Road Trip: Final Report—Foxwoods

[Mark Heide]

On Saturday, I left Atlantic City for Foxwoods. Found a motel called Hilltop Inn & Suites four miles from the casino. Rates were not cheap here, so I decided to check in for two nights and possibly look for something else—it cost me $279 for two nights.

After checking in, drove in to Foxwoods. It was next to impossible to find a parking spot. Plus, the layout of the place is confusing—I felt like a rat in a maze. Finally, I found a space to park. Eventually, I found my way to the poker room, but was disappointed, the waiting lists were too long to get into a game. I then had to search around to find out where they were playing the satellites for the tournament—which were being held in a conference room, downstairs, at the other end of the casino.

I ended up playing two $80 satellites for the $500 No-Limit Tournament for Sunday. The satellite paid $650. On the first satellite I played, I ran into Myrtle who introduced himself to me. I asked Myrtle if he knew John Cole. He was not sure if he remembered him. Anyway, I busted out of the first satellite and made a deal on the second one for $200. So, I'm $40 ahead. After playing, I went to the buffet to eat dinner. Not, a place I'd recommend (unless you like the food that Ray Zee likes—as you know Ray does not have taste buds).

On Sunday, I went back to Foxwoods and entered the $500 No-Limit Tournament. Well, I did pretty well up until 8:20 PM. There were 850 entrants and they were paying 80 places. The monitor screen said that we had 93 players left until I played the following hand. The two players to my left had approximately $6000 in chips left. Both players did not play unless they had a hand like AT or a medium pair or better. I was down to $2200 with the blinds at $600-300 with a $100 ante. Everyone folded to me on the button. I decided that the cards I was holding didn't matter. These guys were not going to risk their chips so close to the money unless they had a real hand, so I pushed in my chips, which was still a big enough raise for neither of them to get involved. The small blind thinks for quite a while, I thought he was going to fold because he thought about it so long, but he calls me. He's got a pair of 9s and I have 68 unsuited. Well, you know what happens. I'm out of there. What a disappointment, to play for over 10 hours and just miss getting into the prize pool.

I decided to call it quits and headed for home on Monday.

Good Luck

Mark

[Easy E]

maybe that's why I don't play in tournaments much

<font color="blue">The two players to my left had approximately $6000 in chips left. Both players did not play unless they had a hand like AT or a medium pair or better. I was down to $2200 with the blinds at $600-300 with a $100 ante. Everyone folded to me on the button.

I decided that the cards I was holding didn't matter. These guys were not going to risk their chips so close to the money unless they had a real hand, so I pushed in my chips, which was still a big enough raise for neither of them to get involved. The small blind thinks for quite a while, I thought he was going to fold because he thought about it so long, but he calls me. He's got a pair of 9s and I have 68 unsuited.</font>

So, you go for a steal from the button, where you are more likely going to be seen as stealing... and you don't even check your cards to see if stealing here has any outs in case two 3x stacks with blind money in already might call you to knock you out, this close to the money.

And this makes sense... as opposed to looking, deciding the play would be more effective with only the new BB to worry about? I think I give up the extra $100 here and wait for another hand.

[sammysusar]

its probably a pretty good play as long as are the assumptions about the players are correct. the likelihood of the fold probably more than compsensates for the 2 - 1 dog he would be against 2 overcards . an overpair is quite unlikely and unlucky to run into.
raising on the button will cause weaker hands to call however in this situation with the stack sizes it souns like these players would have only called with good hands.

[Mark Heide]

Easy E,

My decision for moving all-in on the button is based on several factors, including my opponents understanding of tournament strategy, their quality of play, and what they think I am thinking. First, both opponents appear to understand which hands hold up in a heads up confrontation. The player in the big blind had moved-in in middle position with AQ and doubled up, the small blind had called an all-in with AT and doubled up. So, I estimate that they value ace-anything and pairs as hands that are needed to play in these situations. Since, there are 13 pairs with 6 combinations of each for a total of 78 pair combinations and 12 ace-anything with 16 combinations of each for a total of 192 ace-anything combinations. The 78 pair and 192 ace-anything combinations give a total of 270 playable all-in hands. I believe both of my opponents would put me on one of these hands.

