all Bush-leaning states vote Bush, and all Kerry-leaning states vote Kerry, and a 50/50 chance of winning any toss-up state, I figure the odds are Bush 68%, Kerry 30%, and a tie 2% (43 or more votes for a Bush win, 42 for tie, 41 or less for loss).

I calculated 512 possible outcomes. Of those, Bush wins 350, Kerry wins 153, and they tie 9.

Am I off base predicting Bush has roughly 2:1 odds?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_EC.html

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, you are. Political polls have large sources of error that are ignored by the pollsters and the media. Non-response error means that of poor, rich, and single male demographics are under represented. This means the error on those polls is bigger than you think, and there are a lot more toss up states that the news says.