Just HOW carefull on the bubble with short stacks

[stupidsucker]

Without posting the entire hand, because it doesnt matter. I am looking mainly at any situation like this.

Blinds are 200-400

Stack sizes are

UTG 5500ish
Hero 1600ish
SB 300ish after posting SB
BB short and forced all in on BB


UTG has been medium aggressive. He has stolen here and there but is careful not to get too reckless because there are 2 shorts.

He min raises and I hold AQo. Whats your play?

I cold call it.

Flop is ATx rainbow. UTG checks ... Hero????

Now here is the thing... If I push and get called then I only have to beat one of the 2 opponents in order to NOT finish ITM. If I beat the BBshort then I am guaronteed at least 3rd. If BB wins then I still gain more then just checking it down.

BUT...

Is having 2 very short stacks even worth seeing the flop?
if so should I just check it down here? What do I do if UTG sets me all in?

I was pretty sure I did it fine on the flop, Preflop is questionable. I wouldnt even ask but it did happen. Its very tempting to complain about how happend, but I am trying to set an example about beat posts. (The beat isnt the issue the play is the question)

I hate making newbiew mistakes, and I am curious if I made one, or if I made the right play still going for 1st place when I have a good hand.


Bad luck or bad play?

[lorinda]

I push here preflop.

Firstly you should probably finish above the BB in most scenarios anyway... if UTG beats my AQ, he should beat the allin guy too.

Secondly the SB might fold and hope to get into the money.
People make funny mistakes when simultaneous knockouts get involved.

Lori

[Irieguy]

This is a great situational post. There should probably be more of these.

I like Lori's answer... but I'm not sure it's the best way to handle this situation. Bigstack's min raise is probably just a plain old value bet. He's just notifying you that he has enough of a hand to take out the BB... likely ace high or a king... there's a chance to play some poker here.

I'd probably reraise the minimum here... and I don't think I've ever typed that phrase before. But you really have a nice little situation. You're most likely well ahead of both your opponents, the SB almost certainly folds here despite the price, and you have a chance to squeeze a few hundred more out of the big stack... all with relatively little risk of busting 4th. You didn't state exactly what the blinds were, but I'm assuming this leaves you with a little bit to bet on the flop to pick up the side pot if big stack feels hopeless.

There's a couple of other ways to do something, here, too; but your situation is pretty favorable. If I did cold-call preflop, I probably wouldn't get too cute after the flop. Hope to get lucky and induce a bluff from the big stack if I hit my miracle straight or something.

Sounds like I would have gone broke too, and lori's line is probably the best in this particular case... but I think more often than not you can get some value $$ out of the big stack. If you're trapped preflop, at least you don't get 4th.

Irieguy

[stupidsucker]

Here was my exact line of thinking.

If I cold call then miss the flop badly I can get out if UTG bets and I still have a decent amount of chips. I will call any ace flop or Qhigh flop if the BB UTG out. Most likely if I miss UTG will check down anyways.

I thought this was the best line for maximizing chip EV while still allowing for better survival.

[stripsqueez]

i push pre-flop

something very bad has to happen for me to finish worse than third - i could of folded and been a big chance at second but if i have aspirations to win (and i do) this is an auto push

stripsqueez - chickenhawk

[Smoothcall]

what a great post there are so many scenario's that could happen for the button and the sb that i'm not sure what the right play is for either of them.

[Gramps]

I think it's a push or fold situation...

...let's say you call, SB folds, and BB is all-in. You now have 800ish chips left. There's a > 800 chip side pot between just you and UTG. 2/3 of the time, you will be sitting there with Ace high on the flop. If UTG has any brains (which he may or may not), it's in his best interest to bet into you even if he has crap, to be the big stack bully and win side pot (getting 2:1 or so on his minimum bet)...and now you're down to 800 ish and may have folded the best hand (3-way or vs. UTG)...and you've lost any fold equity you had with 1600 chips, and 3rd isn't even a lock (if BB beats UTG) with 600 worth of blinds looming.

If you push, the odds aren't great of a random hand beating AQo and AQo losing to UTG (who could mini-raise with a pretty wide range here). Some benefit in that if you beat both, or beat UTG only, you have a good chunk of chips and have a real shot to get HU and win...

...but I don't think there's much shame in folding b/c it almost guarantees you your 20% payout (with a great shot at a 30% payout), winning the hand isn't going to go that far towards getting you first (you have to beat two players to double up + slight overlay to get to 1/3 of the chips in play), you still have some fold equity if you fold and there may very well be a player knocked out here...sure, winning is good, but maximizing ROI is the goal, and sometimes the max EV$ play involves taking a more conservative route...

...but I'm pretty split between either course here (push or fold)...don't think either is bad play on these facts...

