5-10 Stud Hand--Another tough decision on 6th

Playing 5-10 stud home game ($1 ante, no bring in, high card checks or bets). I have (5,Q) Q and bet. All fold to a generally sensible player who has somewhat of a weakness for draws. This player has a 4 up. He calls, lamenting that he should probably fold.


3rd Street: I put him on 4's or a 3-flush or two buried big cards.


4th Street


Me (5,Q) Q 6


Him (x,x) 4s 8s


I bet, he calls. I am thinking 4 flush now, as he would probably fold overcards at this point. A pair of 4's is a possibility still with a 3 flush now maybe.


5th Street


Me (5,Q) Q 6 6


Him (x,x) 4s 8s 2s


I'm liking this hand less and less as it progresses. I bet, he calls.


6th Street


Me (5,Q) Q 6 6 9


Him (x,x) 4s 8s 2s 10s


Here is the turning point in the hand I think. Count and Patrick would have me bet here. But how can I bet? I have only 1 spade in my hand and can only recall seeing another 1 up on third. If I bet, I will likely get raised either way and I'm pretty sure I need a boat to win this. I check. He bets. I call. Here is where I think I cost myself tons of money. I am 90% sure I'm beat right now, should I fold despite the chance of drawing to the boat (pretty live cards). The reason I think I should fold is that if I miss the boat (most likely scenario), I will feel compelled to call a river bet because I have gone this far. It is the difference between losing $20 and losing $40. Those Jacksons sure do add up at the end of the year. So what's the answer?


River


I check and call. Results at bottom of this post.


Result: He turns over a 5-card flush that he claims to have had (and I believe him) on sixth street to beat my unimproved 2-pair.


Jeff

Dear Jeff,

You're a 10 to 1 dog to fill on 7Th St.

Since there is a 90% chance that you are beat, you should fold

on 6th. St. unless the pot is about 100.00.


Sitting Bull

How does this differ from my last hand where you told me to keep betting on 6th? It seems very likely he could have the wheel on 6th, but you and Patrick seem to advocate me betting. This is not to be critical, I really want to improve my game and see the logic behind 6th street play on both of these hands. The reason I questioned that play was because you would be put in a tough situation if raised on 6th; you thought if I checked I wouldn't know where I'm at. I'm just interested in the thought process here.


Jeff (who might have to start waiting tables if his bad streak doesn't turn around QUICK)

Hi Jeff,

The difference in the two hands is this.


If you check on 6th in this hand, the 4 flush will always put the money in the middle, whether or not he has a made flush or not. In the previous hand, the straight draw is more dubious, and won't necessarily bet but take a free card.


So by checking, the money gets in the middle no matter what and you don't chance a raise.


If, in your previous hand, the 4 straight was high cards, 9,10,J,Q for example, your check would be less incorrect. The reason again would be that with high cards and a 4 straight, the money is going into the pot regardless and you don't risk a raise.

NM

Jeff, as a learning low stakes player myself here's what I think: there is no "correct" way to play these situations. On the face of it there's about $45 in the pot once your opponent bets on 6th so

you should call if you feel the combined 10-1 odds against your boat and indeterminate odds that your opponent does not have his flush add up to 4.5-1. Of course, if you make your boat you can probably get two bets on the end so your implied odds are better

(since you'll only lose one bet by calling when you miss). These kind of calculations can be complicated, but most of us who enjoy poker enough to play it regularly can do them. The key to playing for serious money and being a winner over time is (a) knowing yourself, (b) knowing the other players and (c) knowing the situation. Just reading your post, once that fourth spade hit on 6th street you knew you were beat. The pot wasn't so huge that you should grasp any slim hope of winning. I'd advise you to play only when you are feeling good and alert and to trust your instincts (after doing the calculations). When in doubt, consider how much you'll lose by making a folding error vs. a calling error. In this case, it wasn't a huge disparity (slightly better than 2-1).

I think you should bet when there is a THREE flush on the board, but not always when there is a fourflush. If the pot is big enough to warrant playing for the boat then the correct play is to check and call. Also against many players you are probably correct to check and fold in a small pot if they will only bet if they have a flush.


You should bet if you are in a situation where you can fold if raised, i.e. if the pot is small. If your opponent raises then you know you are against the flush. If you bet and he called you would still lose the same amount of money on sixth street, but can avoid a crying call for the size of the pot on the river. The reason to bet on sixth street against a threeflush is that you do not want to give a free card, AND that if you do fill you will get an extra bet. Many players will almost always bet if you check and they are right to do so most times. Plus, with a pair on board your opponent may fear that you have the boat already and may check the river if you do not fill.


Good luck,

Pat

I went back to read your other post and I see that it is a low straight draw with a dead 6. This is a weaker hand, and a straight draw will usually take the free card rather than bet. In 7CSFAP there is discussion about when your opponent will always bet his draw rather than check, and that is when you should check and call, if the pot is large enough.


One play I make is to RAISE when a flush draw bets into me on sixth street and I have two pair, since it prevents a river bet. If he would bet the river you have to call, so if you do not raise you lose two bets when you do not fill. Note that this is the same whether you bet on sixth street or not. The big difference is that when you fill you can bet and he will call, making you an extra bet. I think this is a fairly routine play that you should make part of your arsenal against the right players. You should be thinking about these scenarios when you are away from the table, i.e. whether to bet on sixth street against a fourflush against a certain type of player. Your game will certainly improve.


Pat

I really don't like the idea of "im going to bet and fold if im raised." in 7stud. (Im not too crazy about in holdem either).


IN stud the pots are bigger, and if you check and call in dangerous situations where are a slight favorite or a big underdog (Like in this post) you are doing MUCH better than if you bet and fold for a raise. ALso appreciate the fact if people get hip to the idea that you often do this (bet and fold to raise) you will start getting raised and dumping the best hand all too often. "A mathematical catastrophe" as some like to say.


