Official Week #9 thread for the "3+1 NFL Challenge"

[Easy E]

Week #9 line

Sun 11/7/04
<font color="blue">Jets vs. Bills +3
Eagles vs. Steelers +1.5
Redskins vs Lions -3.5
Cowboys vs. Bengals +1.5
Raiders vs Panthers -6.5
Cardinals vs. Dolphins -3
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers +3
Bears vs. Giants -9
Seahawks vs. 49ers +6.5
Saints vs Chargers -6
Patriots vs Rams +2.5
Texans vs Broncos -6
Browns vs Ravens -6</font>

Mon 11/8/04
<font color="blue">Vikings vs Colts -6.5</font>

[i]<font color="red"> According to my FBI contacts, Big Al may finally rejoin us this week. Word is that the Fibbies are grilling Big Al and another absent, former champion handicapper over the kidnapping case.

[wuwei]

Chiefs $400
Vikings $300
Bengals $200
Broncos $100

I can't figure out that Chiefs line; it looks like stealing (especially since there's no juice on it). We'll see...

Skol Vikings!

[Ed Miller]

I can't figure out that Chiefs line; it looks like stealing (especially since there's no juice on it). We'll see...

The Chiefs are 3-4 and a three point road favorite. Doesn't seem at all like stealing to me...

[TRWIII]

But then again, theyve scored over 100 points in two weeks. Im not sure at all about this game, but I'dve guessed the spread to have been closer to 7 or so.

TRWIII

[charmy]

$400 Patriots
$300 Jets
$200 Chiefs
$100 Cowboys

Charmy

[ElSapo]

400 Jets
300 Chiefs
200 New England
100 Bears

[NoChance]

Headed to Vegas Friday night from 11/5 thru 11/14 so I have to get these in early this week. Lots to do to get ready for the trip.

$400 Chargers -6
$300 Chiefs -3
$200 Cardinals +3
$100 Cowboys -1.5

I really only like the top 3 picks but since my teams all started with a C, I threw in the Cowboys as well.

Since I wont be able to make it next week, just give me the same list next week but sub in the Colts instead of the Chargers since the Chargers will be in a bye. Heck, I'll probably do better next week! (If you forget, that's fine too)

[Kevmath]

$400 Jets -3
$300 Pats -2.5
$200 Dolphins -3
$100 Chiefs -3

Kevin...

[Ed Miller]

But then again, theyve scored over 100 points in two weeks. Im not sure at all about this game, but I'dve guessed the spread to have been closer to 7 or so.

Everyone tends to overestimate the importance of the most recent results. Don't forget all those games the Chiefs lost, including one to Carolina.

Also, both the last two games were at Arrowhead. KC is traditionally a very strong home team.

Finally, giving three points on the road is pretty damn heavy. Seven points on the road is HUGE. No 3-4 team ever should lay that much wood.

I can't handicap worth beans, but I do know that the lines are good. They are really good. I also know that most people seem to forget completely how close EVERY NFL team is in strength, and how one or two "lucky" events can determine who wins.

The NFL ain't college. No one wins by 66 points. These games are all competitive, and three points on the road is a lot to give.

[wuwei]

Well, there was certainly a bit of hyperbole there, but I do think it's a questionable line.

Home field typically accounts for 3 points of the spread. So this line is telling me that once we've accounted for home field, it's a toss up? The Chiefs are a much better team than the Bucs this year.

The Chiefs are 3-4, but they have won 3 of their last 4 games. They have the 3rd best offense in the league going up against the Bucs 2nd best defense in the league. I'll take the Chiefs in that matchup, especially when you consider that TB is average at best vs. the run. I expect KC to open up a lead and pound the ball with Priest for the rest of the game.

You're right, it's never stealing. But this line looks to be the cream of the crop this week in my book. Lots of upside. Huge upside!

[Easy E]

Week #10
<font color="purple">$400 Colts
$300 Chiefs
$200 Cardinals
$100 Cowboys <font color="black">

Since I wont be able to make it next week, just give me the same list next week but sub in the Colts instead of the Chargers since the Chargers will be in a bye.</font>

I'd be happy to put those in, but are you sure you don't want to just skip a week if you can't make it back by noon on Sunday 11/14?

[Aces McGee]

[ QUOTE ]
Home field typically accounts for 3 points of the spread. So this line is telling me that once we've accounted for home field, it's a toss up

[/ QUOTE ]

If home field truly does account for 3 points on the spread, wouldn't this line be telling you that the Chiefs would be 6 pt favorites on a neutral field?

