Stud Hand: Trips vs. Flush on 5th street

I haven't played any stud for the past 1 1/2 weeks. It's been all Hold'em. But, here's a hand I remember from the summer. It's 1-5 stud at Mandalay Bay on the Vegas Strip.


I can't remember the specific cards which may have been on the boards but I do remember all the important details. I'll "creatively" fill in the rest.


The low-card 2c brings it in for $1. I call with (Kd,Kc)7h. I always just call the $1 bring in unless someone else raises ahead of me. We can debate this issue but I've found it to be the best strategy in Vegas 1-5 stud with no antes. Three more callers.


The third street boards are:


(x,x) 2c

(Kd,Kc) 7h (ME!)

(x,x) 9c

(x,x) Td

(x,x) 4s (Grumpy Old Man)


"Grumpy" is a player who will no longer play with me. He always asks for a table change if I sit at his table while waiting for a Hold'em seat. His wife, a very nice lady, once talked about me as I was leaving and said "He always wins". I think they're both retired and spend a few afternoons each week playing stud for recreation.


Grumpy plays well but is predictable. He'll only come in on third street with a pair, three-flush, or three-straight. He bets if he thinks he's got the best pair/hand and will check-call while drawing. He'll easily laydown any pair on fourth street if someody with a bigger upcard than his pair bets. When this guy bets or raises, it demands respect.


The fourth street boards are:


(x,x) 2c,4d

(Kd,Kc) 7h,6c (ME!)

(x,x) 9c,3h

(x,x) Td,6h

(x,x) 4s,8s (Grumpy Old Man)


The high board Td,6h checks. Everybody else checks to me and I bet $3 on my pocket Kings. Everybody folds except Grumpy. He reads hands well enough to think that I'm betting with something better than a lone pair of 7s or 6s and calls. (I would have bet a medium pair here since everyone checked to me but Grumpy wouldn't think that I'd do that. He thinks I've got better)


The fifth street boards are:


(Kd,Kc) 7h,6c,Kh

(x,x) 4s,8s,As


Grumpy has the high board now. He thinks for a while and makes a very animated check (Guess what he has?). I bet the full $5 to make sure I've put him on the right hand and, of course, he raises me another $5. I know he LOVED check-raising me while he knew he had the better hand. He raised with out any hesitation and said "Raise" rather loudly. I think he was seeking a little retritbution for all the money I've taken from their retirement savings account. Can't blame him. I might have played it exactly as he did. The raise demands respect.


In this heads-up situtation, how do you want to play the rest of the hand?


Related topic: If the pot were multi-way, should I 3-bet with trips against a "guaranteed" flush to (A) get the pots heads-up and (B) to increase the size of the pot in case I make my full-house?


Would three players be enough to make this raise? If not, how many players need to be in the pot?

Because it was heads-up and I was 100% positive he had the Ace-high flush, I only called on 5th street.


He bet on 6th street and I called unimproved.


On the river, I made my Kings-full and raised his bet. He called and I showed the winner. He also showed his hand. He had the flush.


Even on fifth street, I had already decided to fold on the river if I did not make a full-house rather than pay-off with trip Kings. I was that sure.

1. I think just calling the bring in here is generally the correct strategy in 1-5 if there is no ante as in vegas. in connecticut I would raise( and other places where there is an ante).


2.There is $11 in the pot on fourth street. When he raises you there is $21 and you have to call five more. So you are getting 4-1 right now. Your 6's and 7's are completely live as is the case king. so you should call, then check call on sixth and check fold on seventh if you miss and check raise if you hit it.


3. I would not raise with trips in this situation even in a multiway pot. you do not want to knock anyone out and the flush is there for all to see. let them call if they want to make a mistake. now if you thought a raise might force grumpy to back off and check on sixth street then you should consider it, but this may prevent you from checkraising on the river if you make the hand.


Pat

I like the way you played this all the way Dynasty. My only

question would be why not just bet $1 instead of $5 on 5th street

(or even check back) since this player is so predictable and you are almost sure he's made his flush, why not either let him raise back off a smaller raise (you are losing here, after all) or just

go to sixth, when you know he'll bet out and you can either call unimproved or raise back if you hit. Clearly, you're staying to draw to your boat and are getting good odds to do so. But every bet you put in unimproved at even money has negative expectation, so why do it? The key here is that you had such a good handle on what this player held.