Some other factors to consider is the size of there stacks and how close to the prize money we are. Both the big and small blind had approximately $6000 in chips. For these reasons I believe that they would not risk any chips unless they thought that they had a better hand than me. Let's assume that they both believe I would only make that all-in move with a hand that would play well heads up and assume that 270 possible combinations are one of those hands. I believe that either one of these players would not risk a significant amount of their stack unless they had at least a pair of 8s or higher and AK, AQ, AJ, or AT. If I assume this to be correct, there is only 106 possible combinations they will play. Since, there are a total of 1326 possible card combinations that they can be dealt, each of my opponents has an 8% chance to get a hand that they will play against my possible 20%. The combined chances of both opponents getting a hand they will call me with would be 16%. So, I am an 84% favorite to pick up the pot uncontested. But, in this situation, one of them did pick up that chance and called.

Good Luck

Mark

[Mark Heide]

sammysusar,

I agree. With the most important part being the assumptions about the players. After I was called and turned over my hand, the small blind looked quite surprized that I had a hand as weak as I did. See my post to Easy E for my analysis.

Good Luck

Mark

[Easy E]

Mark, I agree with everything that you said... except for not looking.

I'd even agree that you could look at the 86 and make the same play, since you'd only be a huge dog to overpairs.

But you'd have felt awfully silly (well, maybe only LOOKED that way) if you'd turned over 72. I'd want to at least KNOW how far uphill I might have to climb before making this move.

Part of my reasoning is, it's doesn't seem to be a +EV move, from a cashing perspective (unlike a cash game, where you can consider just the pot). If you lose 16% of the time, you bust out and have nothing. If you win 84%, you probably double up but are still short-stacked with a dozen players to go until getting into the money. Do you really gain over 5:1 with this move, from a financial perspective?

Do you think making this move on the NEXT hand, in the cutoff against a button and SB that you had such a good read on, would be better if you looked and saw the 86o? You'd add the new BB as an additional factor, but unless they were a huge stack, they face the same fears about being crippled and out of the money.

It's the no-look that I disagree with, not making a move with a weak but likely undominated hand.

[B00T]

Correct me if I am wrong but I dont see any reference to him not looking at his hand...

I was under the assumption that he was going to push no matter what he had, but still looked at the cards.

If I saw my opponent pushing without looking at his cards, and I have him covered if I have K10 I am calling...

[Turning Stone Pro]

I found this to be a very nice hotel and a very manageable distance away from F-woods. It does have 24 hr weekend shuttle service every 1/2 hr to the casino.

It was expensive, however, at about $135.00 per night or so, per my recollection.

For those looking for a summer weekend getaway with the significant other, it does make for a nice play to stay. It is close to the casino but convenient to get down to the ocean in the daytime, as well.

TSP

[Easy E]

<font color="blue"> I decided that the cards I was holding didn't matter </font>

And I referred to not seeing the cards in both of my replies.

Mark, did you push in the dark, or did you decide to push, then saw the 86 and pushed anyway?

[Easy E]

Latest Jackpot Jay article on ESPN:

<font color="blue"> I was in the small blind, and I decided, without looking at my cards, that if it was folded around to me, I was going all-in. Not to belabor the obvious, but I figured it was about 3-1 that a random hand would fold in the big blind to an all-in bet -- even for only $8,000 -- and that even if I was called, I'd be, at worst, a 70-30 underdog, as long as the big blind didn't have an overpair and both my cards were live.


Which was almost exactly what happened. Everybody folded, I went all-in .. and the big blind called before I could push my chips toward the pot. Then he turned over 8-8, and I flipped over my hole cards ...<font color="red"> 8-2 unsuited.</font>


Oops.

[Mark Heide]

Easy E,

As always I did look at my cards before I put in my chips. I gave you a Sklanskyish reason why I did. Which means that it takes a much better hand to call in these situations.

Good Luck

Mark

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Mark played the hand perfectly. And his read of the players must have been correct if the guy in the small blind had to think a long time before calling with 99. The only issue if "I" had been the small blind with 99 would have been do I need to reraise to get rid of the big blind. Folding there would never even have crossed my mind.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Easy E]

The main point of my post was based on the fallacy of Mark pushing blind, but evidently it didn't matter if he did or not (as long as he wasn't seen pushing blind)

However, you're telling me it makes sense to risk busting out over a dozen places from the money with ANY cards here? 72o, 35o, T3, etc.

