Home Dogs in week 9, browns/ravens O/U

[MikeyObviously]

Rams +1 to Pats
Bengals +1.5 to Cowboys
Bucs +3 to Chiefs
Steelers +1 to Eagles

I think the Bengals and Steelers are worth at least looking into for upsets. Also the Browns/Ravens O/U is at 35...and I'll be looking into that under as well. Thoughts?

[MikeyObviously]

Looking at the steelers/eagles game in particular, the eagles have had a harder time winning without westbrook, and havn't had a running game. Philly on the road has played cleveland, chicago, and detroit. Meanwhile, the steelers have been beating teams easily that have poor run defense, and looking at the steelers win margin, it is directly correlated to duce staley's yards. The steelers are 3rd in the run with 147 ypg, while the eagles are 20th in run defense at 107 ypg.

Meanwhile the steelers are 3rd against the run giving up 89 ypg. Dick Lebeau's "blitzburg" defense should be in McNabb's face, and are a suprising 9th (193 ypg) against the pass.

Also, averaging out ppg for philly off vs ppg given up by steelers defense and vice versa, I came to 42.45 points. Factoring in the fact I believe the steelers will have success on the ground will slow this game down. With the O/U at 44 in this game, I think it will come down to the following: Donovan's performance and special teams and defensive scoring factors. Since neither team is committing too many turnovers, I don't see a lot of shortened field position for the teams to work with. It could come down to if randel-el can go all the way or a big INT return to push for an over. I'm leaning toward and under as well, but havn't put money on anything YET.

It is only monday, but I'll be looking more into this game. Anyone see something I don't?

[Easy E]

Looks like a pretty good analysis, but what do I know? /images/graemlins/mad.gif

I think this is a game that I stay away from the spread and stick with the o/u