Pumping 2nd Nut on River , no good?

I am in SB w/ KKQ9-KQs. Fishy holdem player(FHP) limps UTG - plays draws way to far, chases Running lows - plays good holdem hands top pair top kicker etc.


General Loose Passive calls(LP), Decent player - plays fishy cards but plays reasonably well after the flop(DP) and one other loose player calls.


I call in SB and BB who is usually plays reasonable cards but is pretty unimaginative if he ever bets - calls a lot, checks. Anyone raise here for value? I didn't think it was a good idea, but wasn't 100% sure.


Pot : 6 SB.


Flop KT6 - rainbow. I bet, looking to jam w/ my Top Set and Gut shot straight draw(didn't like the gutshot as it was non-nut, but did have 2 of the high straight cards as defense).


BB folds. Rest call.

Pot : 11 SB.


Turn - 2 - rainbow. Board : KT62 rainbow. I bet, thinking I can jam w/ one of the fishies that has nut low draw, and get help moving out some not nut low - gutshot type hands or high only open - ended straight hands. FHP raises, I put him on nut low, maybe nut low w/ 2 pair or something. One fold, rest call, I re-raise and all call.


Pot: 35SB - 4 players remain.


River - 8. This puts the low out there, but I've now got the 2nd nuts, losing only to a 97 straight. I go ahead and bet, FHP raises(I give him credit for nut low - he's realized that quartering 4 way is not bad so he pumps it nut low w/ 4 or more in), all call, I re-raise, he caps, all call. I figured one of the callers for the low(maybe not nut, but second nut) and one for some other craps (set or second nut low) who was very unhappy about calling all the action.


Was I out of line pumping on any of the streets? Also - should I have just check-called the river? I thought that would give up too much as I could easily get multiple bets from the losing lows or from the losing high.


Results to follow.

All call the river capped.


FHP has A379 for nut-nut. One other player has A378 and the other has TTxx for middle set.


So I was if either a 8 or 9 hit on the river. The player who folded on the turn said he had QJ and folded the open-ender.


These situations are arising a lot in my game - I am pumping non-nut hands b/c I know the fish will call caps w/ crap hands like bottom set, top two, 2nd nut low draw before the river and will call 2nd nut 2nd nut, 2nd low - nut straight w/ flush out, middle set etc for caps on the river. But lately, I've been runnning into nut - nut much more.


Thanks.

Against a bunch of people and only one raiser who almost certainly has the nut low, I'd have gone ahead and 3-bet the river. I lost track of the number of opponents but if there are 5 of them then you are getting 2.5:1 for your money.


I would have been tempted to check-raise on the river since the nut low to your left is sure to bet.


- Louie

Whale - The flop is K-T-6-rainbow and you hold K-K-Q-9.


You bet the flop and four of your opponents call. No one else can have top set. What cards could they be holding?


A-Q-J-X is a hand someone might play after this flop. In that case, ace, queen, jack or nine on the turn or river would make someone a straight.


Many Omaha-8 players go through a developmental stage where they simply won’t play starting hands with with more than one seven eight or nine. Players may also go through a stage where they won’t play a starting hand with any seven, eight, or nine. Perhaps you have been in one or both of these developmental stqges yourself (or are there now). In a game with many players who don't play starting hands with middle cards, the field is probably limited before the flop and you can push your flopped set of kings. However, it doesn’t seem as though that is the case in the game you are describing.


If we allow your opponents to have hands with more than one seven, eight and/or nine, what would they need to sensibly play for one bet after this flop? How about 9-8-7-X? In that case someone would make a straight with a nine, eight, or seven on the turn or river.


Notice that at this point (after the flop) any middle or high card on the turn or river that doesn’t pair the board (any 7, 8, 9, J, Q, or A) enables a straight. Any non-pairing low card on the turn will put two low cards on the board. With two low cards on the board after the turn, looking ahead, you can see that any non-pairing card on the river will enable a straight.


Thus you don’t like any low, middle or high card that does not pair the board on the turn. Notice that at this point (after the flop) there are only 7 cards that pair the board on the turn. You don’t like any of the other 38 cards. The odds are thus 38 to 7, or greater than five to one that you will dislike the turn.


Even so, I think you want to bet this flop, almost regardless of your opponents. Holding the nuts after the flop, your goal is to win the pot with your flop bet. If all your opponents don’t concede the pot to you, you want to limit the field because your set of kings gets better as the field gets smaller. You want everyone who is drawing to pay through the nose for their draws.


Thus you (properly IMHO) bet the flop. You get four callers. Ugh. Too bad. Four callers is not at all what you wanted when you bet this flop. If you had known you would get four callers, you would have been better off to check the flop.


The turn is a deuce, one of the cards you didn’t want. Ugh. (Don't let your dismay show). At this point (after the turn) only one card, the case king, will give you the nuts on the river. Nine other cards on the river, any ten, six, or deuce, make you the top full house, a probable winner. You probably will scoop with any of these 10 cards on the river.


That makes 10 cards you like on the river and 34 cards you don’t like. If you jam the betting on the turn, even if you miss making a full house on the river, you’ll almost be stuck calling with your set of kings, because of the size of the pot.


Now, considering the above, do you really want to even bet the turn, let alone jam it?


When the board does not pair on the river, someone may well have the nuts for high. Given your description of your opponents, I'd estimate the odds of an opponent holding 9-7 as about even. Also given your description of your opponents and the number of them still in the hand, you should perhaps be worried about a raising war developing between two of them, one with the nut low and the other with the nut high, or even between two opponents who each hold the nut low. Because of the size of the pot, you probably will have to call a bet or even a double bet. Your goal on the river should be to hold the betting down. I don't know how you best accomplish that goal, given your opponents. Betting yourself may do it. I don't know. However, your re-raise on the river is strictly kamakazi.


