Will it be close?

[LinusKS]

Until recently, I thought along with everyone else, that it would be close.

I'm starting to question that.

Click here (http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html) for a pretty good analysis of the likely effect of new voters and undecideds on the election.

[Nicholasp27]

well, i read that kerry is up 5% amongst early voters in swing states like florida

[mikech]

Gallup reports that 30% of registered voters in Florida have already voted, and Kerry leads 54%-46%.

[Nepa]

It's not going to be close. Kerry is going to hit the trifecta, PA OH and FLA.

[largeeyes]

So, are you guys putting your money where your mouth(and hearts) are and betting this way?

[Nepa]

[ QUOTE ]
So, are you guys putting your money where your mouth(and hearts) are and betting this way?

[/ QUOTE ]

I won't bet on this election for the same reason that I don't bet on boxing.

[largeeyes]

You think the election is fixed?

All this "blah blah will happen". We're all(90%?) gamblers, so noone should have an issue with laying some green. I think if you got the guts to bet it, you really believe it.

[LinusKS]

I got Kerry back when he was at 1.5:1.

I'm wishing I'd put more money on him, though.

[largeeyes]

[ QUOTE ]
I got Kerry back when he was at 1.5:1.

I'm wishing I'd put more money on him, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, it will be as worthless as the 1:1 if he loses. If you are sure he will win, why not put more on him now at the 1.1:1 or whatever the current odds are?

[largeeyes]

[ QUOTE ]
Gallup reports that 30% of registered voters in Florida have already voted, and Kerry leads 54%-46%.

[/ QUOTE ]

But wouldn't you think that these most motivated of people are going to lean Kerry anyways?

[LinusKS]

You can't have it both ways, largeeyes.

If you're relying on "unmotivated voters" to keep Bush in, you're stretching it pretty thin.