Dow Points to Kerry Victory

[SinCityGuy]

Forget that meaningless Redskins trend, here's one that actually has some validity.

According to a recent study by the Hirsch Organization, publishers of the Stock Trader's Almanac, if the Dow loses more than 0.5 percent of its value in the month of October before Election Day, then an incumbent president is going to lose his job. The Dow fell 0.52 percent in October.

This predictor has been true without exception from 1904 to the present, according to Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac and president of the Hirsch Organization.

Dow points to Kerry? (http://money.cnn.com/2004/10/29/markets/election_dow/index.htm)

[Non_Comformist]

actually this is as meaningless as the Redskin superstition.

[MMMMMM]

I posted before about a similar study done on the time frame between the RNC and Election Day. Supposedly this stock market indicator has had a success rate of 80% (if I recall correctly).

[citanul]

nuh uh!

it's got 30 years more validity than the redskins indicator.

thus, clearly more a better system!

end sarcasm.

citanul

[Senor Choppy]

An index that represents some of the biggest US corporations gaining or losing value in the month before an election is just as useless as whether or not a professional football team wins 2 days before the election?

[Non_Comformist]

[ QUOTE ]
An index that represents some of the biggest US corporations gaining or losing value in the month before an election is just as useless as whether or not a professional football team wins 2 days before the election?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes and it should be pretty obvious as to why.

[adios]

Not only that the Dow is price weighted index not a market cap weight index.

[Michael Davis]

No, actually it is obvious that you are guilty of hyperbole.

The value of this particularly could be debated and dismissed, but ANY economic indicator is not as useless as the results of a football game.

-Michael

[Non_Comformist]

Convinced now?