I would assume that you might NOT make the move if you had face-trash, on the risk of being dominated if called? Then again, that doesn't seem to be a consideration in the decision... interesting.

[ohkanada]

I agree there is no reason not to look at your cards. Your opponent might see the non-look. I did the same thing a few years back. I decided if it is folded to me I am going all-in. I look and see 32o. I go all-in, and the BB thought a long time before folding. I went on to get 4th /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Ken

[Greg (FossilMan)]

I have been in spots where I estimated the chances of successfully stealing the blinds/antes was as high as 90%. With a fold coming that often, it becomes correct to do it with any two cards. If they're going to fold that often, the ONLY reason you wouldn't make the move is if an alternate play has even higher +EV.

Later, Greg

[Mark Heide]

Easy E,

I want to make a few points clear. I always look at my cards before making a play whether I'm stealing or have a legit hand, because I do not want to give my opponent a reason to call me. If you want to be a showoff and not look at your hand you are asking to be called.

Secondly, consider I only had $2200 which was a reasonable size raise for a blind of $600. There is already $1900 in the pot and that is what it is costing each player per round. I had been sitting at that table for a round and a half and had not made a move because I didn't get the opportunity, if I had won that hand I could have gone all in again, and maybe with a real hand, and I would be back in business. When I moved all-in, I was sure that they thought I had a legitimate all-in hand, and had estimated the probability of being called as 16%. Well, one of them did call because they were lucky enough to hit that 16% chance of having a hand. The small blind almost didn't play that hand. He thought about it for 30 seconds, before he called. So, right there I knew he had a legitimate hand but not a great hand.

When the blinds and antes are costing you $1900 a round, you have to play situations where you are the favorite. As a matter of fact the odds I was getting on that hand would have almost been just as good as if I had AA under the gun and got called by KK.

In tournaments, you need to estimate what percentage of hands your opponents will call with. I'm not passing up a situation where I have a 66-84% chance to win. Those situations are too good to pass up, and yes, I would have played any hand at this point, because I was such a favorite not to be called. Don't forget you can lose with AA too and be an 84% favorite. I hear that story the most.

Good Luck

Mark

[Mark Heide]

Greg,

I met Myrtle at Foxwoods on Saturday night, but where is John Cole?

Good Luck

Mark

[Easy E]

Mark, I did understand that I was mistaken in you pushing blind.

Here's the question that I still want to ask (that may have been answered and I missed it): Given the situation that you have two players immediately to your left that will fold most hands if you push, you would push with anything since you expect around a 75% chance or so of both folding.

Now, does adding a third person (the new BB, if you move to the cutoff on the next hand) cut down your chance of stealing so much that it's better to push on the button with 72 or 86 (granted, the hands have a fair spread between them in value) than it would be to wait one hand, give up $100 ante and hope for a better hand? I'm assumimg that there is no magic in the fact that the two survivalists are in the blinds currently, when you push on the button.

In Fossilman's words, is waiting a greater EV play than pushing now, or isn't it? You're more likely to get a hand in the cutoff that's higher than your current hand (I believe 86 and lower falls below the median point, am I wrong?) and Mark didn't say anything about the possibility of making a move then.

Sorry to belabour this, but this instinctively didn't seem like a +EV move, given the dozen or so players left to overcome even if you are successful (vs. busting out on the button and having no EV). But I'm not a tournament pro, so I may be playing way too tightly here.

Thanks for the insights.

[SpeakEasy]

[ QUOTE ]
I have been in spots where I estimated the chances of successfully stealing the blinds/antes was as high as 90%. With a fold coming that often, it becomes correct to do it with any two cards. If they're going to fold that often, the ONLY reason you wouldn't make the move is if an alternate play has even higher +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

Greg, are these high-probability steal opportunities primarily a function of (1) position (i.e. on the button vs other positions) or (2) the tendencies of the players in the SB and BB? Is your calculation generally 50% position and 50% player tendencies, or do you give one factor greater weight? How does this calculation change as your position changes? (I am asking about this calculation on the assumption that actual hand strength is irrelevant -- a "pure steal" play.)