-McGee

[SossMan]

Looks like a lot of strong plays this week, but I'll stick to what I know:

$400 - Panthers
$300 - Chargers
$200 - Jets
$100 - Pats

[NoChance]

This is just for fun anyway. I appreciate all the effort you have put into this. I wanted to post those picks for week 10 "blind" just for fun to see how it goes.

The way you have it listed there is perfect for week 10. It was either that or throw darts. Either way I'm good.

[wuwei]

You are correct, sir /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Go Chiefs, even if I'm a dumbass!

[bugstud]

time to gaaaaaaaamboooooooooool

400 - Ravens
300 - Cardinals
200 - Chargers
100 - daaaaaa Bears

[LockForward]

$400 Jets -3
$300 Lions -3.5
$200 Chargers -6
$100 Cardinals +3

[justin D]

400 Eagles
300 Cardinals
200 Chiefs
100 Bears

[jonog]

400 Chargers
300 Eagles
200 Ravens
100 Dolphins

[jamesburke]

400-jets
300-chiefs
200-seahawks
100-texans

[MicroBob]

400 - Chiefs -3
300 - Texans +6
200 - Patriots -2.5
100 - Colts +6.5

[judgesmails]

Chiefs -3 400
Seahawks -6.5 300
Steelers +1.5 200
Bengals +1.5 100

[AdamK]

400 Colts
300 Giants
200 Redskins
100 Rams

Cheers Adam

[Raiser]

Week 2 for me. Hopefully I don't put up a goose egg this time /images/graemlins/smile.gif

$400 Chiefs
$300 Jets
$200 Giants
$100 Colts

[Easy E]

<font color="blue">Hopefully I don't put up a goose egg this time</font>

It takes weeks of practice to be able to perfect this talent

[Beerfund]

hold on, let me crap something out..... /images/graemlins/mad.gifughghhghghghghg

PLOP! /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

$400- Giants -9
$300- Cardinals +3
$200- Patriots -2.5
$100- Seahawks - 6.5

i'll whipe with my tickets from last week /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[junkmail3]

$400 Chiefs +3
$300 Bears -9
$200 Vikings -6.5
$100 Saints -6

-Cheifs will get there.
-NYG put up good numbers against a good offense (bad D, but hey), this O is bad.
-Vikings will miss #1 &amp; #2 WR = ouch.
-SD looked reeealll good last week, Saints can't stop that O.

[Easy E]

[ QUOTE ]
$400 Chiefs +3
$300 Bears -9
$200 Vikings -6.5
$100 Saints -6

-Cheifs will get there.
-NYG put up good numbers against a good offense (bad D, but hey), this O is bad.
-Vikings will miss #1 &amp; #2 WR = ouch.
-SD looked reeealll good last week, Saints can't stop that O.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your comments on the Giants, Vikes and Chargers make no sense when compared to your picks. You also have the wrong spreads for several picks, not that it matters.

I'm guessing you meant this:
<font color="red">$400 Chiefs +3
$300 Giants -9
$200 Colts -6.5
$100 Chargers -6 </font>

Confirm these changes, or you'll be an unhappy camper (or a disguised genious) come Tuesday

[junkmail3]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$400 Chiefs +3
$300 Bears -9
$200 Vikings -6.5
$100 Saints -6

-Cheifs will get there.
-NYG put up good numbers against a good offense (bad D, but hey), this O is bad.
-Vikings will miss #1 &amp; #2 WR = ouch.
-SD looked reeealll good last week, Saints can't stop that O.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your comments on the Giants, Vikes and Chargers make no sense when compared to your picks. You also have the wrong spreads for several picks, not that it matters.

I'm guessing you meant this:
<font color="red">$400 Chiefs +3
$300 Giants -9
$200 Colts -6.5
$100 Chargers -6 </font>

Confirm these changes, or you'll be an unhappy camper (or a disguised genious) come Tuesday

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, see I never knew how to do this. Though I haven't really looked into, and can't since I'm at work (They don't know '2+2', but they know "How to bet on sports." Ha.)

I assumed that my picks meant,
Chiefs win by more than 3
Bears lose by more than 9
Vikings lose by more than 6.5
Saints lose by more than 6

[Victor]

400 CHIEFS -3
300 PATS -2.5
200 TEXANS +6
100 BUNGLES +1.5

[Easy E]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
$400 Chiefs +3
$300 Bears -9
$200 Vikings -6.5
$100 Saints -6

-Cheifs will get there.
-NYG put up good numbers against a good offense (bad D, but hey), this O is bad.
-Vikings will miss #1 &amp; #2 WR = ouch.
-SD looked reeealll good last week, Saints can't stop that O.