Dynasty,


I like Pat's comments on the way the hand was played. Although in a multiway pot ( say 4 players or more ) with live ones who will call anyway, I would reraise almost everytime with your hand. In your situation I believe calling was just fine. ( as was the $5 bet on fifth street )


Later,


CJ

Vegas or not, I would have bet at least $2 on 3rd street, more if there are any loose callers at the table. I don't subscribe to the Milkrun Theory, sorry. I'm happy to settle for the bring-in. If the nits don't want to play, that's fine. I'll take the extra $10 an hour or more in stolen bring-ins.


But regardless of what happens on 3rd, on 4th street I would have fired with $5. There's enough in the pot now ($5) to make it worth trying to win, and any time you play a pair past fifth street you're getting into a "win a little, lose a lot situation". Plus, I don't want to play KK in a multiway pot, which could happen if I don't run the riffraff out now, and I sure as hell don't want to give Grumpy a discount on his probable draw.


On 5th, I would have checked when Grumpy checks. Because he's Mr Predictable, I know he wouldn't still be in the hand here unless he has a flush or a pairsy (one pair/two pair/small trips) hand. The problem is, I don't know which. He's actually more likely to hold the pairsy hand, mathematically speaking. But unless he's a complete idiot, he will fold about all of those pairsy hands except the rarest ones (trips, aces, aces up). So maybe 95% of the time, betting on 5th is going to result either in Grumpy folding or in Grumpy raising, making it an unprofitable play for me in either case. I might as well check and, in case he doesn't have the flush, try to get him to bet a pairsy loser into me on 6th street.


If Grumpy then bets on 6th I'll either call him down or raise depending on who catches what. If he checks on 6th, I'll probably bet, again depending on the cards (if he makes an open four-flush, obviously I have to just call).


As for raising with trips vs a flush to drive out a third player, absolutely no, you don't want to do that. You're the drawing hand now, and all raising does is kill your pot odds and implied odds without measurably increasing your chances of winning. Besides, you'll often get reraised, just making your mathematical situation worse. Call and be happy if the third player calls - the extra money is helping to pay for your draw.

Hello, Dynasty,


Call 5th and 6th;if you don't fill,fold.

If the game were a high-ante game with a lot of dead money, I would raise several times if both of my side-cards were live;otherwise,I would just call.


Happy pokering,


Sitting Bull

Hello,MrB,

I do not believe Dynasty put "Grumpy" on a flush until his opponent raised. On 5th st. Dynasty had to bet to avoid giving a free card--in case "Grumpy" did not have the flush.

He needed to obtain some quick information to verify his suspicion. Dynasty's bet on 5th was a small error--he still could fill. Giving a free card when you have the best hand is a much bigger error.


Happy Pokering,


Sitting Bull

Dear Dynasty,

I am really glad that you brought up this topic. Unless you have a good understanding of value betting draws, you simply can't play our game successfully at the most competitive levels.I have read all of the available stud literature, and to be honest I haven't found what I consider to be a through description of this principle. I am going to describe my technique, for calculating the profitability of betting draws and would appreciate it, if any other members of our forum, with a more through understanding of the topic, would correct any misunderstandings on my part.

Your specific question on betting for value has several variants that make it unique, so I feel the best approach would be to describe the "classic" draw sinerio and then describe how to calculate in the variants in your case.


Classic example

Raising for value on fourth street with the "big live flush draw"


Hand

xx Qs 7h

xx 2d 3h

Ac Kc Jc 4c (your hand)


In this situation we have selected a nearly ideal raising sinerio.In this case the 3 of hearts was the forced bring in. You called with a totally live flush (not a single one of your clubs was in the hands of other players on either 3rd or 4th street. And the Queen called, making her the action leader on fourth ,and placing you in last position. Here you have seen 11 cards in other players hands and are against no opponents that probably have a likely set (with the passable fullhouse overdraw) since there are no paired door cards. Also there is no possible larger flush draw than yours.