Just my opinion.


Buzz

The advice here about not betting/raising on 4th street is loopy in my opinion. You are getting 4 to 1 on any further bets you put in, assuming that all the other players call. You are only about 3 to 1 against filling up. It's possible that filling up won't win, but it very probably will. If you fill up, there will be no low and you will scoop, of course.


So you should bet and raise based on the chances of filling up alone. But in addition, although in theory any non-pairing card can make a straight, it's not likely that they all really will. So you are bound to have some other outs for half the pot. And a T makes you a straight, albeit only second nut.


AND all the backdoor low draws would just love to get a free card to take half the pot. You'd be crazy to give it to them.


AND there may well be one or two gutshot high draws who called on the flop for some reason. You should not give them a free card either.


I'm not sure about letting it get capped on the river, on the other hand, especially when there was a chance to close the action after the FP's raise cam back to you, but the willingness to CONSIDER re-raising without the nuts is a sign of a good player, in my view.


You just can't always assume that every scare card hit someone, especially a somewhat unlikely one which in the present case would only hit someone who was drawing to the ignorant end of the straight. I think on the end you just have to ask what the chances of FP having 79 are (clearly no one else has it), and then take into account the price. Assuming FP is going to re-re-raise whether he has 79 or only A3, and that the others will both call all bets (is that really certain?), then you are going to put in 2 extra bets in any event, which you will lose if FP has 79, while you will get 4 out of the extra 8 bets put in if he does not, for a profit of 2. So it's even, moneywise.


NB I wrote the last paragraph after a couple of drinks and I'm not exactly 100% about the maths in it as a result. But 4th street I'm clear about.


Oh no!! Not again!


PS Similar deal on the flop as the turn. 4 callers when you are about 2 to 1 against filling up by the river is fabulous where the FH means definitely no low and is almost certainly good for high. No free cards!!

Oh No - Do you think Whale will need to improve the set of kings to win in the loose game he has described? Keep in mind that if the board does not pair on the river, any river card creates a situation where the nuts for high will be a straight.


If Whale needs to improve, then isn’t he on a draw (or redraw) himself?


Assuming the board pairs on the river, Whale will win for high unless an opponent makes quads. With 10 outs, the odds of Whale improving his set of kings are 3.4 to 1 against. Taking into account the liklihood of an opponent making quads in this game if the board pairs on the river, I think the odds of Whale scooping if the board pairs on the river are roughly 3.5 or 3.6 to 1 against.


Let’s isolate the turn bet. (I think we can isolate the turn bet if Whale is going to call on the river regardless of the circumstances). Since Whale will scoop if the river card is favorable, when Whale has four opponents who stay to see the river card, Whale is getting 4 to 1 turn bet odds on every turn dollar invested. Since the odds of the board pairing and Whale subsequently scooping are about 3.5 to 1, I agree Whale would seem to have the best of it by jamming on the turn.


However, (1) Whale is not guaranteed four opponents on the turn, and even more importantly, (2) we can only isolate the turn bet if we are planning to call on the river regardless of the circumstances.


Mucking a set of kings on the river seems unwise to me if the pot is jammed on the turn. There will simply be so much in the pot that Whale will tend to be stuck in the hand. When the pot becomes large enough, and when Whale misses on the river, even though he suspects an opponent has him beaten, he would probably be wise to forget about superior poker skill and simply call, just in case he is wrong about his read of the opponent.


However, (1) when the pot is not too large, and (2) when Whale has a reasonable feel for which cards his opponents hold, he is not necessarily stuck on the river.


If Whale had a nut flush on the turn, then jamming, even though the board might pair on the river, would make more sense. A principal difference between jamming on the turn against four opponents when holding the nut flush and when holding the nut set when any river card that does not pair the board enables a straight, is the nut flush is a less vulnerable holding.


As usual, Oh No, you make some good points and I very much appreciate your criticism of my ideas. However, you have not convinced me of the wisdom of jamming the turn here. I think you greatly increase your fluctuations while not substantially increasing your profit, if indeed you increase your profit at all, when you jam on the turn with such a vulnerable hand.


Just my opinion.


Buzz

Buzz, we'll have to agree to differ, but since your previous post appeared to ASSUME 4 callers on 4th street, it would be profitable and right to jam even if your intention was to simply fold on the river if the board did not pair. However, there is obviously also further profit potential if some relatively unlikely straight card comes on the end and you get a chance of a cheap showdown. You DON'T have to call on the end if there is a bet a raise and a re-raise before it gets back to you.


Plus I still think you'd be mad to give all the gutshot straight draws a free or cheap card.


Oh no!! Not again!

Oh No - "Plus I still think you'd be mad to give all the gutshot straight draws a free or cheap card."


Good point.


Buzz

I consider any Omaha posts where you two guys (along with Louie and Ray) post to be a must read. Keep up the good work and good luck in the games.


Regards,


Rick

I have to agree w/ Rick on the value of your posts.


Thanks for the input.

I think you have to jam the turn primarily in order to make any money on this hand, since if the board pairs on the river (or the river is a random high card that miraculously doesn't spike anyone a straight), those 2-3 callers chasing lows will not pay off on the river, since they won't have anything.


I think betting the turn is somewhat higher variance but I'm pretty sure its the right way to go. I don't think you can play O8 giving free cards to low+straight draws on the turn and expect to bet the nuts on the river and get called enough to make any real $.