Semi-bluff Raising A Belly Buster

Hello, Players!

P1 always semi-bluff raises an inside str. draw on 4th.,5th.,or6th.

He then drives it to 6th. Str. if he connects with the draw on 4th or 5th. If he connects with the draw on 6th.,he drives it to 7th. If he completes his belly buster on 7th.,he bets;otherwise,he checks. The field knows he is capable of this play.


Under what condition(s) will this strategy produce a long term positive expectation in low limit stud ?


in 20-40 middle limit stud?


Sitting Bull

If player 1 always semi-bluff raises with a gut-shot, it would seem unlikely this player will ever make it to 20-40. It would seem unlikely this player will ever beat 1-3..


Semi-bluff raising is a powerfull tool. I use it all the time. Never with a gut shot though. ( unless I have 2 high pair, four flush, or something to that effect )


I can't see this as anything but negative EV. ( unless used VERY sparingly against very timid opponents )


Later,


CJ

Dear CJ,

You hit the bull's eye !


There is a player in my 1-5 stud game who plays this way. She donates about 300-400 per week in our game.


Sitting Bull

Very effective play in stud8 with a made low. In high only it's suicide.

Dear Sitting Bull,

In Dave Sklansky's "classic" work "The Theory of Poker" (which I sincerely hope you know throughly : and if not, soon will )

He states (pp 85 lines 7-11) " I define a semi bluff as a hand which if called, does not figure to be the best hand at the moment but, ( and here is the key to the principle) Has A Reasonable Chance of out drawing those hands that initialy called it. The classic example would be raising heads up with an exposed ace and a small pair against a pair smaller than the aces. Here the semibluffer may win the hand immediatly, if the opponent throws away his hand, or may get future cards for free or at a discounted price, or his hand may become the best hand. Here the probability of the bluffer's hand going on to two pair (if his pair cards are live) is 62% (see Konstantine Othmer's book pp.87 "Seven card stud poker" (ps. if you don't own a copy of this excellent book get one.)

Now the problem with your friend P1's move is that it usualy doesn't have a reasonable chance to go on to become the best hand. See Ottmer ( pp 195) where he compairs the winability of an inside straight in a four way hand versus two big pair hands and a flush draw. Note that the inside straight will win only 15% of the time , the 4 flush 44%, the Queens 13%, and the Aces 28% of the time. Now for the straight to even break even mathmaticaly it has to win 25% of the time, since he is putting 25% of the money into the pot. So here P1 would be bluffing with a hand ,which not only doesn not have a reasonable chance of becoming the best hand, but which is a hand with significant mathmatical expectation of loosing money (see Mohammad Mohmmad's)work on calculating the winability of various stud hands.


There is an old saying "the last thing I want is to be heads up with a 4 straight draw versus a pair of Aces, but here you are contemplating an even worse senerio, that of having an inside straight draw. From fourth street on, your hand goes from one with an unaceptable winn ability to raise to one which becomes progressively worse. On fifth it has only a 20% fillability "if it's totaly live, down to 10% with 2 cards out. ( see Ottmer pp 204). Sixth street fillability 12% totaly to 3% (page 214).My attitude with this hand, is that I almost never am going to raise unless possibly, I were against one opponent who is terrified of my raises (who are few and far between) and I know he'll throw his hand away. Otherwise my goal, if I play the hand ( and if it appears that I am against flush draws and bigger straight draws,or paired door cards, I very well may drop this dog. I didn't in this situation one time last week and ended up making the hand and loosing a stack of chips )to play it as cheaply as possible.


So if you know of a player that uses the tecnique you described "don't wise him up." He is going to be a long term looser at $10-$20 or $15-$30. And it's also a bad move at the lower limits because at the low levels it almost imposible to get the table to drop, so you loose one of the main reasons to semi bluff. So if you were to bluff raise all you would have done, is to increase the amount of money you will loose in the long run. Remember: WHEN YOU SEE A PLAYER WIN ,BY MAKING A BAD MOVE 3 TIMES IN A ROW , IN THE LONG RUN HE WILL ALWAYS LOOSE ".


My old friend Bud (who has been playing poker for 50 years) lost a hand like the one you described, to a young jammer. After the jammer raked in the pot, he ask Bud what he thought of his move. Bud said "just promise me that you will keep making it!!


"Good luck..Favors the prepared mind" Most sincerely,


Doc AZ

I cant imagine such a strategy ever producing a positive expectation.


Pat

Dear Doc,

Thanks for your complete analysis of the belly buster strategy.

There is a young senior who's 88 years old in our 1-5 stud game who always makes this play. She is quite a lady!

Her objective in playing is to have fun--not to win.

Of course, she losses about 600.00 per week in the game.

Yes,Doc, I do have both of these excellent books .


Happy pokering,


Sitting Bull