Now in our sinerio we have the Queen coming out betting, the possible wheel draw calling, and the action coming to you in last position.If you decide to raise in this situation what are your possible advantages.


First as a value bet: In this sinerio your bet is for value since you have a 56% chance of filling your flush (Othmer pp 150)A 6% chance of filling your tree top straight, and a fair chance of winning the hand with one or two big pairs.


So to calculate the possible positive mathematical advantage of your hand over your opponents, you simply take the probability of making your flush, add the probability of making your straight , add the probability that you will win the hand with one or two big pair and SUBTRACT the probability that one of the other hands will redraw to a bigger hand.


(I am pulling these numbers off the top of my head so I


will ask your understanding if I am 1% or 2% off)


Flush 56%, straight 6%,Pair or two pair win 6%(since the probability that you can make all these hands simultaneously is impossible the winability is not directly additive but decreased aprox10%)Then you subtract the probability that your hand will be overdrawn and you come up with a winning probability of approx 60% in a three way pot.


Now to determine if your bet has positive mathematical expectations all that you need to do is to compare the win probability to the % of money that you are putting in to the pot. If this ratio is greater than one, your bet will have positive mathematical expectations, and if it is less than one, your bet would have negative mathematical expectations.

and that would be 60%/33% for a ratio of 1.8 and therefor your bet will have positive mathematical expectation and you should make it.


There is of course the probability that your raise will improve your implied odds of playing the hand for profit. Such as obtaining discounted "or a free card or cards on future streets", the possibility that your raise will take the pot immediately, or that your raise will increase the odds that you will be able to take the pot with a future bet. But we will leave those considerations out of our equation, even though they have very significant implications.


Now let's look at the specific question that you asked." Should I raise with my big set into a "made " flush on 6th street ? and if not is there a situation where an increased number of callers would make a raise on 6th a "value" bet.


First what is the probability on sixth street that you will fill your set with the next card. Well if your Kings are live and all three of your kicker cards are totally live you would have 10 outs. So to calculate your fill rate all that you have to do is to remember the probability coefficient for the number of exposed cards. (Since that is a variable let's take an average of four other callers for 24 exposed cards and therefor the probability coefficient would then be 3)


Then to determine your fill probability all you need to do, is to multiply your outs by the coefficient for a fill rate of 30%


So with a 30% fill rate and a pot contribution percentage of 50%

Your profitability ratio is 30%/50% for 3/5 which of course is less than 1 and therefor a raise would never be indicated.


Now lets take your fill probabilities and calculate the probable profitability or losses of raising versus various numbers of

callers.


It of course would be rare to have a house draw with all live outs,so to make our analysis more racialistic lets take the average number of exposed fill cards for 19 to 20 exposed cards of 2.5


Now that would be 7.5 outs times 3 or 21.5% MINUS the small percentage of times that your Kings full would be overdrawn by Aces full Quads or a bigger flush. for 20%


Against 7 opponents 20%/10.2% Ratio is 2 for a positive result

Against 6 opponents 20%/14% Ratio is 1.5 for a positive bet

Against 5 opponents 20%/17% Ratio is 1.2 just barely positive

Against 4 opponents 20%/20% for a neutral bet

Against 3 opponents 20%/25% Ratio is 4/5 which of course is less than one so over your life time if you raised in this situation you would be a net looser.


In summery a good rule to remember is that if you have an average number of dead out cards if your raise is going to have a significant improvement in the monies that you make you want to have 6 callers.And if your have a totally live draw you have to be against 4 opponents , but since not all of your opponents will call your raise you are safer to be against 5.


When you are on 6th street and you "know" you are against a made straight or flush if you aren't looking at a lot of callers you are best to save your bet.


Thank you for raising this important question I hope my explanation on the method for calculating the profitability of flush draws has been helpful.


Most sincerely


Doc AZ

Actually, the easiest way to do this sort of thing is run a hot/cold showdown sim with Poker Probe or Turbo Stud.

Hello, Lin,

What if you only have a pencil and paper?


Sitting Bull