[Smoothcall]

Gramps i agree with you it is a possible fold very close decision. But if you can push you can call. Your reasoning that he would bet you off on flop could be prevented easily. Just decide to call if he puts you all in on flop. But if he checks the flop you have options you could bet cause you probbaly have him and can maybe get him off the hand if he totally misses or you could check it down to have 2 shots to take bb out. But this is a great question as i dont know which is better playing or folding. Even the sb had tough decision as to whether to call or not. Should he call and have 3 chances to knock other guy out plus the pot odds if he won the hand as by holding he really almost gives up any chance of winning tournament, but could get second if he folds and could go busted out 4th if he calls. Tough decisions. Great post.

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
Now here is the thing... If I push and get called then I only have to beat one of the 2 opponents in order to NOT finish ITM. If I beat the BBshort then I am guaronteed at least 3rd. If BB wins then I still gain more then just checking it down.


[/ QUOTE ]

BTW I worded this wrong, but I think everyone understood.

I am glad that people got something out of this post. The beat put me semi on tilt I guess, so I questioned what I can look back on as an easy choice. I chose to cold call because UTG had not shown me he knew how to be a big stack at all, and I thought I could out play him at the flop.

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Now here is the thing... If I push and get called then I only have to beat one of the 2 opponents in order to NOT finish ITM. If I beat the BBshort then I am guaronteed at least 3rd. If BB wins then I still gain more then just checking it down.


[/ QUOTE ]

BTW I worded this wrong, but I think everyone understood.

I am glad that people got something out of this post. The beat put me semi on tilt I guess, so I questioned what I can look back on as an easy choice. I chose to cold call because UTG had not shown me he knew how to be a big stack at all, and I thought I could out play him at the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

With a stack of T800 and a pot of T2000ish after you cold call preflop you really cant out play anyone on the flop to be honest.

[Gramps]

I'm still not seeing much benefit in just calling vs. pushing.

I think if you push, UTG will call (given his great pot odds), so you'll still have two shots at knocking out BB going the push route. Same benefit there as if you call and UTG behaves and checks it down (without the risk of being bet off the best hand).

And if UTG might fold PF if your push, you really, really want that, b/c then you'll win 400-BB stack for free, AND get a shot to knock out BB (with AQ against a random hand + pick up BB stack X 2 worth of chips)...and if you lose, the SB is still on life support (if he folds), and BB ain't in great shape either.

With AQo, another problem with just calling is you don't want to give UTG the option to bow out on the flop is he misses for his 800+ remaining chips. If you're committing 800 chips PF, you want to be able to.

And the whole thing of wasting 800 chips and still getting pushed off the best hand...but if you're going to call an all-in bet from UTG on the flop anyway...I'd rather commit UTG PF as AQ does well vs. his range of likely hands (and the odds of UTG being behind on the flop (where he'd fold to your all-in bet), then catching up the last two cards AND losing to BB who beats you and UTG both, thus knocking you out in 4th...isn't very good).

[Smoothcall]

You said you would like it if he folds preflop. but why wouldn't you like it if he folds on flop which is more possible if he misses completely then expecting him to fold preflop. So still get the side pot and stil have chance of knocking out bb. Why wouldn't you wan't to bow out if he misses.

[Gramps]

B/C if he folds pre-flop, he got to see zero of 5 community cards before making his folding decision.

If I just call, UTG has the privilege of seeing 3 cards for free (costing nothing beyond the 800 he's already put in), and then he can decide whether or not he'd like to commit the rest of his chips with this additional (free) information to work with (what are 3 of the 5 community cards, and how does his hand do with them).

Plus, if he folds pre-flop, he's probably not a huge dog to AQ (even against a random hand, AQo is only about a 2:1 favorite). However, if he misses the flop (no pair, not a good draw), then he's probably a much bigger dog to AQ (so you're not as worried about him staying in til showdown with only two cards to come), and maybe even a huge dog if you've flopped a pair and he has nothing...at that point you want those extra 800+ chips in play - and no pair/not a good draw is probably the only time UTG is folding on the flop anyhow.

[Smoothcall]

but he will call preflop anyway so you give him the priveldge of seeing 2 free cards by moving in preflop where it would be more possible imo for him to fold than prefop. What if he had j10s flop is k,8,6 one of his suit. He might fold here and would want him to cause the extra 800 i could pick up isn't nearly worth him calling and hitting a 6 outer to j10 or his runner straight or flush draw and busting me. And even if he folds and bb wins your still fine cause you won the side pot. What if you kept leader in moving in and he beats you and bb beats him that would be a disaster which sounds like what happened to him.

All these decisions are close though and are not gonna cost you much in any of the 3 ways you play it, moving in calling or folding, but makes for an interesting post.