I understand no one likes it when they give a free card to a weak hand, and if you are really on top of your players and know they won't raise unless you are beat AND you havenot made the pot big enough to chase then I can see this. BUt in general I don't like it. (The guy w/the 4 flush could just have a pair and an over card and think he could draw out, and you could fold if he raises.... an almost textbook semibluff).

Dear Jeff,

I feel your 6th street dilema was a result of your action on fourth street. Remember you started the discussion with the statement "I raised on 3rd street and every one folded up to " a sensible player "who has a weakness for drawing hands" Well what is a "sensible player" going to call with? Answer: Trips, Pocket Aces,Pocket kings, and a live flush with 2 overcards. If there had been a bring in (which there wasn't) a good player who has already invested a partial bet would have completed the bet with live split fours which had a live ace or king in the hole,and possibly a live split pair of fours with a live suited connector but that's a little bit of a stretch. But remember that since this is a $5-$10 game and "he has a weakness for draws" there still was a good chance he had called with a split pair with a suited connector.You stated that you don't "remember seeing any spades out which even increased the chance that he had a live flush draw ,or a live pair with a live two flush.

On forth street you catch a brick and he catches a distant suited conector. You bet (there are plenty of good players that would have checked in your place here, "I would have" and I think that this is where you lost control of the hand)he calls so he probably doesn't have trips,Kings, Aces or a four flush. A good player would have raised with a bigger pair or trips for value,and would have raised with the four flush to get a free card. So what is his most likely hand? Answer a three flush with a pair! Now on fifth street you bet into his probable four flush with a pair or made flush. You should have checked you were not a significant enough favorite and put your self in jepordy of being raised on fifth, or having your opponent fill on 6th (which he did) and force you to either fold or play a hand with negative mathmatical expectations. Now what would a conservative player have done? He would have checked on 4th street, to be certain that his opponent wasn't slow playing an over pair and force his opponent to declare the strength of his hand. If he had a four flush ,Aces ,Kings, or a set he would have had to bet or miss a bet which a sensable player wouldn't have done. If he had only a small pair and a three flush he should have checked into the probable overpair.But since you came out betting you lost your opportunity to find out the strenght of his hand.

Then when he improved on fifth street. You could have checked again. If he had come out betting on fourth and then improved on 5th you could have droped the hand without having invested too much into the hand.If he had checked on fourth street you could check and call on fifth knowing that he didn't have his flush made yet.

Then when he made his hand on 6th you could have dropped the hand with confidence knowing that you were significantly behind.(you would have known you had pot odds of 8 to 1 and drawing to odds of 11 to 1) But since you did't get a read on his hand on fourth street, you never knew exactly where you stood through out the rest of the hand. In my opinion you created your 6th street dilema by your action on fourth. If I am correct, welcome to the club, because God knows we all make plenty of mistakes.


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ

I think you misunderstand my position. I do not think you should automatically fold in this situation when raised. I am merely saying that if there is a threeflush or straight on your opponents board it is better to bet than to check and call. If you decide that the pot is small or that the situation warrants a fold then so be it. If you think that your opponent will raise with a made flush on sixth street and you do not have the odds to draw to a full house it is better to bet. If you get raised you can safely fold, and if you do not get raised then you know where you stand.


Pat

Dear Jeff,

In the previous hand, a reasonable player would have

had three sequencial ranked cards to start with a three straight

on 3rd.

After back-tracking to your opponent's 3rd. st. starter cards, I not


read him for a straight.


Sitting Bull

Dear Doc,

Excellent analysis!

You seem to eat,drink,and sleep stud!


Sitting Bull

Thank you for your fabulous analysis, it has been a great help. One question I have though is why you would check 4th into a probable 4 flush; I would think you can't afford to give a free card here, but maybe that thinking is flawed....I like your thinking on the later streets.


Jeff

Dear Siting Bull, Thank you for your comment. You are right I love stud. I love the challenge, and the fact that no mater how much you learn there always is something new to learn.


Dear Jeff, Thank you for your comments. You raise a good question on checking into two suited cards on forth street with Queens. We need to remember that in this case you had a greater than average chance of playing against a hand which was on a flush draw. The second factor was that you had Queens. The mathematically reality is that the "delta factor" (or change in win ability) between Aces and Queens is the same, as the change in the win ability between Queens and Sevens. Or put another way mathematically there are only 2 "legitimate big pairs" Aces and Kings. So Queens need to be played much more delicately than Aces or Kings. Had you had Aces for example, you would not have had to worry about the possibility of your opponent having Aces or Kings in the hole, or of playing against a split pair with an Ace or King in the hole, which could turn into a significant problem if your opponent hits an Ace or King during the hand. Had you had Aces or Kings in this hand it would have been strong enough to bet into the possible flush draw on fourth street. Had that been the case your opponent couldn't have raised a solid player on the draw because the solid player would have raised him right back.


And finally there is often more than one good way to play a hand. And much is dependent on your intuition (which is a real and important factor)


Most sincerely,


Doc AZ

I think it is a big mistake to check in this situation with a pair of Q's. Why would you give a free card to a player you know is on a draw? Unless his hand is completely live,you are the favorite if he does not have overcards. Many players, myself included, typically raise with a live threeflush and an A on third so there is a good chance that he does not have overcards. It may be at most a small mistake to bet if it turns out that your opponent does have an overcard or two, or if he has a flush with a smallpair. But it is a much bigger mistake in my estimation to give a free card to such a player.


ALso you must keep in mind that a raise by your opponent on fourth street may be a free card play so even if you are raised if he does not catch a suited card on fifth street you must still bet.


Pat