[/ QUOTE ]

Your comments on the Giants, Vikes and Chargers make no sense when compared to your picks. You also have the wrong spreads for several picks, not that it matters.

I'm guessing you meant this:
<font color="red">$400 Chiefs +3
$300 Giants -9
$200 Colts -6.5
$100 Chargers -6 </font>

Confirm these changes, or you'll be an unhappy camper (or a disguised genious) come Tuesday

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, see I never knew how to do this. Though I haven't really looked into, and can't since I'm at work (They don't know '2+2', but they know "How to bet on sports." Ha.)

I assumed that my picks meant,
Chiefs win by more than 3
Bears lose by more than 9
Vikings lose by more than 6.5
Saints lose by more than 6

[/ QUOTE ]

My listing is the correct way to do it. You pick the team that you expect to cover and the point spread they have to cover (or get to work with, for your Chiefs pick)
It's the same way you'd make a bet on it "I'll take the Giants and give 9 points"

Good thing I caught this! I'm putting you in for
<font color="green">$400 Chiefs +3
$300 Giants -9
$200 Colts -6.5
$100 Chargers -6

[Raiser]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="blue">Hopefully I don't put up a goose egg this time</font>

It takes weeks of practice to be able to perfect this talent

[/ QUOTE ]

This rookie definitely lacks the skills /images/graemlins/smile.gif But it's fun and this is a cheap way to get better.

[DOTTT]

$400 Jets
$300 Chargers
$200 Chiefs
$100 Broncos

[Gallopin Gael]

It can't get any worse...

$400 - KC +3
$300 - SEA -6.5
$200 - MIN +6.5
$100 - DET -3.5

[Lottery Larry]

$400 Colts
$300 Lions
$200 Chiefs
$100 Steelers

[junkmail3]

Let it be known, that in my constant confusion and learning of this thing, I want:

$400 Chiefs -3
(my other picks)

Meaning (for my own sake) that the chiefs will score 4 or more points more than the Bucs. If that is not what my line means, that i want want it to mean. An example final score would be: Chiefs 28 Bucs 24.

(Thanks, and sorry for the confusion. Next week won't be so bad.)

[coolhandkuhn]

Chiefs 400
Jets 300
Patriots 200
Chargers 100

[jpg777]

Special birthday selections. 4-0 guaranteed.

$400 Eagles
$300 Chiefs
$200 Lions
$100 Rams

[kdog]

I hate the card this week.

$400 Seahawks -6.5
$300 Dolphins -3
$200 Browns +6
$100 Broncos -6

[ihaterivers]

$400 Rams
$300 Redskins
$200 Seahawks
$100 Chiefs

[Shoe]

$400 Seahawks -6.5
$300 Browns +6
$200 Texans +6
$100 Chargers -6

[Rutis]

$400 Dolphins
$300 Chargers
$200 Buccaneers
$100 Lions

[Easy E]

<font color="blue">Let it be known, that in my constant confusion and learning of this thing, I want:

$400 Chiefs -3 </font>

It doesn't matter what you WANT, it matters what you GOT... and that's exactly what you got as soon as you picked the Chiefs.

<font color="blue">Meaning (for my own sake) that the chiefs will score 4 or more points more than the Bucs. If that is not what my line means, that i want want it to mean. An example final score would be: Chiefs 28 Bucs 24.

(Thanks, and sorry for the confusion. Next week won't be so bad.) </font>

Exactly correct, and no worries, mate.

[Lottery Larry]

shuffle the order a little
$400 Colts
$300 Chiefs
$200 Steelers
$100 Lions

[johnd192]

400 Chiefs
300 Jets
200 Cardinals
100 Chargers

[Papa_G]

$400 Giants -9
$300 Lions -3.5
$200 Colts -6.5
$100 Rams +2.5

[TradeRounds]

400 Patriots
300 Jets
200 Chiefs
100 Texans

[bosoxfan]

I really don't like the games this week. But I liked them last week and that got me 400 in the hole so maybe it's a ggod sign. Wow i just gave myself a headache. Here goes:

400 Chargers -6
300 Chiefs -3
200 Vikings +6.5
100 Cards +3

[DOJ Antitrust]

$400 - KC
$300 - SDG
$200 - HOU
$100 - STL

[Vaughn]