Without regard to what the SB held here, I can't get away from the thought that this play has a higher probability of working when you are one or two off the button, because the button is the "obvious" steal position when it is folded to the button and the blinds will give you slightly more credit for a strong hand when you are not in the obvious steal position. I realize your evaluation of the small and big blinds' tendencies are a large component of your estimated chance of stealing (maybe this is half of the calculationfor the probability of stealing). But, setting that factor aside, this would seem to work better one or two before the button, rather than on the button.

I'm not trying second-guess Mark's play here -- I agree it was a good play. I just want additional thoughts on the "high-probability steal" calculation.

[Keats13]

[ QUOTE ]
In Fossilman's words, is waiting a greater EV play than pushing now, or isn't it? You're more likely to get a hand in the cutoff that's higher than your current hand (I believe 86 and lower falls below the median point, am I wrong?) and Mark didn't say anything about the possibility of making a move then.


[/ QUOTE ]

E, your analysis here seems to assume that it will be folded around to you again on the next hand, when you are in the CO. Having slightly better cards on the next hand won't do you much good if there's a raise in front of you.

There's a good chance that he won't see another +EV opportunity before it's too late, let alone a 75% chance to nearly double up uncontested.

If this is 1 or 2 outside the money line, it might be worth hanging tight, but a move is probably going to be needed at some point in order to cash.

Disclaimer: I am by no means a tournament expert, and if I am looking at this wrong, I would greatly appreciate a smackdown from those who are.

[Mark Heide]

Easy E,

If you are in a situation where you are a 2-to-1 favorite, don't you agree that it is a plus EV move and you should play?

If you answered yes to this question, there should be no doubt in your mind that you should play this situation. Since, I analyzed what my opponents would play in this situation, I was able to determine their likelyhood of calling me which was approximately 16%.

I wanted to point out that this is a classic situation where intuitively it feels wrong to make this play, but when you figure out the hand combinations you will sometimes be surprized of what the correct move can be.

Hypothetically, lets say that someone had raised before me and now it is the next hand. Let's say I now have to get past the button, SB, and BB. Well, I already know that if I go all in the button and SB will have an 8% chance each of calling, plus I have to add what the new big blind will do. Let's say that the new BB will play 20% of his hands, so now you have to add the BB, SB, and button which brings the likelyhood of everyone folding 64%. Not, as good. So, it is very important to calculate the range of cards that your opponent will play in these situations.

Note that, waiting another hand could drastically reduce my chances. If someone came in with a raise before I could act, I may have to throw my hand away. In these situations, on average, you end up being a 45-55% favorite with any of the classic all in moves.

Good Luck

Mark

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif..mark

fossil said you done right..

that should settle it..

gl

let's meet in tunica in early jan..i'll buy..gl

/images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/tongue.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

[Mark Heide]

scalf,

The company I work for forces me to use up all of my vacation by the end of the year. I'm skipping Tunica and am going to Vegas in April to probably play a WSOP event, and hang out at Bellagio or Mirage. Drinks are free!

Good Luck

Mark

[Easy E]

going to Vegas in April to probably play a WSOP event

WSOP was moved to July in 2005, unless Harrah's moved it again.

[Easy E]

If you are in a situation where you are a 2-to-1 favorite, don't you agree that it is a plus EV move and you should play?

Certainly on a normal basis, wasn't sure that was true with the added cost of being knocked out with no recourse, on what amounts to mainly a steal bluff.

I wanted to point out that this is a classic situation where intuitively it feels wrong to make this play, but when you figure out the hand combinations you will sometimes be surprized of what the correct move can be.

Yes, this is what I was distracted from back when I thought you were playing blind. In this case, the cards you hold are not part of the calculations.


Hypothetically, lets say that someone had raised before me and now it is the next hand. Let's say I now have to get past the button, SB, and BB. Well, I already know that if I go all in the button and SB will have an 8% chance each of calling, plus I have to add what the new big blind will do. Let's say that the new BB will play 20% of his hands, so now you have to add the BB, SB, and button which brings the likelyhood of everyone folding 64%. Not, as good.
Note that, waiting another hand could drastically reduce my chances.

Yes, my question was around comparing the success rate and EV of moving blind/on any cards vs. potentially a better hand to win with and increased success of winning IF CALLED, which I overrated.

Thanks for all of the follow up