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View Full Version : Any way Kerry can win without FL or OH

Non_Comformist
11-02-2004, 02:43 PM
There is now some mild evidence that Bush is expected to take OH & FL. I'm am talking about Zogby and Contracts both the subjects of previous postings.

Does anyone see a reasonable way for Kerry to win if he loses both of these states?

I don't but I may be biased.
JimBob2232
11-02-2004, 02:52 PM
No, not really. If he lost florida and ohio and won iowa, he would have 259, needing 10 more. This assumes he takes WI, MN, PA, MI and NH. I guess if he takes both nevada and new mexico... or arkansas and either NE or NM he can win..but that is unlikely.

His problem is that he needs to win either FL or OH, while at the same time not losing WI, IA, NH, HI, MN and MI. Bush has more "outs" here...
LaggyLou
11-02-2004, 02:54 PM
No. If Bush wins both Fl and OH he wins. Anyone who spins out some fantasy about VA, CO< or any other red state switch is just engaging in wishful thinking.
Non_Comformist
11-02-2004, 02:55 PM
Agreed, and to me its just seems very unlikey that if he loses both OH & FL, which are suppossed to be highly divided, he would then be able to take mulitple historically Republican states.
JimBob2232
11-02-2004, 03:00 PM
Yeah, mathematically its possible, but mathematially the buffalo bills can make the superbowl
Manimal 42
11-02-2004, 03:03 PM
I agreee that FL and OH going for Bush would almost lock the election but there seems to be some voting time left.

It ain't over until the last lawyer bill is paid ;~)
Dynasty
11-02-2004, 03:06 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone see a reasonable way for Kerry to win if he loses both of these states?

[/ QUOTE ]

Kerry would have to:

1. Win all the 2000 Blue States. I have him projected to lose Iowa and New Mexico. But, it's possible he could hold onto those.

2. Pick up 10 Electoral College votes from Red States. The two most realistic scenarios for doing this would be to win (a) New Hampshire and Arkansas or (b) Missouri.
Dynasty
11-02-2004, 03:27 PM
John Zogby did a great job of calling the final %'s in the national race in both 2000 and 1996. But, his track record on state polling is not as impressive.

Still, it's worth noting that his current prediction (http://www.zogby.com/) is Bush 252, Kerry 252 with both Pennsylvania and Virginia tied.

He's got the odd prediction of Kerry winning Colorado in there. The predicition of the Virgiinia tie is also odd.