$400 - Chiefs -3
$300 - Redskins +3.5
$200 - Chargers -6
$100 - Raiders +6.5

Vaughn

[mikelow]

After two straight 1-3s, here I go:

$400--Texans +6 (I'm a believer(
$300--Cowboys +1.5
$200--Steelers +1.5
$100--Chiefs -3

[Rick Diesel]

$400 - Steelers +1.5
$300 - Jets -3
$200 - Chiefs -3
$100 - Cardinals +3

Rick Diesel

[DCIAce]

$400 - Colts -6.5
$300 - Jets -3
$200 - Patriots -2.5
$100 - Chargers -6

..I absolutely hate this week. I've been doing well in my Pick'em league the last few weeks, too. I figure I'll go 12-2, 8-6, 9-5... followed by maybe a 5-9 this week. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[swimfan]

$400 - Patriots -2.5
$300 - Chiefs -3
$200 - Eagles -1.5
$100 - Cowboys -1.5

All favored and away, 0-4 here I come.

[Big Al]

400: Denver
300: Cinncy
200: Indy
100: Philly

[B00T]

Cheifs $400
Jets $300
Patriots $200
Lions $100

[kyro]

This season started out so promising too...

$400 - Jets
$300 - Chiefs
$200 - Cowboys
$100 - Raiders

[Paul78]

$400 Browns
$300 Cowboys
$200 Lions
$100 Patriots

[beerbandit]

400 Chargers
300 Dolphins
200 Colts
100 Lions

Gotta go with the home teams this week
good luck everyone


Cheers
Beer

[Aces McGee]

I like about 7 games this week, and my biggest problem so far in this challenge has been losing the big money games, so this is extra tough for me this week.

$400 Chiefs +3
$300 Raiders +6.5
$200 Rams +2.5
$100 Bengals +1.5

<font color="red"> Chiefs </font> KC's on a roll that I don't expect to stop against a team like Tampa Bay.

<font color="red"> Raiders </font> Ewwwwwwww. But I don't think Carolina should be favored by 6.5 points over anyone, with all the injuries they've had.

<font color="red"> Rams </font> Surprised at how much action the Pats are getting. Reacting to the first loss in a long time is always difficult, and with all the injuries the Pats have in the defensive backfield, the Greatest Show on Turf should have a field day, particularly coming off a bye week. I should have this game higher, but the Rams are so inconsistent.

<font color="red"> Colts </font> Indy really needs a win. Minny does too, but their hoss will be out or severely limited. This is merely the $100 game just in case Randy is able to play.

Others considered were:
Dolphins -3 (really worried about picking the Dolphins to win a game), Bengals +1.5 (ditto), and49ers +6.5 (if Rattay starts, I think this is a good play, but if Dorsey goes, Seattle's run D should take away SF's only weapon, Barlow).

-McGee

[scalf]

/images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif finally the week that it all fits..

fwiw..i love jets; but cannot play big al's shoe-in as first pik

therefore..

400 giants
330 jets a lock type game
s.d chargers 200
100 t.bay

gl

4-4

cya

lol

/images/graemlins/blush.gif

[pudley4]

400 Ravens
300 Chargers
200 Rams
100 Giants

[BellyBuster7]

$400 Eagles
$300 Broncos
$200 Chiefs
$100 Bengals

[Porcupine]

Going for my 3rd scalf in a row:

400: Steelers +1.5
300: Giants -9
200: Chiefs -3
100: Jets -3

[Ed Miller]

$400 Rams +2.5
$300 Bills +3
$200 Broncos -6
$100 Redskins +3.5

[TRWIII]

Sighs, lets see if I can get back on the right track.

$400 Jets -3
$300 Lions -3.5
$200 Chargers -6
$100 49ers +6.5

Heres to hoping for a comeback week.

TRWIII

[babigm]

400 Jets
300 Colts
200 Browns
100 Seahawks

If I have another crappy week in a row I'm going to have to start fading myself. Even more respect to Big Al for being so good for so long (can't take his pick this week though, refuse to bet against my team).

[Barry_G]

400 Chiefs
300 Jets
200 Cowboys
100 Patriots

[ftball0000]

400 Giants
300 Bills
200 Rams
100 Raiders

Thanks,
-Ftball

[eggzz]

$400 Steelers
$300 Buccaneers
$200 Broncos
$100 Rams

[natedogg]

$400 Rams
$300 Dolphins
$200 Broncos
$100 Bucs

natedogg

[Bob L]

1.Chiefs -3 $400
2.Seahawks -6.5 $300
3.Colts -6.5 $200
4.Bengals +1.5 $100

[Easy E]

$400 bet Colts
$300 bet Chargers
$200 bet Jets
$100 bet Broncos

[lorinda]

$400 Bears +9
$300 Eagles -1.5
$200 Patriots -2.5
$100 Buccs +3

Lori

[lorinda]

Okay, what's going on?

Why is everyone picking that team whose only road win was a squeaker against Baltimore?

I might be new to this, but there is one mantra I learned very early.
"Chiefs, Road, Suck, Chiefs, Road, Suck"

Lori

[New York Jet]

New York Jet +$1,100 (19-12-1)

<font color="blue">
$400 Chiefs -3.0
$300 Jets -3.0
$200 Seahawks -6.5
$100 Colts -6.5
</font>

[cnfuzzd]

400 Chiefs (ugh)
300 Jets (ugh)
200 patriots (ugh)
100 dallas (ugh)


peace

john nickle

[MrDannimal]

400 - Colts
300 - Texans
200 - Ravens
100 - Rams

[CarlSpackler]

400 Rams +2.5
300 Broncos -6
200 Colts -6.5
100 Bengals +1.5

[tubbyspencer]

Eagles $400
Jets $300
Cowpokes $200
Chiefs $100

tubby

[Easy E]

gl

[eggzz]

[ QUOTE ]
400 Chiefs (ugh)
300 Jets (ugh)
200 patriots (ugh)
100 dallas (ugh)



[/ QUOTE ]

Here's hoping you go 4-ugh- and 0!

[lorinda]

I'm in real trouble today, but I will just add one thing.

Chiefs, Road, Suck.

Remember those words.

Lori

[cnfuzzd]

well, doesnt look like it. Where was lorinda when i was making my picks....

peace

john nickle

[jpg777]

[ QUOTE ]
Special birthday selections. 4-0 guaranteed.

$400 Eagles
$300 Chiefs
$200 Lions
$100 Rams

[/ QUOTE ]

My 3+1 picks have become a disgrace to the community.

[Easy E]

as soon as you invoked the "Birthday Rule".

Hope your birthday went better than this did.

[Aces McGee]

Easy E

Looks like I screwed my picks up this week...I picked the Bengals but had an explanation for the Colts. I was seesawing back and forth between the two. Anyway, could you let me know what my official entry is? I'm assuming it's the Bengals.

-McGee

[Easy E]

Yes, you had the Bengals, because I completely missed the fact that your description didn't go with any of your picks.

At least the mistake was in your favor. You needed the $100.

[lorinda]

My 3+1 picks have become a disgrace to the community.

It's interesting how all the big hitters seem to have more 0-4 weeks than the punters like myself.
They all seem to do better in the long run of course, but it does seem odd that they seem to pick higher varience, although generally winning choices.
Mathematically this shouldn't be possible, but it certainly seems to happen a lot.

Lori

[bugstud]

[ QUOTE ]
time to gaaaaaaaamboooooooooool

400 - Ravens
300 - Cardinals
200 - Chargers
100 - daaaaaa Bears

[/ QUOTE ]

shazam, mofo!

mental note: bet these picks

[wuwei]

http://www.jhhuebert.com/itsatrap.jpg

Ed was on top of this one.

[eggzz]

At brief glance, it looks like the two plus two community lost an awful lot of money this week, and were especially hard hit by the Jets and the Chiefs. Almost everyone had at least one of these teams. I got sucked in by the Rams, probably third on the list of trap games this week, of which there were quite a few.

Chiefs - Biggest trap, based on their 100 point output the last two weeks.

Jets - Trap number two - their offense was almost sickeningly predictable, if you watched this game.

Rams - Trap number three - as good as New England is, why can't I bring myself to bet this team? I know, I'm too much of a contrarian, thats why.

Lions - Trap number four - not many people even touched this game, but I believe the public was on the side of the Lions, and so was I until Kdog advised me that I.M. Bettor was on the Skins. (there was a thread about this guy recently, he is a contrarian handicapper who has a weekly column in the Boston Herald on Fridays. Pitt and Wash were his selections this week).

To a lesser extent, it seems that the undefeated Eagles were also a trap game. I don't think this team has played as well as their previously unbeaten record warrants. They've been doing it with smoke and mirrors, and Pittsburgh exposed that. They certainly are not a bad team, just not an excellent one.

There was a lot of deception out there this week, hope you were able to side step most of it.